Minor League Troubles?

It has been a while since I posted. I am not going to be able to do so many game posts as I used to, so this blog is now going to have to be a little more big picture. And this far into the season some complaints have come up about the minors. This is usually connected to whether or not the Front Office should be retained or not. So let's look. It is true that the Indianapolis Indians have struggled offensively this year. They have underwhelmed to be sure. However, we should take a closer look. First, the actual prospects have not done horrible. Marte started blazing hot and has cooled. Matt Hague started off in the majors, so has not been down the whole time. But his average is not bad, and I think has earned another call up for the interleague series. We will see about that. Jordy Mercer is hitting well. He had a slump that hurt his overall numbers, but just had a 13 game hit streak. Gorkys at .266 could be better, but he is blocked at the major league level anyway. Chase D'Arnaud is really the only one who should cause worry, and he missed most of the season so far with a concussion. Plus, he has a .292 OBP, which is good when your average is .150. That said, the pitching has been nice. Daniel McCutchen is doing well. Rudy Owens is showing his promise again. Bryan Morris is decent enough out of the pen. Both of those guys have WHIPs under 1, and amazing K/BB ratios. Daniel Moskos is having some control problems, so there is one let down. He needed to step up and earn the second lefty spot in the pen that Hurdle wants so badly. Lincoln was great while he was there. In fact, he never walked anyone in his 12 innings. McPhearson has been out, so that is a loss, but not because he is no longer promising. So overall not so bad. Altoona is the place that we knew would be weak. This hole in the organization predates Neal and the current Front Office and has been moving through the organization. Two years ago it was in WV, last year it was in Bradenton, and this year it is in Altoona. The big disappointment here is the lack of production from Robbie Grossman. But he is still coming off of surgery, so some extra slack time ought to be allotted. Tony Sanchez is the big concern. He is starting to look like a bust. AA has been too much for him. This is the second year in a row he has struggled. He is not even getting as much playing time as one would think any more. He has already sat out over 10 games. So, that is a miss for the Front Office. Other than that the prospects have been good. Brock Holt is hitting well as is Matt Curry. I know a lot of people like Jarek Cunningham, but I have never like him that much. I don't even have him in my top 50. He is doing just about what he always does. Show flashes of power, and hits around .250. However, he has only played in 12 games so, maybe something will change when gets back from the DL. Pitching here has been okay as far as the prospects go. Phil Irwin just got off the DL, and had a good game tonight to earn the win. Brandon Crumpton has given up too many long balls, but has an impressive K/BB rate. No reason to worry about him. The person to watch is Victor Black. He gives up a lot of hits, and that is bad in a reliever. However he has a 21/7 K/BB rate, which is good. Good hard fastball makes him interesting. I believe they have to make a choice about him soon, so watch Black for the rest of the year. Bradenton is where all the eyes are and Cole and Taillon have not disappointed. They are striking out guys a lot. And we are seeing Taillon go deep into games now. Good news. Cain has been less than one might have hoped, but 24/12 is not awful of a K/BB ratio. He has some stuff to work on, but it is far from a prospect busting performance. Tyler Waldron needs to be moved permanently to the pen, and he has made two pen appearances. It is not like that was not expected when he was drafted, so I hesitate to call this a draft bust. Josh Poythress in the pen has pitched his way to interesting prospect status. No runs allowed in 10 innings is nice. The bats could be better. I was hoping for more from Alex Dickerson, who has a strikeout problem and is hitting .252, which happens to be the same average of Dan Grovatt, who I was hoping more from. Drew Maggi started off hot, but is cooling down a bit. The bright spot here is Mel Rojas, who did not look all that good last year. Rojas is hitting .273, but making it even better is his 5 triples. Speed is always good. Rojas has not made a fielding error either. But Rojas needs to be more patient at the plate as he strikes out even more than Dickerson. West Virginia is even more fun to see, and I think the real proof we need to keep the front office. The Latin America players are shinning through here. First, Bell was hitting .267 and that is including a slow start to the first few games. His knee injury does not look too serious, so we should see him again this year. Alen Hansen is unbelievable right now. He has an OPS over 1, but his 17 errors including a recent four error game are a problem. He has hit 6 dingers showing the kind of power one hopes for at this stage of development. Gregory Polanco is almost as impressive with a .299 AVG and 7 homers. Jose Osuna is doing okay as well with a .281 AVG and Junior Sosa is showing back up on the radar with a .297 AVG. And Dan Gamache should not get lost in all of this. He is only hitting .267, but his 12 doubles is interesting. As great as the hitting here has been the pitching has been equally as disappointing. Allie was sent back to extended spring training. He was awful, and had elbow tightness to boot. Nick Kingham has been beat around giving up 6 homers in 8 games, but is sporting a 26/10 K/BB ratio. Zack Dodson also has been hit around with stats very similar to Kingham. Ryan Hafner has missed a few games on account of injury, but looks shaky with only one decent start under his belt. He is not striking guys out either. Matthew Benedict was okay for a while, but has had a couple of rough outings here at the end to show his weakness. Jordan Cooper and Orlando Castro have been disappointments out of the pen as well. No one on this staff can do anything except get beat down. Still let us not forget that we are going to be treated to a lot of high school arms when short season starts. Overall I think it is too early to give up on a Kingham or a Hafner. Arms are not fully mature until about 24. Cole and Taillon look great and on track. There is a great one two. Cain shows promise of being a three man in a rotation. And if we keep turning out players like Hansen, Polanco, and Osuna from our Latin American system, we should be in great shape offensively. Dilsen Herrera should be in rookie ball this year, and it will be neat to see him continue this new tradition. Overall, things look fairly good. If the high school arms flop in the rookie or Low A when those seasons start then we can start to say that maybe we loaded up too much on a gamble that does not look to be paying off. Until then, we should all just relax.

Keep the Faith

A big win tonight giving the Pirates a chance to win the series with the D-Backs. Last time I was trying to decide between optimistic and pessimistic, and one would have to lean more toward pessimism now. However, it can still be said that the Pirates have faced some good pitching, the Phillies, and been on a west coast swing, which this young team has not ever dealt well with. They need to learn how to win on the road, but west coast swings are always rough. But those are mostly excuses.

Tonight, they won and they did so in good fashion. They faced Ian Kennedy, another great pitcher, and they hit him around. He was in line for the loss until a two out, 3-2 pitch from Grilli left the yard. Grilli would get the win to make up for it. The Pirate leader did their job. The team had 13 hits and they were mostly from the middle of the order. Four hits for McCutchen, three from Jones including a homer, and multiple hits from Walker. They pushed each other across the plate all night long. McClouth played for Tabata and had one hit. Tabata pinch hit later and got a walk. After losing the lead and having the game tied at 4, Presley got his first hit of the game, an infield one. Pinch hitter McGehee got a base hit to put runners on the corners and McCutchen's fourth hit of the game was a game winning RBI base hit. Even Alvarez did well. He grounded out twice, poped out once, and gave one a ride to the deep part of the park, but was robbed by the center fielder who hurt himself against the wall making the catch. He also had a nice defensive game. No strikeouts. And we should get a nice diet of righties coming up. Last chance for Alvarez in my opinion. He has to turn it on here against these righties because McGehee is playing great ball. Jones is starting to hit, meaning Alvarez needs to go to the bench or to AAA.

Pitching was great considering. Karsten left after the first inning with shoulder inflammation, which might explain his giving up two runs. He was not himself. Jared Hughes went 2.2, and gave up only one. Watson went 2.1 and gave up none. A nice inning by Meek despite only throwing between 92-94. Grilli was rolling until giving up the surprise homer. Then Hanrahan was no where to be seen, not even in the bullpen. The radio guys theorized it was flu. This gave Juan Cruz a save chance, which he converted in nice style.

Sooner or later other have to hit. Barajas and Barmes in particular. There are not other options to play for those guys. They cannot hit under .100 for much longer. McGehee is the option if Alvarez never gets it right. Tabata I do believe will come around. But if not, Gorkys Hernadez is ready for a shot in the minors, and soon so will Marte. The Pirates need to take this series, but for me the real test starts game after next when division play opens against the Cards at home.

Good or bad?

The Pirates are now 2-2 after another close game out in LA. The Pirates lost 2-1 after giving up another first inning run, and then getting it back in the 7th and giving up a solo homer to lose it in the 8th. They had Presley on with one out in the 9th, but McCutchen grounded into a double play to end the game.

So, the question is whether or not to be very excited about the season or very worried. Let's examine.

Excited:
1. The Pitchers are pitching well. In fact, all of the starting 4 threw quality starts, and Morton looks great in AAA as our 5th guy and AJ Burnett looked good in his first outing after breaking his face in Spring Training.
2. Alvarez has had some good at bats and already hit a homer.
3. Presley and McCutchen are hitting very well.
4. The team is fighting unto the end.
5. Bullpen looks great as usual.
6. Clutch hitting is in abundance.
7. The Pirates started against the Phils and the Dodgers. .500 against them is pretty good.

Worried"
1. There is no way the pitchers will stay this good.
2. We are not scoring very many runs. Take out Game 3 and the Pirates have only scored 3 runs.
3. Garrett Jones looks to be a disaster.
4. Outside of Presley and McCutchen consistent hitting his hard to come by.
5. Power is still a problem.

So it is too early to tell, but the rest of the Central is doing rather well, so we cannot afford a slow start.

Baseball is back!

Opening Day has arrived, and the Pirates drop a heart breaker to the hated Phillies. Still, the Pirates looked good from the mound. Eric Bedard was lights out and gave up one 7th inning run and then the Pirates threw two shut out frames from the bullpen against a very potent offense. Sure the Pirates got both their hits in the first inning and one of them was a real squib, but I feel more confident that the bats will come around against pitchers not named Roy Halladay.

Alvarez looked okay. He did strike out once, but only once against Halladay. That is a good sign, I guess. No errors from him and he helped turn a double play. The Pirates actually have lots of people to back him up this year, so I am not so worried about Alvarez. In fact, I think the Pirates have until they need to add a 5th starter in a few weeks to see if Alvarez is going to stick at the majors. If he is struggling, then he goes down to make room for a returning 5th starter, Charlie Morton. If he is hot, then expect Hague to head back to AAA. It could be Harrison, but I expect they need more back up middle infielders than corner guys. I can't see them dropping Navarro at all.

Still, it is an encouraging start. I am just as excited about watching the minors, but we will get into that another day. Today is about overall predictions.

NL East Champs: Phillies
- the rest of the division is good, but not good enough.
NL Central Champs: Brewers
- Man I hate to say it, but they are probably still the best in the division even without Fielder.
NL West Champs: Giants
- They were down last year because Posey was out. Their pitching is still good enough and their hitting gets an immediate boost with Posey back.
Wild Card: Pirates
- I am going out on a limb and saying the Pirates are going to pull it off. Mostly because of the uneven schedule. Lost of games against the Astros and Cubs, and I think the Cards are really going to struggle. Not so much because they lost Albert, but because they lost LaRussa. That is a bigger deal than most think.

AL East Champs: Rays
- Too much talent and it is not aging like the Red Sox and Yanks.
AL Central Champs: Tigers
- After last year's pitching and the addition of Prince, is there another choice here?
AL West Champs: Angels
- I don't think that this is a sure thing although they upgraded a lot. The Rangers have been very good. However, I do not think Hamilton can go 162 without a serious injury and this year with the better Angels, I don't think the Rangers can survive it.
AL WIld Card: Twins
- Another long shot. But everything went wrong for the Twins last year. Mauer, Morneau, Spam. They all look healthy again. Plus, Nick Blackburn is back and a very underrated pitcher. He is a ground ball guy and so are most of the Twins pitchers. This will be important in a division with a lot of big fly guys like Fielder and Eric Hosmer. I think they still have the best coach in baseball too. Gardinhire is able to get it done.

World Series: Rays and Giants
Champ: Rays

- I do believe this is the year for the Rays. They have great pitching, and they are finally going to put it together in the post season. They will out pitch the Tigers, who are overrated a bit because of their power. I also think the Giants have the pitching to make it all the way again. It is not as good as the year they won it all, but the Phillies are getting older. Their pitching is going to be tested in a great NL Championship match up.

Looking forward to a great season!

Our Minor League System

Yes ladies and gents, it is about time for Spring Training to get under way. Minor League rankings are out, and the Pirates's system rankings 12. To me that is too low. I am biased, but still, I think it is low. There are also lots of prospect rankings out there, but this is my favorite so far. It is the kindest to the Pirates because it ranks Luis Heredia, and ranks him well. He does not make anyone else's list. So based on my limited knowledge I will give my top 10.

1. Padres - They have no super great A+ prospects, but have 10 top 100 prospects, or at least 9. That is really good. No one else comes close to that many. I put them at #1. Of course with all the trading they have been doing the last year they had better be #1.

2. Blue Jays - supposedly they have crazy depth, but they only have 5 Top 100 prospects, and one of those is real near the bottom. Travis D'Arnaud is good and an A type prospect, but I am not sure that they are better than the Padres.

3. Royals - They were #1 last year, but put a lot of guys in the majors that drop them. The addition of Bubba Starling ought to prevent them from dropping too far. Odorizzi is under rated in my opinion, and Mike Motgomery, who had control problems last year, should still be considered a potential star. He still struck out 7.7 per 9 innings, and was a top 20 prospect last year for Baseball America and is not top 100 this year. Even without Motgomery they put 5 in the Top 100.

4. Athletics - Billy Beane packs them in. He puts 7 in my favorite list, although one could make an argument there are only 5 solidly on the list. Still that is a lot and it is enough to crack the top 5.

5. Rays - Matt Moore is great. No doubt. They only put one other guy on this Top 100, but look at the 2011 draft class. They signed ten guys higher than Josh Bell. Now, they are probably not all better than Bell, but they are not chopped liver either. This group is going to produce results. They seem to always have some talent waiting in the wings, and I am going to put faith in their system and put them up at 5.

6. Rangers - Profar is the big name here, but there are 5 guys in the Top 100. They have shown themselves to be a system that can find and develop talent. The Rangers just missed the Top 5, and are probably interchangeable with the Rays here.

7. Mariners - Two top 20 prospects and 4 top 100. I sort of think Hultzen is underrated as well, so the Mariners are looking good with their talent. High ceilings abound.

8. Pirates - Yes, I think we have the 8th best system. We are short on hitting, but not as short as some of the others, and we have 4 legit possible aces in the system (one of which does not make the top 100). This ranking has 6 Pirates in the Top 100. I down grade us a little because we have some depth issues, and Owens probably took a hit in his status this past year, but overall we have a great system. Allie and Dickerson are not on the top 100 list, but are high ceiling guys. Our Latin America program ought to start really paying off soon as well.

9. Cardinals - As much as it pains me to say it the Cardinals have a good organization. Shelby Miller is good, and they have a total of 5 on this Top 100 list. Probably a bit more balance over all than us, but I don't think they are better than us.

10. Nationals - I was pretty torn here, but I am going Nats. Harper needs no comment and may be the best overall prospect. I think Rendon is low at 26 and Purke is clearly a top 100 guy. They have a few other guys who are not off this list by much.

Now it is hard to make huge argument if you wished to put the Diamondbacks at 10, but I think the fact the Nats have great hitters and a pitcher and the Diamondbacks only have three great pitchers makes the Nats system better. PItching beats hitting, but only once every five games. Thus, the Braves follow behind the Diamondbacks with the same problem. Red Sox are decent, and you could throw in Twins to round out my Top 15.

Trade for McGee and 25 man roster

The Pirates have traded for 3B Casey McGee from the Brewers for Jose Veras. I think that this is a great trade because McGee has power and can hit .280. Last year his thumb injury hurt his stats. It gives us real insurance against another Pedro failure. It gives us an option to platoon Jones at 1B. I like this a lot because I think Veras was over used last year and is due for a flame out this year. If not then it is a pretty fair deal for both teams. We have replacements for Veras since Meek is back, and we need the power hitting. The Brewers just signed Amaris Rameriz, so they don't need McGee.

This means your opening day roster will probably look like this.

OF - Tabata
OF - Presley
OF - McCuthen
3B - Alvarez
SS - Barmes
2B - Walker
1B - Jones (platoon)
C - Barajas
UI - Nunez
UI - Navarro
1B, 3B - McGee
C - McKenry
OF - McClouth

SP - Erik Bedard
SP - Kevin Correia
SP - Jeff Karstens
SP - James McDonald
SP - Brad Lincoln
SP - Charlie Morton (starts out on DL for about a month)
RP - Daniel McCutchen
RP - Tony Watson
RP - Evan Meek
RP - Joel Hanrahan
RP - Jason Grilli
RP - Chris Resop
RP - OPEN SPOT (my guess Moskos)
The last one is an open spot because it is unclear who they are going to put here, and they may even still sign a lefty for the bullpen. Chris Leroux could go here, but they have shown signs of putting him back as a starter, which means he would need to start out in the minors to stretch his arm. Hurdle has spoken of his desire to have 2 lefties in the pen which means that Daniel Moskos should have the inside track, but Justin Wilson is an option as well. Wilson might benefit from coming out of the pen for a while at the AAA level since he was a starter last year until the September call up. Bryan Morris has an outside shot at this spot as well since he was made full time bullpen last year.

That is a pretty good team with a AAA infield of Harrison, D'Arnaud, Mercer, and Hague. I like it. Gorkys is ready in the outfield and hopefully Lambo will have a bounce back year. Jeff Locke, and Rudy Owens are potentials for the rotation before the year is out.

Winter Meetings 2011

The Winter Meetings were great this year for the Pirates. The Pirates were really the only team that got better. Maybe you could say the Cubs got better with the signing of DeJesus to play RF. But that is pretty minor for what happened with the Pirates and what the Cubs needed.

First off the Cards were ruined. Pujols went to the Angels. So, that is a large chunk of offense gone and makes a declining Matt Holiday even more vulnerable. The Brewers were taken to the cleaners by K-Rod who accepted their arbitration offer. This will cripple them financially. They did not resign Prince Fielder, nor did they sign one of their other bullpen guys. The Reds basically stood pat. And the Astros did little because they are still under several bad contracts. They have some trade interest for some pitching, but they have not pulled the trigger yet, which should make them worse for this year, and then they will be gone. The Cubs signed DeJesus, but they also traded Tyler Colvin and LeMahieu for Ian Stewart. Stewart will replace Aramis Ramieriz at 3rd, but this is not a great upgrade. They were active, but did they get much better, probably not.

Second, the Pirates signed Eric Bedard. Bedard is a health risk, but is immediately the best pitcher on the team. He is the first legitimate top of the rotation guy in years for the Pirates. Now, he can get hurt pretty easy, and it would be silly to expect a full year, but if he could only miss a start or two by the trade deadline, he could bring back prospects plural. And if the Pirates are in the thick of things, it would be nice to have him healthy headed into the playoffs. This is clearly the best move of any of the NL Central teams. The Pirates are now ready to make a run at the top spot.

Third, the Pirates did make a Rule 5 selection. Gustavo Nunez is the pick. He is not such a great hitter, but could develop as he is only 23. He can play 2B, 3B, and SS and has played all 3 outfield spots. I don't get it unless the Pirates are hoping to be able to keep him later after dumping him from the roster. This takes Harrison's spot on the 25 man, which I don't see unless they want to get him a few weeks of hitting and starting at AAA while he plays SS and d'Arnaud plays 3B (and Mercer 2B). This would get some consistent practice at the new defensive positions for those guys, but he is not going to make it all year. The Pirates did lose Bret Lorin in the Rule 5, but that was inevitable, and ought to be a sign of a healthy minor league system.

Fourth, the Pirates pulled off a trade that was for today, not for tomorrow. The traded Brooks Pounders (along with Diego Noris who was at his limit of being in the DR) for Yamiaco Navarro. Navarro has a .260 type bat with a strike out problem, but real power potential. He is our back 3B and a power threat off the bench. I am okay with this move only because Navarro is major league ready now. I am higher on Pounders than most. I think he can be a legit 3rd starter because of his ground ball rate and the improvement in his fast ball. But looking at our system, Pounders is not as a good prospect as Cole, Taillon, Cain, Von Rosenburg, McPherson and Kingham and Heredia are younger, but better. Might as well as trade him for a guy who can contribute right now.

You have got to like what the Pirates did, and what the rest of the NL Central did not do. Now some Free Agents are still out there, so it is not over by a long shot, but I am excited already for the Pirates.