Things that need to happen

Here is my list of things that have to go right for the Pirates this year.

If they are to be above .500 these things must happen:

1. McCutchen needs to hit .300 (or very very close to it). He is the most talented player on the team making him a defacto leader. He has to then show his talent with his play day in and day out. It will be a tone setter. If he hits a sophomore slump, that is all she wrote for the Pirates season.
2. Ryan Doumit has to stay healthy. Doumit does not need to be extraordinary, but he needs to be there in the line up. He is a switching hitting catcher with power. That alone will make pitchers work, and give good pitches to Jones and Milledge. Doumit is also experienced, and his help catching will be invaluable for youngsters like Daniel McCutchen and later Brad Lincoln. If he gets hurt the drop off to Jarmillo is too steep for the Pirates to get to .500.
3. Jeff Clement cannot be a hole in the line up. No team has a shot at making it above .500 if they have two holes in their line up, especially in the National League where the pitcher slot is already there. The Pirates have their hole with Ronny Cedano at Short. Thus, Clement needs to be around a league average hitter. Maybe a little lower if his power numbers are higher than expected. If he is a Steven Pierce .220 type hitter, then the Pirates are in big trouble.
4. The Bullpen needs to be successful. It is deflating to watch leads go away in the late innings. For a team that it is trying to end an atmosphere of losing, it is back breaking. The Pirates have a rebuilt pen and some extra help ready in the minors. They have to hold up. Dotel has to be successful in the closers role and the rest of the pen has to be a little better than league average. The Pirates will be behind enough without the bullpen putting them behind. They don’t have the firepower to overcome late inning screw ups.

For the Pirates to win the Division (this is in addition to the ones above):
1. Garret Jones has to have 100 RBIs. If Jones gets to 100 RBIs it means he is a solid big league player who is getting the hits with people on base, something he lacked last year. It also means he is still getting his fill of solo shots. Pitchers will be paying special attention, and that is good news for those around him. No one wins divisions without an RBI guy. Jones has to be that for the Pirates.
2. Ross Ohlendorf has to pitch like he did the second half of last year. Every division winning team needs an ace. Someone who can stop losing streaks single handedly. If Ohlendorf pitches like he did at the end of last season, then the Pirates will have their ace. Better yet, if it is Ohledorf then the Pirates are in better shape because you can be fairly certain that Malholm and Duke are going to produce decent years for you. That would give the Pirates three decent pitchers starting for them. It is a must that Ohlendort duplicate his success.
3. Milledge has to hit in the .280’s or above. The Pirates are going to have a solid top three or four (especially if number 1 in this list is true), but to be great they need more than that. Milledge is the bridge. If the number 5 hitter is hitting well, then it sets the plate for the bottom of the order that can come through from time to time, and it usually means he will get his share of RBIs as well knocking in the top half of the order. A fifth person to worry about in the Pirate order would help wear down starters and get to the bullpens faster.
4. Pedro Alvarez has to provide offensive pop. Alvarez is coming no matter what this year. So when he gets here he cannot fizzle. He has to be able to take over a few games by himself and provide solid offensive threats in the other games. His arrival will breath life in the Pittsburgh fans temporarily. However if he is slamming the ball around that life will not fade away. Another big bat is an important part of winning the division. Alvarez can easily provide it.