Our Minor League System

Yes ladies and gents, it is about time for Spring Training to get under way. Minor League rankings are out, and the Pirates's system rankings 12. To me that is too low. I am biased, but still, I think it is low. There are also lots of prospect rankings out there, but this is my favorite so far. It is the kindest to the Pirates because it ranks Luis Heredia, and ranks him well. He does not make anyone else's list. So based on my limited knowledge I will give my top 10.

1. Padres - They have no super great A+ prospects, but have 10 top 100 prospects, or at least 9. That is really good. No one else comes close to that many. I put them at #1. Of course with all the trading they have been doing the last year they had better be #1.

2. Blue Jays - supposedly they have crazy depth, but they only have 5 Top 100 prospects, and one of those is real near the bottom. Travis D'Arnaud is good and an A type prospect, but I am not sure that they are better than the Padres.

3. Royals - They were #1 last year, but put a lot of guys in the majors that drop them. The addition of Bubba Starling ought to prevent them from dropping too far. Odorizzi is under rated in my opinion, and Mike Motgomery, who had control problems last year, should still be considered a potential star. He still struck out 7.7 per 9 innings, and was a top 20 prospect last year for Baseball America and is not top 100 this year. Even without Motgomery they put 5 in the Top 100.

4. Athletics - Billy Beane packs them in. He puts 7 in my favorite list, although one could make an argument there are only 5 solidly on the list. Still that is a lot and it is enough to crack the top 5.

5. Rays - Matt Moore is great. No doubt. They only put one other guy on this Top 100, but look at the 2011 draft class. They signed ten guys higher than Josh Bell. Now, they are probably not all better than Bell, but they are not chopped liver either. This group is going to produce results. They seem to always have some talent waiting in the wings, and I am going to put faith in their system and put them up at 5.

6. Rangers - Profar is the big name here, but there are 5 guys in the Top 100. They have shown themselves to be a system that can find and develop talent. The Rangers just missed the Top 5, and are probably interchangeable with the Rays here.

7. Mariners - Two top 20 prospects and 4 top 100. I sort of think Hultzen is underrated as well, so the Mariners are looking good with their talent. High ceilings abound.

8. Pirates - Yes, I think we have the 8th best system. We are short on hitting, but not as short as some of the others, and we have 4 legit possible aces in the system (one of which does not make the top 100). This ranking has 6 Pirates in the Top 100. I down grade us a little because we have some depth issues, and Owens probably took a hit in his status this past year, but overall we have a great system. Allie and Dickerson are not on the top 100 list, but are high ceiling guys. Our Latin America program ought to start really paying off soon as well.

9. Cardinals - As much as it pains me to say it the Cardinals have a good organization. Shelby Miller is good, and they have a total of 5 on this Top 100 list. Probably a bit more balance over all than us, but I don't think they are better than us.

10. Nationals - I was pretty torn here, but I am going Nats. Harper needs no comment and may be the best overall prospect. I think Rendon is low at 26 and Purke is clearly a top 100 guy. They have a few other guys who are not off this list by much.

Now it is hard to make huge argument if you wished to put the Diamondbacks at 10, but I think the fact the Nats have great hitters and a pitcher and the Diamondbacks only have three great pitchers makes the Nats system better. PItching beats hitting, but only once every five games. Thus, the Braves follow behind the Diamondbacks with the same problem. Red Sox are decent, and you could throw in Twins to round out my Top 15.

Trade for McGee and 25 man roster

The Pirates have traded for 3B Casey McGee from the Brewers for Jose Veras. I think that this is a great trade because McGee has power and can hit .280. Last year his thumb injury hurt his stats. It gives us real insurance against another Pedro failure. It gives us an option to platoon Jones at 1B. I like this a lot because I think Veras was over used last year and is due for a flame out this year. If not then it is a pretty fair deal for both teams. We have replacements for Veras since Meek is back, and we need the power hitting. The Brewers just signed Amaris Rameriz, so they don't need McGee.

This means your opening day roster will probably look like this.

OF - Tabata
OF - Presley
OF - McCuthen
3B - Alvarez
SS - Barmes
2B - Walker
1B - Jones (platoon)
C - Barajas
UI - Nunez
UI - Navarro
1B, 3B - McGee
C - McKenry
OF - McClouth

SP - Erik Bedard
SP - Kevin Correia
SP - Jeff Karstens
SP - James McDonald
SP - Brad Lincoln
SP - Charlie Morton (starts out on DL for about a month)
RP - Daniel McCutchen
RP - Tony Watson
RP - Evan Meek
RP - Joel Hanrahan
RP - Jason Grilli
RP - Chris Resop
RP - OPEN SPOT (my guess Moskos)
The last one is an open spot because it is unclear who they are going to put here, and they may even still sign a lefty for the bullpen. Chris Leroux could go here, but they have shown signs of putting him back as a starter, which means he would need to start out in the minors to stretch his arm. Hurdle has spoken of his desire to have 2 lefties in the pen which means that Daniel Moskos should have the inside track, but Justin Wilson is an option as well. Wilson might benefit from coming out of the pen for a while at the AAA level since he was a starter last year until the September call up. Bryan Morris has an outside shot at this spot as well since he was made full time bullpen last year.

That is a pretty good team with a AAA infield of Harrison, D'Arnaud, Mercer, and Hague. I like it. Gorkys is ready in the outfield and hopefully Lambo will have a bounce back year. Jeff Locke, and Rudy Owens are potentials for the rotation before the year is out.

Winter Meetings 2011

The Winter Meetings were great this year for the Pirates. The Pirates were really the only team that got better. Maybe you could say the Cubs got better with the signing of DeJesus to play RF. But that is pretty minor for what happened with the Pirates and what the Cubs needed.

First off the Cards were ruined. Pujols went to the Angels. So, that is a large chunk of offense gone and makes a declining Matt Holiday even more vulnerable. The Brewers were taken to the cleaners by K-Rod who accepted their arbitration offer. This will cripple them financially. They did not resign Prince Fielder, nor did they sign one of their other bullpen guys. The Reds basically stood pat. And the Astros did little because they are still under several bad contracts. They have some trade interest for some pitching, but they have not pulled the trigger yet, which should make them worse for this year, and then they will be gone. The Cubs signed DeJesus, but they also traded Tyler Colvin and LeMahieu for Ian Stewart. Stewart will replace Aramis Ramieriz at 3rd, but this is not a great upgrade. They were active, but did they get much better, probably not.

Second, the Pirates signed Eric Bedard. Bedard is a health risk, but is immediately the best pitcher on the team. He is the first legitimate top of the rotation guy in years for the Pirates. Now, he can get hurt pretty easy, and it would be silly to expect a full year, but if he could only miss a start or two by the trade deadline, he could bring back prospects plural. And if the Pirates are in the thick of things, it would be nice to have him healthy headed into the playoffs. This is clearly the best move of any of the NL Central teams. The Pirates are now ready to make a run at the top spot.

Third, the Pirates did make a Rule 5 selection. Gustavo Nunez is the pick. He is not such a great hitter, but could develop as he is only 23. He can play 2B, 3B, and SS and has played all 3 outfield spots. I don't get it unless the Pirates are hoping to be able to keep him later after dumping him from the roster. This takes Harrison's spot on the 25 man, which I don't see unless they want to get him a few weeks of hitting and starting at AAA while he plays SS and d'Arnaud plays 3B (and Mercer 2B). This would get some consistent practice at the new defensive positions for those guys, but he is not going to make it all year. The Pirates did lose Bret Lorin in the Rule 5, but that was inevitable, and ought to be a sign of a healthy minor league system.

Fourth, the Pirates pulled off a trade that was for today, not for tomorrow. The traded Brooks Pounders (along with Diego Noris who was at his limit of being in the DR) for Yamiaco Navarro. Navarro has a .260 type bat with a strike out problem, but real power potential. He is our back 3B and a power threat off the bench. I am okay with this move only because Navarro is major league ready now. I am higher on Pounders than most. I think he can be a legit 3rd starter because of his ground ball rate and the improvement in his fast ball. But looking at our system, Pounders is not as a good prospect as Cole, Taillon, Cain, Von Rosenburg, McPherson and Kingham and Heredia are younger, but better. Might as well as trade him for a guy who can contribute right now.

You have got to like what the Pirates did, and what the rest of the NL Central did not do. Now some Free Agents are still out there, so it is not over by a long shot, but I am excited already for the Pirates.

CBA not that bad

I have been a way for a while. I apologize for that. But it seems like a time to give some thoughts about the Pirates and the CBA. Overall I don't think it is that bad for the Pirates.

Now the new CBA has a slotting system with a minor tweak here or there. That is no doubt bad for the Pirates. They will be given a set amount for the first 10 rounds. If you don't sign a guy you lose his money no matter what. If you sign a guy under the slotted amount, you can carry that over to sign other guys over the slot. If you go over by a certain percent you are taxed 100% on it. If you go over too much then you lose a 1st round pick next year. If you go over a lot you lose 1st round pick the next two years. This is bad, bad, bad for the Pirates. Not good, but not bad for teams always picking at the back of the draft, and out right great news for College Seniors who will see themselves get drafted higher now.

However, some okay things are in there. There were some changes to the Type B free agency and comp picks that won't hurt. Also there is a draft lottery that would give small market and losing teams an extra pick or so. This is good news for small market clubs like the Pirates. More picks means quicker filling up of a depleted minor league system.

The best news in the CBA is the International signing system. Now all International players will be in one common pool. That means less money spent on scouting in Latin America. No more advantage for teams like the Rangers who were far sighted enough to really pour money into Latin America. There is also a set amount that you can spend on players out of this pool, and it is a higher amount for bad teams like the Pirates. Also, if you want you can trade money in the International pool to other teams. This means if a big name prospect has made it clear he is not going to sign with the Pirates. The Pirates can give the money to an AL team for a A ball player or something in order to make sure the prospect signs with an AL team rather than an NL competitor. Instead of just losing out on signing a guy, we can get an A ball player for it. Not bad.

In the end the advantages picked up in the International market I think out weigh the hard slotting system of the CBA. The Pirates ought to benefit. Especially if you think that one day the Pirates will not be picking in the top 10. If we get competitive the International Market becomes vastly more important than the Draft.

The other thing that this can do is encourage the Pirates to sign free agents. I don't think the GM's will like the new system, but I think owners do. Now owners can know how much they are going to spend on international signings and the draft because it is basically slotted for them. This part of their budget is now fixed. No more needing to hold back 10 million because you need to sign the number 1 over all pick. You now know exactly what he is worth. That can save you a couple of million that you can plug back into the current major league product via free agency.

I also think holding down the signing bonuses of guys who have not played pro-ball will help keep prices low in the free agent market at the major league level. Having huge bonuses and MLB contracts for guys in the draft will eventually make mediocre guys in the bigs want to get more money.

So overall this deal is not bad, maybe even slightly helpful. If you think that the Pirates are going to be bottom of the barrel for a while and will have a decade worth of top draft picks then it looks like a bad deal. However, as soon as the Pirates turn competitive, this will look much better or at least not hurt so much in the draft. Even then we could get an extra pick in the draft lottery for our small market.

This CBA puts the focus now a lot more on good scouts rather than big bucks. We will see how that works out of the Pirates.

Minor League Review: West Virginia

The Power are the team that actually had me the most depressed as they were stacked coming in. But then you kind of realize they were decimated by promotions and it tempers one's angst.

Pitchers:
Jameson Taillon - He had high expectations, and he did not exceed them. But he probably met them. A 97:22 K:BB rate is amazing and was the second best on the team. His hits allowed were a little high, but the insistence on throwing fast balls is mostly responsible for that. Maybe one would like to have seen a few more innings, but pitch counts kept him removed often. His last start was dominate, and he is ready for the next jump.

Zack Von Rosenburg - Zack had a horrible start to the season getting beat around. His fastball was up. He gave up 19 HRs, but only 23 walks (part of a 114:23 K:BB ratio). He needs to work on getting his pitches down. He showed improvement in the last part of his season, so there is good hope here. One still needs to hope for an increase in velocity as well.

Colton Cain: Cain was great. Everything you wanted him to be. He maxed out some innings and got sent to the pen, which gave him a few bad outings toward the end of the year, but Cain was dominate. 81:33 ratio is good and shows that Cain has the speed and the ability to strike guys out.

Brooks Pounders: He was the big surprise. He added speed on the fastball and looked great. 72:14 ratio is very good. He did it mostly out of the pen, but there is room to squeeze him back into the starting picture next year. It was an exciting year for his development.

Tyler Waldron: He started here and was okay. Nothing great. But he got promoted. He looks more like a bullpen guy, and one who needs more strikeouts.

Brandon Crumpton: He was demoted to the bullpen after a horrible start. He was great there, got back into the rotation, rattled off several amazing wins in a row striking out people, and got promoted. Great year for Crumpton.

Zack Dodson: 46:15 in 66 innings is not bad. He was injured and had a long come back, but was doing well before the injury and did well after. He has pitched his way into nice looking prospect status.

Victor Black: He made it through a season without getting injured and that might have been the most important thing. He needs to work on his control giving up too many walks, but he did get a late season promotion to Bradenton. Probably a bullpen guy with nice heat. One thing worth mentioning is he did not give up a homer at West Virginia. Only one at Bradenton. Keeping the ball in the park is good.

Hitters:
Matt Curry - He will be discussed elsewhere. Needless to say, he was great in WV with an OPS north of 1.

Dan Grovatt - He had a very consistent year. He was constantly between .280 and .300. He drew lots of walks, hit for some surprising power with 8 HRs and a good double total. Plus he has the arm to stick in a corner outfield spot.

Drew Maggi - He was freezer cold for the first month or so of the season, which tells you how good he was to the end as he earned the promotion for the last few games. His defense is supposedly good enough to stick at short, but was still a bit error prone. Some of that I think was his bad plate performance affecting his defense. Did show some double/triple potential as well. Good speed.

Justin Howard - The concern was his power, which he showed hints of during this season with doubles and the long ball, but now his average needs to improve. Still, this year has to be a success for Howard.

Kwami Elmsely-Pai - This guy was blazing at the beginning of the year despite not getting a lot of playing time. He did cool down, but was still good enough to go up a level next year. His defense also seemed strong. Considering we picked him up for nothing, it was a great season.

Mel Rojas Jr. - Obviously a bit disappointing, but he too started very cold. He needs to work on plate discipline as his strike out total was too high. However, he has speed. And one can expect his plate discipline to improve as he is still pretty young. Not a great season, but not a failure either.

There were some real disappointments such as Eric Avilia. Wow. The kid had shown power and decent hitting, but was just awful. Did end strong enough to almost get to .215, but not quite. He also had over 20 errors. That is just plain bad. But the real prospects at this level did okay to good with a few greats scattered in there.

Minor League Review: State College

Ross Ohlendorf just pitched his first homer, and got a win. Good news for the Pirates. I still think you let him go during the off season, but hey, it is still nice.

State College was not very good this year, and a lot of that was the result of getting only 4 seniors in the draft. But, I am still higher on what was at State College than most. Let's take a look.

Pitchers:
It is true that there were not a lot of break out seasons here except Nick Kingham, but they were not disastrous either.

Nick Kingham:
He had a 1.10 WHIP and a 47:15 K:BB ratio. He threw in the low 90's and looked great after a shaky first start. He could very well be a top 10 prospect.

Stetson Allie:
Disappointing in some ways because of his hype, but we all knew he had command problems. He walked 29 and struck out 28. The command problems were there. Still, the dominance was also there. His fastball sits at 95, and when he is on, he is going to blow away the competition. He has plenty of time to get control of his walk total. So, I think he had a better season than most do. The walks were to be expected. He also seemed to be improving a bit until they moved him to the pen so as not to overload his innings. The adjustment to coming in from the pen was rough. July was 15 strikeouts to 10 walks with 5 starts. No starts in August resulted in 12 walks and only 6 strikeouts. That hurt his numbers a bit, so it is not as bad as it might look.

Ryan Hafner:
I am a little higher on Hafner than others as well. His fastball is still high 80's, and that will never get it done even out of the pen. Still he pulled off a 1.19 WHIP and a 31:20 K:BB. That is too many walks, but an impressive number of strikeouts considering he was not overpowering anyone. Remember he came from high school, so I think power can come with age. It might have been that some of his walks were nibbling at corners. I still think he adds power, and then he can be real good.

As for what we got in the draft, I do like Josh Poythress as a future reliever. A 29:10 K:BB is not a bad start. I am not ready to give up on Matt Benedict either. A 39:15 K:BB is enough to keep me watching and hoping, but he gave up far too many hits.

Hitters:
Alex Dickerson:
He came late to the league, but was as advertised. .313 AVG, .886 OPS with 3 HRs. He has to learn 1B, so his defense is below average, but his bat looks great.

Samuel Gonzalez:
He thrived at this level. He hit over .300 and only struck out 15 times, which is a big thing. Add in 14 walks, and I like his plate presence. Needs more power, and needs to play better defense, but it was a good year for him.

Wes Freeman:
Now I am not as high on Freeman as others. He was repeating this league, so he should have dominated it. Still, he hit 6 homers and hit .303. His defense is good enough for the corner outfield. You have to call this a success.

Now I would not worry about a lot of the others that some are pointing to as disappointing. Dan Gamache hit .231, but he was recovering from a hand injury and only had 20 games to get adjusted. I am also not too worried about Taylor Lewis nor Derek Trent. Trent is not a big time prospect anyway, but it was a major jump in competition for those guys and they had to learn the wooden bat at the same time. They played in lower college conferences as opposed to Dickerson and Gamache. Both showed good plate discipline with Lewis leading the team in walks with 34 and Trent was 4th with 20. Both played good Defense. Lewis also had 7 triples. No kidding. Lewis had 35 hits and 7 of them were triples. 20% of his hits were three baggers. He added on double, and he stole 16 bases (being caught 4 times). His speed should keep him on the prospect radar. Kirk Singer was another draftee who got better as the year went on, so he should not be thrown under the bus.

There were a few huge disappointments. Exicardio Caynoes was awful and thought to be a nice prospect. Junior Sosa should have done better as well. And the Pirates has seen enough of Justin Benscko, as they have him listed as released now. So the team had some disappointments.

My thoughts overall is that this team was weak from the beginning, did not have real good performances from the early signers in the draft, which matched up with disastrous performances from Caynoes and Sosa. They got better, but it was too late to make the team look good. But they showed enough to not be depressed.

Sub .500 again

The Pirates lost the other day and ensured another losing season. A real tough break as it was all the result of one bad stretch in August. Some of it was increased competition, but most of it just came down to injuries and pitching fatigue. More than the blown call in Atlanta I blame the series against the Cubs. Getting swept by them completely deflated me as a fan and probably the team as well. Having Presley out hurt and Derrick Lee out hurt along with Tabata were huge factors. The pen got tired as some of them really failed to produce (Biemel), and Meek's season long injury ended up catching up to the Pirates as they had to over use Veras.

Still in the end, the Pirates are having a better season than last year. It is an improvement, and I think a nice strong finish could really help the team for next year. A lot depends on Alvarez being a major league caliber hitter, but time will tell on that one.