Pitching Rotation Preview

The Pirate rotation is basically set with open competition for the 5th spot. Paul Malhom, Zack Duke, and Ross Ohlendorf are their top three with Charlie Morton locked into the fourth spot. The fifth spot in the rotation is where the competition is. It is basically down to two guys: Kevin Hart and Daniel McCutchen. Spring Training will be the deciding place for this battle as neither really grabbed a lead in last months of the regular season. Hart was awful with the Pirates and McCutchen was not overly impressive although he did go 6 innings in all but one of his starts and he won his last one. How much that experience aids McCutchen’s confidence and off season development will probably be the deciding factor. Hart is eligible to be sent to the minors, so I expect that McCutchen will win the job and Hart will be in the minors. Hart could get the long reliever spot, but I think if he fails to make the team, they will probably want him to work on whatever his problem is as a starter in the minors. In Hart’s defense, he did make a delivery change when he came to the Pirates. If he worked all the kinks in the motion out over the summer, then he may have better stuff and win that fifth spot.

The interesting thing about the rotation is what it will look like by the end of the season. Brad Lincoln is close to being ready. Most expect he will be in the rotation by the end of the year. If he does well in AAA, like he did last year, then there is no reason to think that they will make Lincoln wait until the September call ups to join the staff. Lincoln could replace anyone that was floundering in the rotation. Or, more interestingly, he could be the reason to move a Zack Duke in a trade. Duke as a lefty would probably bring a good return and it will help the Pirates avoid losing him to free agency. With Lincoln in reserve, a deal of a starting pitcher seems likely if the Pirates are not in the thick of things at the deadline.

My take on this is that it is a pitching rotation with a hole. A hole that I hope Lincoln can fill. That I hole, I believe, is Charlie Morton. I know that Morton is every Sabermatetican’s dream. He has a high strike out and ground ball rate, but in the end, he loses ball games. He does not seem to be able to get the big out in the big inning. And he will throw in a 10 run 2 inning performance every now and then. If Morton is not better this year, then I think one can legitimately question his mental toughness. This is probably what the Braves thought was the problem and why they traded him in the first place. The Pirates are high on him, and his numbers make you think that he has potential. His numbers except the all important numbers of wins and losses. There he makes you think that there is little be excited about.

Also, Paul Malhom has to pitch better if the Pirates hope to be in the pennant race. Ohlendorf looks good, and he could be ace material, but Malhom is the current stopper. He has the stuff to duel with the best in the league. He did not have the monumental collapse that the previous aces have had dating back to Duke in 06, Snell in 07, and Gorzellany in 08. Still a .500 record will not cut it. The Pirates need him to pick up the dominance a bit, and lead this team from the front. Ohlendorf ought to be able to reel in double digit wins, and if he is not being counted on too much, then he has the potential to really have a great year. Duke has shown he can get double digit wins, and with a better offense, his total will increase. The back end is weak and young, but with Lincoln waiting and the loser of the competition for the 5th spot also in the hole, they have plenty of depth to try and find a combo that will not let down the front end of the rotation. The Pirates look better than they have in a while with regards to the pitching rotation, but it is still young. Consistency must be preached and practiced for the Pirates to walk away with hardware at the end of the season.