Target 2012

Even though the Pirates organization will not say it publicly, I think that they are targeting 2012 as their date to return to the playoffs and serious competition. Let us take a look at why.

2012 will have this possible starting line up.
C – Jorge Sanchez
1B – Miles Durham
2B – Jordy Mercer
SS – Chase d’Arnaud
3B – Pedro Alvarez
LF – Jose Tabata
CF – Andrew McCutchen
RF – Robbie Grossman

The starting rotation will look like this.
1 – Brad Lincoln
2 – Ross Ohlendorf
3 – Tim Alderson
4 – Ruby Owens
5 – Aaron Pribonic

Now that Pirate team looks like it could actually be a threat. Alvarez would be a real power threat, something the Pirates have not had in years. McCutchen and Alvarez would be All Star contenders every year. Jose Tabata looks to be an above average ball player himself. D’Arnaud and Mercer would probably be rookies, but may have had experience from the previous year’s September call ups. Tabata and Alvarez would be in their second or third years. Durham would also be a two year vet. Even if Durham turns out to be a mediocre players, he only needs to hit .250 with a hint of power to be an improvement on the current team. The pitching staff is a little harder to project, but Lincoln and Alderson look to be locks at this point, and would be back for at least their second year in 2012. Ohlendorf showed real progress at the major league level this year, and Owens looks real good in the minors. The fifth spot could be a number of other players. Pribonic was picked more or less because he was traded for. But, the Triple A level would probably be full of pitching prospects like Victor Black and Brooks Pounders. Yoslan Herrera could also be a possibility.

The bullpen is impossible to call at this point, and would be the easiest to fill with free agents. Although you will notice that I do not have Daniel Moskos in the starting line up. He would be in the bullpen by 2012, if he is not in the rotation.

Now this line up may not have the pop or pitching depth to win a World Series, but it has enough to contend for a spot in the playoffs. The outfield has the potential to be the best in the majors and Gorky Hernandez would be the bench player from the outfield, or used to trade and fill holes for the playoff run.

It is easy to see the Pirates as the Central Division winners in 2012. The Cubs are locked into a lot of bad deals that will keep sinking them. The Brewers mortgaged their future last year, and by 2012 they may have even failed to resign Prince Fielder. The Cardinals will be holding on with Pujols, but by 2012 he probably will no longer be the dominate force that keeps the Cards afloat. Which leaves the Astros and the Reds. The Reds admittedly, could be competitive by that time. But the Astros appear to be doing strange things that does not give them the hopeful future that the Pirates have. Plus, the Pirates are consistently drafting higher than the Astros, theoretically at least, giving them better talent.

Thus I believe the 2012 is the target date when the good drafting pays off for the current Pirate ownership. From that point on, you should see a very competitive and deep Pittsburgh team.