Next Year's Outlook

I hate to disagree with Jennifer Langosh, but I do think the outlook for next year is not quite as good. Clearly we have more organizational depth, but the best of the depth is still in Single A. We have a lot of hope, but not all that much certainty for our major league team next year. If every plays like you hope, then we will be good. Realistically though it won’t happen. Jennifer also over sells the depth at starting pitching. The bullpen needs real help. Calling Meek, Hanrahan, and Chavez consistent right handers is justified, but saying they will have possibility of being late inning guys is exactly the problem. If Hanrahan lived up to potential we would have our 8th inning guy. Yet all of these guys have failed to be the late inning guy this year (Meek was hurt down the stretch so he has not really failed yet). Capps needs someone in front of him that is solid. This is where the free agent money ought to go.

I will do my own break down of positions, rotation, and bullpen later. But what is clear, even from Jennifer’s comments, is that the Pirates could be a lot better than they will be because they will keep real improvement in the minors. The Pirates could win the NL Central next year and be very competitive if they were to bring up Alvarez and Tabata. That would upgrade the current roster immeasurably. Alvarez would probably hit better than LaRoche who was just under .260 and be a legitimate power threat, which the Pirates need. Tabata would be an upgrade of about 60 points (assuming a rather low .260 average) over Pierce, who would the one actually replaced by Tabata. Jones at first would open the outfield spot for Tabata. That alone is a major upgrade from the Pirates offense. Add Brad Lincoln into the mix instead of Hart or Morton, both of whom were bad, and the Pirates have upgraded the pitching as well. A free agent lefty in the pen and a healthy Ryan Doumit upgrading his average and power would make a fine and competitive team.

Yet the odds are really high that Tabata, Alvarez, and Lincoln will all be in the minors next year and that rather than getting a good bullpen guy the Pirates will spend money on a needless corner outfielder like they did this year with Eric Heinske.

I still think the Pirates can win the division, but they will need some help now. I think over .500 is likely especially since I do think that you will see Alvarez and Tabata before the year is out. I also think Lincoln will be up once they lose their patience with Hart, Morton, or McCutchen.