2011 Prediction for 40 Man roster

There is a real nice look at next year’s 40-man roster and the problem the Pirates are going to have getting their young talent on the 40-man, and upgrading their team at the former BuccoFans now Pirate Prospects. He will be giving us his ideas soon, but let me go ahead and give mine to see how they line up when his go up.

First, as a Pirate fan, you have to protect your young talent. So I am going to start there. I would add the following to my 40 man roster to ensure they do not get taken in a Rule 5 draft. I add Rudy Owens, Daniel Moskos, Sterling Marte, and Jeff Locke without blinking. They have to be with the organization. That leaves off a few players that are good, but I am not sure they can be protected. I would not have worries about most of them like Jim Negrych, Brian Friday, and even some pitchers like Diego Moreno, Elicer Navarro, and perhaps Nathan Adcock. Those guys just have not pitched against enough high quality to be given a spot on a 25 man roster for the whole year. They need more development. The question marks are Alex Presley, Michael Dubee, and Michael Crotta. It is hard to take a non-pitcher and hide him all year, so I think I would pass on Presley assuming that other teams would as well. Dubee is not an essential part of the future, so I would pass on him as well. I think that it is just not possible to squeeze in Crotta, but I also think some team will take a run at him. So you might lose him. So let us put him on the roster for safety.

So five positions are taken up by guys who need to be protected. That leaves 35 spots. Let us be realistic and just pencil in Andrew McCutchen, Jose Tabata, Garrett Jones, Lastings Milledge, Neil Walker, Ronny Cedano, Pedro Alvarez, and Chris Synder as your starting line up. That gets us to 13. We can fill the rest of that 25 man roster up right now as well. The bench will be Jeff Clement, Eric Kratz, Argentis Diaz, John Bowker, and a fifth spot which will either be Young or LaRoche. I would prefer Young, but I think it will be LaRoche. That is 18 total. The starting rotation will be Paul Malholm, Brad Lincoln, Ross Ohlendorf, with the other spots up for grabs, but let us just give it for now to McDonald and Daniel McCutchen. Then we need a bullpen so we are looking for 7 more guys. No need to start anywhere other than Meek and Hanrahan. I think that the team keeps Jeff Karstens this year. Gallagher was just acquired, so he stays and Jose Ascino will also be in the pen. That is five. I think we will leave the pen like this for now. That gives us 28.

So we need to fill out 12 more people. To get 40, and I think that the Pirates ought to skip out on the Rule 5, so they should go ahead and fill up the roster. You cannot have people on the DL in the Winter Meetings, so expect Steven Pearce and Kevin Hart to be on the list. They will end up on the 60 Day, but will need to be protected. I think we can safely put Brian Morris, Ramon Aguero, and Donald Veal on the 40 man. Wilfredo Ledezma will be on the list. Pedro Ciriaco and Gorkys Hernadez will probably stay on the 40 man as well. Joe Martinez, Charlie Morton, and Jason Jarmillo to make the cut as well. That is 39. This leaves room for a free agent signing, which I think will happen. Probably a veteran bullpen free agent.

So, what does this mean? I think it means that if Doumit cannot be traded, and I think they are trying with this showing Doumit off at other positions, he will not be tendered a contract. I also think that the Pirates end up letting Young walk. I think that the Pirates will DFA Brian Burres, Steven Jackson, Chris Jakabauskas, and Justin Thomas with the hopes of keeping them in the system, and they probably will. I think it also means that they do not try to resign Zack Duke. I think the Pirates tried to move him and could not. He is not worth the five million he is going to get in arbitration.

Now, it is possible that Duke takes that 40th spot. I think that depends on the trades that can be made. The Pirates listened to trades about Charlie Morton. If they could make one it opens an extra spot, which might mean they do tender Duke a contract and try to trade him next season. And remember after the Rule 5 expect Pearce and Hart back on the 60 Day DL, which will allow two more people to join the 40 man roster, probably more free agents from the pen, or if one of those guys above who gets DFA earns it during spring training. The other way to keep Duke is to not protect Crotta, which is a real possibility.

The Starting 25
A. McCutchen - OF
J. Tabata - OF
G. Jones – OF/1B
L. Milledge - OF
J. Bower - OF
J. Clement – 1B
N. Walker – 2B
R. Cedano – SS
P. Alvarez – 3B
C. Synder – C
A. Diaz – SS
A. LaRoche – IF
E. Kratz – C
P. Malholm – P
B. Lincoln – P
R. Ohlendorf – P
J. McDonald – P
D. McCutchen – P
S. Gallagher – P
J. Karstens – P
E. Meek – P
J. Hanrahan – P
J. Ascino – P
W. Ledezma - P
Free Agent – P

The rest of the 40 Man
D. Moskos - P
K. Hart – P
C. Morton - P
J. Martinez – P
D. Veal - P
R. Aguero – P
B. Morris – P
P. Ciriaco – SS
S. Pearce – 1B
G. Hernandez – OF
J. Jarmillo – C
S. Marte – OF
R. Owens – P
J. Locke – P
M. Crotta – P