Off to a Good start and Prospect Updates

The Pirates are off to a good start.  We have to win series against the Cardinals, especially at home.  And it was nice to have it done with Gerrit Cole and Volquez.  We are going to need great pitching from those two to get another trip to the Playoffs.

Our prospects are not doing all that well.  Okay the ones on the field are good, but we have a lot of injuries.  Taillon is out for the year with Tommy John, and now Harold Ramirez and Barrett Barnes are on the DL.   So are several others and a few are just coming off like Phil Irwin.

I never gave a prospect ranking, but it is not too different from Pirates Prospects list with one major exception.  I don't have Alen Hanson in the Top 10.  His defense is not good enough for short, and that lowers his value.  Plus, they are not trying him at other spots yet and that has me worried.  Is he good enough for 2B on defense.  He does not have enough power for 3B.  So, just bump everyone up a notch on that list and slot Hanson at 12.  Although I put Taillon above Polanco.  I probably would have Heredia a little higher too.  I value pitching a lot.  And with that said, I would probably not have Joely Rodriguez in the top 20, and I worry about JaCoby Jones as well.  I have Brandon Crumpton on the list instead of Joely.  And probably Phil Irwin rather than JaCoby.  Also, Wyatt Mathison should be on that list.  Since Stolmey made the team, you can bump everyone up a spot and slot Wyatt at 19 and Irwin at 20.  I am not concerned about Mathison moving to third.  He was an athlete that played middle infield in high school.  He can play the position, and his injury does not worry me too much.  If JaCoby is on the list for athleticism, shouldn't Mathison get some athletic love too?  I like him as a top prospect.

Also my dark horse is John Kuchino from Ohio State.  I like him.  He has done pretty well, and is

A Day Off to talk about Stetson Allie

The Pirates could not get the sweep and in fact got blown out.  But I am not too worried yet because the pitcher was a guy who will be replaced as soon as Karstens or Morton or Lirano get back from the DL.  He is not part of the long term team so his success is not that important.

So we might as well focus on the Farm System, and particularly a surprising story from West Virginia in Stetson Allie.  Allie you will remember was a second round pick who could  hit 100 on the radar gun, but never got the control.  So, last year they converted him back to an infielder.  I believe he played third base last year, and not that well in Rookie Ball.  Well, that was last year.

This year he is in West Virginia and playing first base.  He is currently hitting .333 with 2 HRs and 2 doubles.  He has 4 walks and 10 Ks.  However, almost half those Ks came in the first two games where he struggled a lot.  Allie's OPS is 1.012.  Even better news is he seems to be able to do it against both righties and lefties with a homer off of each.  If you throw out those first two games, his numbers get real scary good.  He is currently riding a 5 game hit streak coming into today's game.

It is real early, and Allie could return to last year's .213 AVG and 3 HRs in 40+ games in rookie ball, but the fact he is playing full season ball and doing well is a great sign.  Remember he came out of high school so he is actually about where he should be if he had gone to college.  He would either be in his senior year of college right now and bound to play in Short Season ball or if he had come out as a junior would probably be starting the season at WV anyway.  I admit to being depressed a little when he flamed out as a pitcher, and I dropped him off my top prospect list, but it was always mentioned how much he loved to hit and how good he was at it in High School.  He can play his way back onto the prospect list if he keeps this up.  It is far too early to give up on him.

Our Minor League System

Yes ladies and gents, it is about time for Spring Training to get under way. Minor League rankings are out, and the Pirates's system rankings 12. To me that is too low. I am biased, but still, I think it is low. There are also lots of prospect rankings out there, but this is my favorite so far. It is the kindest to the Pirates because it ranks Luis Heredia, and ranks him well. He does not make anyone else's list. So based on my limited knowledge I will give my top 10.

1. Padres - They have no super great A+ prospects, but have 10 top 100 prospects, or at least 9. That is really good. No one else comes close to that many. I put them at #1. Of course with all the trading they have been doing the last year they had better be #1.

2. Blue Jays - supposedly they have crazy depth, but they only have 5 Top 100 prospects, and one of those is real near the bottom. Travis D'Arnaud is good and an A type prospect, but I am not sure that they are better than the Padres.

3. Royals - They were #1 last year, but put a lot of guys in the majors that drop them. The addition of Bubba Starling ought to prevent them from dropping too far. Odorizzi is under rated in my opinion, and Mike Motgomery, who had control problems last year, should still be considered a potential star. He still struck out 7.7 per 9 innings, and was a top 20 prospect last year for Baseball America and is not top 100 this year. Even without Motgomery they put 5 in the Top 100.

4. Athletics - Billy Beane packs them in. He puts 7 in my favorite list, although one could make an argument there are only 5 solidly on the list. Still that is a lot and it is enough to crack the top 5.

5. Rays - Matt Moore is great. No doubt. They only put one other guy on this Top 100, but look at the 2011 draft class. They signed ten guys higher than Josh Bell. Now, they are probably not all better than Bell, but they are not chopped liver either. This group is going to produce results. They seem to always have some talent waiting in the wings, and I am going to put faith in their system and put them up at 5.

6. Rangers - Profar is the big name here, but there are 5 guys in the Top 100. They have shown themselves to be a system that can find and develop talent. The Rangers just missed the Top 5, and are probably interchangeable with the Rays here.

7. Mariners - Two top 20 prospects and 4 top 100. I sort of think Hultzen is underrated as well, so the Mariners are looking good with their talent. High ceilings abound.

8. Pirates - Yes, I think we have the 8th best system. We are short on hitting, but not as short as some of the others, and we have 4 legit possible aces in the system (one of which does not make the top 100). This ranking has 6 Pirates in the Top 100. I down grade us a little because we have some depth issues, and Owens probably took a hit in his status this past year, but overall we have a great system. Allie and Dickerson are not on the top 100 list, but are high ceiling guys. Our Latin America program ought to start really paying off soon as well.

9. Cardinals - As much as it pains me to say it the Cardinals have a good organization. Shelby Miller is good, and they have a total of 5 on this Top 100 list. Probably a bit more balance over all than us, but I don't think they are better than us.

10. Nationals - I was pretty torn here, but I am going Nats. Harper needs no comment and may be the best overall prospect. I think Rendon is low at 26 and Purke is clearly a top 100 guy. They have a few other guys who are not off this list by much.

Now it is hard to make huge argument if you wished to put the Diamondbacks at 10, but I think the fact the Nats have great hitters and a pitcher and the Diamondbacks only have three great pitchers makes the Nats system better. PItching beats hitting, but only once every five games. Thus, the Braves follow behind the Diamondbacks with the same problem. Red Sox are decent, and you could throw in Twins to round out my Top 15.

Minor League Review: West Virginia

The Power are the team that actually had me the most depressed as they were stacked coming in. But then you kind of realize they were decimated by promotions and it tempers one's angst.

Pitchers:
Jameson Taillon - He had high expectations, and he did not exceed them. But he probably met them. A 97:22 K:BB rate is amazing and was the second best on the team. His hits allowed were a little high, but the insistence on throwing fast balls is mostly responsible for that. Maybe one would like to have seen a few more innings, but pitch counts kept him removed often. His last start was dominate, and he is ready for the next jump.

Zack Von Rosenburg - Zack had a horrible start to the season getting beat around. His fastball was up. He gave up 19 HRs, but only 23 walks (part of a 114:23 K:BB ratio). He needs to work on getting his pitches down. He showed improvement in the last part of his season, so there is good hope here. One still needs to hope for an increase in velocity as well.

Colton Cain: Cain was great. Everything you wanted him to be. He maxed out some innings and got sent to the pen, which gave him a few bad outings toward the end of the year, but Cain was dominate. 81:33 ratio is good and shows that Cain has the speed and the ability to strike guys out.

Brooks Pounders: He was the big surprise. He added speed on the fastball and looked great. 72:14 ratio is very good. He did it mostly out of the pen, but there is room to squeeze him back into the starting picture next year. It was an exciting year for his development.

Tyler Waldron: He started here and was okay. Nothing great. But he got promoted. He looks more like a bullpen guy, and one who needs more strikeouts.

Brandon Crumpton: He was demoted to the bullpen after a horrible start. He was great there, got back into the rotation, rattled off several amazing wins in a row striking out people, and got promoted. Great year for Crumpton.

Zack Dodson: 46:15 in 66 innings is not bad. He was injured and had a long come back, but was doing well before the injury and did well after. He has pitched his way into nice looking prospect status.

Victor Black: He made it through a season without getting injured and that might have been the most important thing. He needs to work on his control giving up too many walks, but he did get a late season promotion to Bradenton. Probably a bullpen guy with nice heat. One thing worth mentioning is he did not give up a homer at West Virginia. Only one at Bradenton. Keeping the ball in the park is good.

Hitters:
Matt Curry - He will be discussed elsewhere. Needless to say, he was great in WV with an OPS north of 1.

Dan Grovatt - He had a very consistent year. He was constantly between .280 and .300. He drew lots of walks, hit for some surprising power with 8 HRs and a good double total. Plus he has the arm to stick in a corner outfield spot.

Drew Maggi - He was freezer cold for the first month or so of the season, which tells you how good he was to the end as he earned the promotion for the last few games. His defense is supposedly good enough to stick at short, but was still a bit error prone. Some of that I think was his bad plate performance affecting his defense. Did show some double/triple potential as well. Good speed.

Justin Howard - The concern was his power, which he showed hints of during this season with doubles and the long ball, but now his average needs to improve. Still, this year has to be a success for Howard.

Kwami Elmsely-Pai - This guy was blazing at the beginning of the year despite not getting a lot of playing time. He did cool down, but was still good enough to go up a level next year. His defense also seemed strong. Considering we picked him up for nothing, it was a great season.

Mel Rojas Jr. - Obviously a bit disappointing, but he too started very cold. He needs to work on plate discipline as his strike out total was too high. However, he has speed. And one can expect his plate discipline to improve as he is still pretty young. Not a great season, but not a failure either.

There were some real disappointments such as Eric Avilia. Wow. The kid had shown power and decent hitting, but was just awful. Did end strong enough to almost get to .215, but not quite. He also had over 20 errors. That is just plain bad. But the real prospects at this level did okay to good with a few greats scattered in there.

Minor League Review: State College

Ross Ohlendorf just pitched his first homer, and got a win. Good news for the Pirates. I still think you let him go during the off season, but hey, it is still nice.

State College was not very good this year, and a lot of that was the result of getting only 4 seniors in the draft. But, I am still higher on what was at State College than most. Let's take a look.

Pitchers:
It is true that there were not a lot of break out seasons here except Nick Kingham, but they were not disastrous either.

Nick Kingham:
He had a 1.10 WHIP and a 47:15 K:BB ratio. He threw in the low 90's and looked great after a shaky first start. He could very well be a top 10 prospect.

Stetson Allie:
Disappointing in some ways because of his hype, but we all knew he had command problems. He walked 29 and struck out 28. The command problems were there. Still, the dominance was also there. His fastball sits at 95, and when he is on, he is going to blow away the competition. He has plenty of time to get control of his walk total. So, I think he had a better season than most do. The walks were to be expected. He also seemed to be improving a bit until they moved him to the pen so as not to overload his innings. The adjustment to coming in from the pen was rough. July was 15 strikeouts to 10 walks with 5 starts. No starts in August resulted in 12 walks and only 6 strikeouts. That hurt his numbers a bit, so it is not as bad as it might look.

Ryan Hafner:
I am a little higher on Hafner than others as well. His fastball is still high 80's, and that will never get it done even out of the pen. Still he pulled off a 1.19 WHIP and a 31:20 K:BB. That is too many walks, but an impressive number of strikeouts considering he was not overpowering anyone. Remember he came from high school, so I think power can come with age. It might have been that some of his walks were nibbling at corners. I still think he adds power, and then he can be real good.

As for what we got in the draft, I do like Josh Poythress as a future reliever. A 29:10 K:BB is not a bad start. I am not ready to give up on Matt Benedict either. A 39:15 K:BB is enough to keep me watching and hoping, but he gave up far too many hits.

Hitters:
Alex Dickerson:
He came late to the league, but was as advertised. .313 AVG, .886 OPS with 3 HRs. He has to learn 1B, so his defense is below average, but his bat looks great.

Samuel Gonzalez:
He thrived at this level. He hit over .300 and only struck out 15 times, which is a big thing. Add in 14 walks, and I like his plate presence. Needs more power, and needs to play better defense, but it was a good year for him.

Wes Freeman:
Now I am not as high on Freeman as others. He was repeating this league, so he should have dominated it. Still, he hit 6 homers and hit .303. His defense is good enough for the corner outfield. You have to call this a success.

Now I would not worry about a lot of the others that some are pointing to as disappointing. Dan Gamache hit .231, but he was recovering from a hand injury and only had 20 games to get adjusted. I am also not too worried about Taylor Lewis nor Derek Trent. Trent is not a big time prospect anyway, but it was a major jump in competition for those guys and they had to learn the wooden bat at the same time. They played in lower college conferences as opposed to Dickerson and Gamache. Both showed good plate discipline with Lewis leading the team in walks with 34 and Trent was 4th with 20. Both played good Defense. Lewis also had 7 triples. No kidding. Lewis had 35 hits and 7 of them were triples. 20% of his hits were three baggers. He added on double, and he stole 16 bases (being caught 4 times). His speed should keep him on the prospect radar. Kirk Singer was another draftee who got better as the year went on, so he should not be thrown under the bus.

There were a few huge disappointments. Exicardio Caynoes was awful and thought to be a nice prospect. Junior Sosa should have done better as well. And the Pirates has seen enough of Justin Benscko, as they have him listed as released now. So the team had some disappointments.

My thoughts overall is that this team was weak from the beginning, did not have real good performances from the early signers in the draft, which matched up with disastrous performances from Caynoes and Sosa. They got better, but it was too late to make the team look good. But they showed enough to not be depressed.

Rudy Owens - close to ready?

The Pirates did some interesting things the other day. Joe Biemel is back and Moskos was sent down. Pearce hit a homer at AAA, but overall the most interesting things for me was Rudy Owens.

Owens has had a tough year with higher walks and lower strikeouts. This has lead to a lot of hits, and a lot of runs. He still gets ground balls, but is just getting hit a lot. However, a corner may have been turned. His last outing saw him get 8 strikeouts, his best result of the year. So, I was anxiously waiting this game. He did not disappoint. He struck out 7, and walked only 1. He also only gave up 5 hits, a lower number than last game.

The month of June has already seen Rudy's highest strike out total of any month. He probably has at least one more start left too. It would be nice to see Rudy put in a few good starts so that perhaps he could get the call up in September. We need Rudy to break camp with us next year as one way or another we will probably be without Maholm.

What is left for a good draft?

First, let me note the International Signings. The Pirates did sign a big name for over a million bucks in Harold Rameriz, a 16 year old outfielder. They also handed out some big bonuses to Caesar Lopez and Elvis Escobar, a Right handed pitcher and outfielder respectively. Other than that it is pretty quite. Juan Mendoza is a hard thrower but 25. I don't think I have seen him on any team yet. Danny Arribas is playing in the Dominican, but he is having a bad year so far. He plays both catcher and third. The other one that interests me is Carlos Mesa, a 20 year old from Cuba. I hope to see him in GCL next year.

The Pirates have now signed 17 guys. They just inked Alex Dickerson the third round pick, who can hopefully add some hitting to State College. They also have fourth round pick Corey Brewer lined up to go to GCL Pirates. Jason Creasy was signed the other day as well, 8th round high school pitcher. Dan Gamache is hurt, but signed and 10th round pick Taylor Lewis is already playing at State College and is struggling, but has a surprising triple total. The other signees are all expected signs who are long shots at the majors with the exception of Josh Poytress, a hard throwing 18th round pick from Fresno State. He could have bullpen potential. And I can always hold out hope for Derek Trent at catcher.

So what would it take to make this draft a real success? We can expect the Pirates will get a deal done with Cole, so let us go ahead and call it 18 people signed. Let us paint two scenarios. One with Josh Bell, and one without.

With Bell I think the Pirates have a good draft, but probably ought to sign one or two more people. 21 is a good number if Bell is one of them. I heard that 5th round pick Tyler Glasnow would be an easy sign. He needs to sign. That way the PIrates have signed all of the first 6 rounds, and then they could add one more prep guy, and it really would not matter who. In my opinion if they can do that, then the Pirates are in great shape with this draft.

Without Bell is a bit more interesting. It does not immediately mean they had a bad draft. They still need to sign Glasnow, but two other names pop up as important. Clay Holmes and Kody Watts. The Pirates would have to sign one of these two guys to make up for the loss of Bell. Both are top 150 prospects. Signing them both would make a good draft for sure. I would like to see the number signed go up as well. 24 would be one to shoot for. Candon Myles is someone I would like to see the Pirates sign if they lose Bell. He has a ton of speed and potential. Frankly, I hope the Pirates get him no matter what, but losing the bat of Bell would make Myles more important. One of the Aaron Brown and Jordan Dunatov group would be important as well. And of course the Pirates could make a run at one of their top 10 pick Jake Burnette. That leaves one more that could be anyone.

So, in my opinion the Pirates are close to having a really good draft. I think they will get both Cole and Bell. MLB has announced high school signings. This means now we can expect to see some of the signings to start flowing in. Keep an eye on those important names, action on the draft front will now start to get fast and furious.

Prospect Update

It is midseason, time to see how my Top 50 Prospects are doing.

I'll just put the updates in bold, so we can see my thoughts from last year.

1. Jameson Tallion. Taillon has plus pitches already. Not potential, but already. High 90’s, great curve. Slider. Knows a change up, but that is probably the pitch that will get the most work. Staff Ace, almost sure fire all star. Just needs to avoid arm problems. West Virginia will be worth seeing play baseball next year. Maybe a hotter ticket than the Pirates.
Nothing but good news here. He is having a good showing in his first full season. Some tiredness, but that is to be expected.
2. Rudy Owens – why Rudy Owens so high? Well,7.5 K/9 and more importantly 1.4 BB/9. That is the best of all pitching prospects in the system. Also 47% ground ball rate is good. And he did it all at AA. No lower competition in these numbers.
Oh my. What has happened. Owens has been lit up. Walks surprisingly up, strike outs down. He did strike out 8 in his last outing, so maybe that is a good sign, but he will be dropping.
3. Stetson Allie. The only question with this guy is if he can be a starter. I see no reason why not. He can reach 100 mph, and I think his control on those pitches will come. His other stuff is already good, and that makes him a potential staff ace.
His control is not good, but that is improvable. That is why he started a level below Taillon. Still he has the ability to strike out the side. Looks good.
4. Sterling Marte. Marte was poised for a promotion before the injury to his hand. He suffered a rehab set back to lose more time, but still came back with the same level of good hitting (.333 AVG and .877 OPS), and good fielding. I think Marte has answered any questions about being able to compete at the higher levels. Still could develop some power, and thus looks to be a future starting outfielder for the Pirates. Can play any position in the outfield.
Has not missed a beat. Probably will be getting a call up to AAA soon.
5. Tony Sanchez. A real shame that he got hit in the face and missed so much time. He gets beaned a lot. His defense is good. His bat continues to be better than had hoped for (.314 AVG and .870 OPS). He hits more line drives than I thought. About a 25% clip. I am starting to be a believer in Sanchez. However, he is not a world changing prospect. I think he is over rated by those who put him in the top two or three.
Started off well in AA, but has regressed. No power right now, but he was not really a power hitter when we drafted him. Some questions about his defense have arisen and that is bad. Disappointing year so far, but on the good side, no ill affects from his injuries.
6. Jeff Locke. 8.5 K/9 and a 1.5 BB/9 along with 43% ground ball rate is great. Throw in the promotion in the middle of the year to AA without missing a beat, and I am a believer. I think Locke is a key move by Hunington in the unofficial project 2012. By 2012 the Pirates will have a new pitching staff, and Locke will be a part of it.
Just an awful year for Jeff. He has not taken a step forward and is not looking to get a promotion soon. He has been very hittable.
7. Chase D’Arnaud. A rough year for his average, but he got better as the year went on. Part of the reason he has dropped a little. Still, he hits lots of doubles (32), which is a good thing. Power potential. Probably will have to play second at the big leagues. He is only 23.
He has played okay in the majors. Was hitting very well in AAA. He was asked to play 3B in the majors and did so-so. His time at short has shown that he is probably not a major league short stop. Still, his speed is scary and his hitting looks like it will be decent in the majors.
8. Colton Cain – why Cain this high? He is 19 and has an 8.35 k/9 and a 1.06 WHIP. That is really good. Sure he walked three guys for every 9 innings, but that is something that should improve with age. I am ready for him to get a shot at a full season. Seems early injury troubles did not slow him down.
Expect Colton to move up the list. He has been great. He has admitted to some tiredness, but so far he is a top prospect and projects well.
9. Zack Von Rosenburg. He does not have the K’s Cain has, but much better control. Only a 1.94 BB/9 and a 44% ground ball rate to boot. He might start next year at A+, especially since one has to think Allie and Taillon are going to start at West Virginia (A). If he stays at WV can you imagine the starting rotation (Taillon, Allie, ZVR, and Cain). Wow.
He has gotten hammered and is giving up as many homers as walks. So he is clearly leaving the ball up. However, the walks are low and he is still getting decent strike out numbers. The leaving the ball up is fixable.
10. Andrew Lambo. What a steal the Pirates got here. An outfielder who is still very young and hitting great. Signs of power at the AA level. Might even be higher, but a history of substance abuse has me worried. The next suspension would break his career. Hope the Pirates can find a place for this guy in their line up.
He had to be demoted after not being able to handle AAA pitching. Bad sign, bad news.
11. Jordy Mercer. I am not sure why everyone over looks Jordy. Better defense than Chase, and higher average this year as well (.279). High double count, and history of good RBI production. About a 20% line drive rate. Add to that the fact that he can play 3B, 2B, and SS, and you have a highly valued prospect.
Mercer has lowered his strike out rate, re-discovered power, and still is a good defender. He had a little bit of a slow start to AAA, but is showing power there too.
12. Luis Heredia. The hype is there, but I cannot put him above some of the guys that are producing at AA level. I hope he lives up to it, but before this 16 year old throws a professional pitch, I cannot put him in the top 10. But over 90 MPH as a 16 year old is great news for the Pirates. Expect to see him GCL next year.
Okay, he can pitch. He will be in the top 10 now that he has thrown his first professional pitches. The kid has velocity and is doing better than you would think at the GCL as a 16 year old.
13. Bryan Morris. Okay Morris had a good year, but I am not sold. He has more bad ones than good ones and he should have dominated A+ at his age considering it was not his first time in it. Most people have him in the top 10. I hope that his new mechanics have made him that much better, but he has a history of attitude problems as well. He needs more than one good year to jump up to the top 10. If he does it next year at AAA, then the Pirates have just won the Jason Bay trade.
Morris did not keep up his resurgence. He is now a bullpen guy, but doing okay from the pen. He could be a part of the pen next year, maybe even in September call ups if they elevate him to AAA soon.
14. Nick Kingham. Okay, here is where I put him. Projects as at least a 3rd starter. Maybe higher. His first taste of pitching at Rookie league looked good. Strikeouts, no runs, multiple innings. He should be in the top 15 of the Pirates Prospects.
A little inconsistent, but you can see the promise. He had one dominating start and a few other okay and one rocky. Still, Kingham looks good.
15. Brock Holt. Holt was on fire before his injury. Plus, this was all done at the A+ level. I did not expect him to jump to that level this year, but he showed he was up for he challenge. .354 AVG and .848 OPS in just about 200 ABs. I like Holt. Hope he comes back from the knee okay.
The knee is okay. AA has not slowed Holt down. He is hitting at a near .300 clip. He too might see AAA by the end of the year.
16. Daniel Moskos. I know that this might be high for him, but I think his stats were pretty good. He killed at AA, but struggled a little in AAA. Still 8.8 K/9 is good, and real good for a closer. Sure his walks were too high, but part of that was his struggle at AAA. He has the stuff to be a closer. Remember that this is his first year in the pen in the minors. Not a bad first year.
Moskos has made the majors, but will probably return to AAA when Biemel is healthy. He was great in AAA and not bad in the big leagues. He will start off on the roster next year and will be called back up in September for sure.
17. Mel Rojas Jr. Next year will be the year to see how good this kid can be. He has swoons right now, but it is the longest year of his career when you add in the full college season, so some of that should be expected. I want to see this guy over a full professional season. He has all the tools. Only 19.
Rojas started very slowly and still has swoons. But some power potential and great speed.
18. Victor Black – this guy is still good. He had 4.2 innings this year, but still struck out 8 guys. He was hurt in training camp, got hurt again quick. Some of his bad stats are surely related to that injury. He misses an important year, but don’t forget this guy. At worst a very hard throwing closer.
Black is pitching out of the pen to help protect his arm. Probably will be a pen guy in the future. He is doing excellent out of the pen. I hope to see him promoted to High A soon. His age demands it.
19. Nathan Adcock. 7 K/9 and 49% ground ball rate. Looks good to me. He did this at A+, which makes me ranking him higher than some similar pitchers in the system like Miller, Lorin, and Irwin. Can he do it again next year at a higher level? I sure hope so.
Doing well . . . FOR THE ROYALS!!!
20. Josh Harrison – again he had a real disappointing year last year. I want to see him do it again before I really get excited about him. He was weak after the trade last year, but this year is a different story. I expect him in AAA next year. If he could play short stop rather than just 3B and 2B, it would raise his value.
The man is tearing up the majors with a .280 AVG. However, his defense is not starting material and he cannot take a walk to save his life. Good utility back up for years to come.
21. John Bowker. Some power at the AAA level. I like him. But not a lot because he has not been able to show the same stuff at the majors. I think it says good things about the Pirate farm system that he is outside of the top 20. He is out of options, so he has to be a back up at the majors this year. I think his power would follow him to the majors if he got the time, but there in lies the real problem.
He has potential, but has never really been given a long period of time to show it. He hits better than Overbay and can play 1B, but he will not get a shot. Doing well in AAA, but his time with the club is gone. Prospect status ought to be gone too. He has had lots of ABs in the majors now. Was DFAed and no one claimed him. That says it all.
22. Michael Dubee – good year and at AAA. It will be interesting to see if he makes the 40 man roster. He was formerly a highly regarded guy. He may have earned that back this year.
Bullpen arm is all he can ever be. Not keeping pace with last year.
23. Quintin Miller. Some injuries slowed him this year. 5.5 K/9 is low, but he gives up a very small number of homers, and a 50% ground ball rate makes me think he has the potential to be a reliable back end starter.
Miller needed to gain ground this year and more treaded water. Could be a prospect we throw in a trade package.
24. Eric Avila. I like this kid. .277 Avg is good, but look at his power potential. He had 7 HRs and 14 doubles in rookie ball. Had good power numbers last year in Dominican too. Still young so this ought to increase.
He has completely folded. He will drop off the prospect list for sure.
25. Brett Lorin. An injury plagued year makes it hard to place him. Nothing above A ball, so that hurts his ranking too. 8 K/9 is solid. He could be good.
I would have liked to see more progress, but this last half season will be important for him.
26. Tyler Waldron. Not sure if he is going to be able to stay a starter, but has convinced me to give him a shot. So his low end is hard throwing bullpen guy. I’ll take it.
Waldron has had mixed results. He has had an injury, but seems to be back and okay. Nothing to worry you here yet, but nothing to make you think he is not a bullpen prospect either.
27. Justin Wilson. Almost 8 K/9, but also near 4 BB/9. 50% ground ball rate makes up for it a little. 22 and in AA. He has to control his walks. But if he can get that under control, he can pitch at the big league level.
He has made the leap to AAA and is doing better there than Owens. Who would have thought?
28. Robbie Grossman – yes this is a big fall in my rankings for Robbie. He did move up in competition, but he continues to swoon in the middle of the season. He was awful in May and June, but has hit .275 in July and August. His inability to hit on the road is a problem. Lots of walks, but tons of strikeouts. That did decrease some this year. Still young, but he is getting passed by with the other great prospects coming into the Pirate system.
Grossmann is lowering his strikeout total. Gaining credibility as a leadoff hitter, but will probably never be a centerfield and has no real power. An Alex Presley type maybe.
29. Matt Curry. He hit well in State College. He could use more power since he is playing first base, but right now is the best first base prospect in the system.
The best season for a prospect so far. He dominated A ball and jumped all the way to AA. He has not dominated there, but is coming out of a little mini-slump. Power is still there, so he looks good.
30. Jared Lakind. I know, I know. This one is mostly hype. But he has potential on the mound or at the plate. That makes him worthy of this list.
Maybe the worst start ever for a prospect in Rookie League, but he has since hit multiple homers and is raising his average. I think he will be fine by year's end.
31. Brooks Pounders – this guy has a 6.34 K/9 and a 2.5 BB/9 at the age of 19. Still he gives up one homer per 9 innings. That lowers him.
A pretty good year mostly from the pen for Pounders. One wonders if the transition is permanent. He is raising his stock.
32. Nathan Baker. A decent strike out rate at 6.4 K/9. A 2.2 BB/9 is okay, but it was in A and A+ competition, so he is not going to be as high as say Justin Wilson who is the same age. 44% ground ball rate is not bad.
He is doing okay. Could be another prospect traded at the deadline.
33. Trent Stevenson. I have to say I am little disappointed in Stevenson. He was drafted last year with the rest of the young guns, but Stevenson is older than they are. I was hoping he would show that age at these low levels with strong performances. So might be graded low because of my disappointment.
Still disappointing me.
34. Philip Irwin. Age keeps him down. 23 ought to be good in A ball. Still a 8.3 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9 is nice. 48% groundball looks real good. He should move up in the system. Next year in High A ought to be very telling. UPDATE: Promoted to a A+ at the end of the season. Too late to factor into ranking.
Irwin dominated A+ this year, but should have as a 24 year old. He is getting his feet wet in AA which is big. Age wise he ought to be there or above. How he does the rest of the year is vital for his future.
35. Zack Dodson. 6.5 K/9 is not so bad for this 20 year old in A-. I had higher hopes. His walks are also too high. But he does not give up the long ball and is a 92-93 MPH guy. I still think he has potential to be a back end starter.
Just coming back from an injury. He will probably be moving up this list.
36. Drew Maggi. This might be a little low for Drew. He has not had a lot of big league at bats. His defense ought to be up to snuff, but I am more worried than the Pirates about his offense. Still, if he finds a decent bat, this guy could be a starting short stop for the Pirates. His ranking should show I am skeptical of starting abilities for him.
Another amazingly poor start. But he has been on fire lately. The kid can play Defense and hit A ball pitching. I am ready to see him rise a level.
37. Alex Presley. This guy had a great year. But he will be left off the 40 man roster again and it is hard to argue against it. Log jam at his position, and without real power (12 HRs), he does not have a great case despite the excellent year.
Okay, I underrated him. I thought he was a one year wonder. I was wrong. He will be off the list because I do not think goes back to AAA. Wow.
38. Evan Chambers. A bit of a disappointing year for Evan. Good power projection with 20 doubles and 13 HRs, but a .240 AVG is a killer especially with the high outfield talent in the Pirate system. It is not too late for him to come on and rise in these rankings.
He has had a melt down at A+. Not good.
39. Justin Howard. No power numbers hurt this kid. First base is a power position. Still cannot ignore his .341 AVG. It will be easier to place Howard after he sees some tough competition. Rookie league was clearly to low for him, but other guys stand above him. Maybe next year at WV would make the difference.
Can hit, but lacks power. A powerless first baseman is not going to rise too high in this ranking.
40. Jarek Cunningham. I am not as high on this guy as some. Great power numbers with 32 doubles and 12 HRs, but his average is far too low. Only musters a .763 OPS. Not sure he can stay as a shortstop defensively either.
Starting to come around a little, but still needs to finish well to keep prospect status going forward.
41. Donald Veal. Yes, I dropped him because of his injury mostly. Plus 4 BB/9 is way to high for a guy in AAA with a taste of the majors previously. A bad sign for his future in my opinion.
Is recovering from surgery and still in his rehab stint. He might could help the Pirates pen, but I don't think he has long term value anymore.
42. Michael Crotta. A great year for Michael. I don’t think his stats support him being a starter. Not enough velocity. But, this guy might be a plug in the bullpen. A long relief guy capable of making an emergency spot start.
He was a plug in the pen. I expect he will be called back up in September.
43. Tony Watson. He missed some time last year because of an injury. This is a good comback year. His age is going to hurt him. I still could see him making the bullpen one day. 8.6 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9. That could do the trick in the pen.
I wish he were better at the major league level against lefties, but he is still decent. He won't return to AAA.
44. Diego Moreno. A strike out machine. 15 k/9 with only 1.5 BB/9 and a .70 WHIP. Look out bullpen this guy is a shoe in. Why not higher? Well, AA proved a bit much for him. I need to see success at that level for this 24 year old guy.
Time will tell on him. Time will tell. I have a bad feeling he will not make it to the pros.
45. Adalbeto Santos. Nice year, but where is he going to play defensively? He is small and already displaced in the infield and taking some outfield starts. If his bat stays good, he could be a good prospect, but he has yet to face pitching that includes a lot more than fastball location.
Just does not have a position. He still hits okay, but is not going to find a spot to play. Probably will fall off of this list.
46. Tim Alderson. He is 21 so I won’t throw him under the bus yet. But this kid’s psyche looks ruined. Biggest disappointment in the minor league system.
He is thriving in the pen. He has his curve back and gets results, but is in AA still. He is only 22 so it might be early to erase him from the list, but he is nothing to be excited for. Clearly not worth Freddy Sanchez.
47. Calvin Anderson. I thought he would be higher, but he collapsed in July. Never recovered.
Collapse continues. Won't make the next list.
48. Matt Hague. Not enough power for first base. 25 and at AA. Still hit enough to make this list.
Hague is still hitting. If he had some power he would be in the majors. Still might make the team as a lot of people are clamoring for it. Probably moves up the list.
49. Junior Sosa. A 20 year old who hit above .300 most of the year (.296 on August 28). Not showing power potential, but was 20 out of 26 in stolen base attempts. Some one to keep your eye on as he progresses through the system. Should gain a better eye with more experience.
Did not make the State College club. Not good.
50. Zachary Foster. I still like this kid. He is 23 in A ball, but he struck out 41 in 57 innings. Still 20 walks is a bit bad. And you cannot rank bullpen guys all that high. 5 saves and 2 holds. Finished 20 games.
His age makes him no longer a prospect. With new draft picks clearly he will fall off this board.

Here are the other people I listed.
Some people who are not on this list, but still could find their way on are Aaron Pribonic (strike out rate way too low), Brandon Crompton (This kid came in a pitched really well in his limited pro time but want to see more of him before I get too excited), Quincy Latimore (nice power, but his average is uninspiring), Gorkys Hernandez (this kid is running out of time), Kyle McPherson (great year, but is it for real?), Erik Fryer (good stats at catcher but 25 and in A+ lowers that some), Exicardo Cayonez (high potential, needs plate discipline), Jared Hughes (walk rate is too high. Strike out rate is okay at 6 K/9, but homer rate is a bit elevated. For a guy with 55% ground ball rate it is worrisome so many left the yard), Vincent Payne (drafted this year and had decent beginning), Jeremy Farrel (.868 OPS), Aaron Baker (18 HRs), and Kevin Decker (okay probably not, but he is a Southern Conference man, and I will give him homer attention!).
McPherson is on the 40 man and I didn't have him in the top 50. I still don't understand that move, but he is living up to it so far. Promoted to AA and doing okay. Baker is hitting for power still, but was skipped by Curry. Crompton will make the next list as he has been lights out after a slow start. Cayonez is justifying my leaving him off the 50 Prospects list. Demoted back to State College.

They will be okay

The Pirates just stopped a tail spin and are no longer above .500. I have not been able to keep up because of vacation, visits, and the College World Series. Yes, I got to go to a couple of games. Good stuff, but no Pirate Prospects there to watch.

Since my absence Luis Heredia and Stetson Allie both made their pro debuts. Both went only 2.1 innings and both got beat around a bit. However, there is no need to panic. Both actually had some encouraging signs.

Allie was first, and he did strike a few guys out. His first two innings were really okay. He even had a 1-2-3 inning in the second. It was the third that was the problem. He was unable to work around the trouble he was in, got a little wild and got the hook. Still not too bad for a guy who should be a freshman in college against college seniors. Even Taillon was shaky in first game.

Luis Heredia who is still 16 was next. He did not strike anyone out, which was disappointing. But, he too did not give up any runs until the third inning. However, in his 7 outs, 6 were ground ball outs. That is a good sign. He is going to get a lot of chances against these much older guys. Expect good things from Luis.

The one to worry about is Nick Kingham. He was not encouraging at all in his big State College opener. Again, one game is nothing, but I was hoping for more. A low 90's lefty with the possibility of gaining some velocity is always exciting. It just did not materialize in his first outing.

On a more positive note, the PIrates are signing a lot of people. They even inked a High School pitcher already. 4th round pick Colton Brewer has signed, and hopefully will start appearing in some GCL games this year. 3 of the top 10 picks are already on board. All 4 of the seniors are on board and a couple of others. I am impressed at the speed the Pirates are attacking this draft. Of course the big fish will not land until the 15th of August, but still it is a good sign to see them get some high picks in already.

Spikes

Okay, the MLB site was completely wrong. How can they be that wrong. I don't know, but I won't make that mistake again.

The current Spikes roster is up. Expect a few more as I think two seniors have yet to sign. Taylor Lewis has since signed and will be here. Dan Gamanche has singed, but is not listed here. I expect he will go straight to West Virginia because Eric Avilia is horrible there. A spot is clearly open for him in WV.

The people to watch are of course Allie, but also Kingham, and Hafner in the rotation. I will also be watching Matthew Benedict, 30th round this year, because he is from the Southern Conference.

At the plate, we need to watch first and foremost Exicardo Cayones. Taylor Lewis ought to also be interesting to see. Michaelangel Trinidad is also one to keep an eye upon, and Brian Sharp is a 24th round guy. I will be watching Derek Trent because I grew up watching ETSU baseball. They used to be SoCon. I will watch him out of loyalty.

Som real good guys on this list. I like it. Looking forward to seeing the Spikes start up.

Pirates dominate, but have to edge out a 12th inning win

The Pirates beat around the D-Backs, but ended up in extra innings clawing for their life. They did get the win thanks to the big guns stepping up as they should. But, they get to .500.

The great news is that the big three bats all played big. McCutchen had multiple hits including the walk-off homer, plus a sac fly for the first RBI of the game. He scored the second run and the third as well. Tabata had a four hit night, scored the first run of the game. Walker had the worst night of the three, but got the clutch base hit in the bottom of the 10th when the Pirates were down 2-1, and things looked bad. So he pulled out an important RBI.

Maholm was also solid. I say solid and not great because he walked 3 guys, but only gave up one hit. Pitch count seemed a little high after 6 when he left with a 1-0 lead. Resop did a good inning. Veras gave up the tying run, but Tony Watson bailed Veras out of the 8th inning. Watson looked good inherited 2 runners and they did not move as he struck out both batters. Moskos was not so good tonight. His slider seemed off. He gave up the run in the 10th after Hanrahan worked a clean 9th. Moskos did get of the inning with only one run, which looked real bad for a minute. Daniel McCutchen pitched the 11th and the 12th and looked bad doing it. He was in trouble both innings. He had to get out of a 1st and 3rd one out jam, and did it. He had people on base the next inning as well. I think Clint was going to stick with him because the bullpen was getting thin.

Bad things did happen. The Pirates racked up 15 hits in 12 innings and only walked away with 3 runs. That is not good. Lots of guys left on base. Chris Snyder got hurt, or at least left the game. That means Dusty Brown is the starter and Matt Diaz the back up catcher. If it is serious then Eric Fryer is probably going to make the majors.

On a side note, the Pirates promoted Kyle McPhearson to AA. Matt Curry was promoted a few weeks ago. This is the beginning of moving up some guys that need to move up. Starling Marte maybe first on that list. Also Sanchez might need to be promoted to AAA soon. Will Taillon get moved up to High A to take McPhearson's starting spot? Someone from West Virginia ought to go up, it is too crowded down there. Crumpton? Waldron? Both would be good candidates. And don't look now, but Robbie Grossman is not fading in June. He is up to .276 and most impressively he went 1 for 2 today with 3 walks. 3 WALKS. If you are familiar with Grossman it is unheard of for him to walk 3 times in one game. No strikeouts is an accomplishment for him, but 3 walks? Wow.

As for day 3 of the draft, it is mostly people who will not sign or are organizational depth. Just so you know who you will see in State College soon, here are the seniors drafted.
31. Derek Trent - C - lefty that can play outfield as well. Only real person to watch taken today.
33. Christ Lashmet - 3B - from Northwestern

Those are the guys that are shoe-ins because they are seniors. There are several prep players, I can't imagine many of them signing. There are one or two other guys that were from a junior college or long shot signs from college. You will see a few of them like maybe Jonathan Schwind the 41st round pick. He is a junior from Marist, and he might go to the Pirates. We will see.

Prospect Rankings

Since the minor league season is over, I thought I would post my Top 50 Pirate Prospects. It is hard to get a clear picture on a lot of the guys picked this year. And I put a slightly higher premium on producing at higher levels than some rankers do. Also, for me to get this list out, I had been working on it for a while so the stats are from about the end of August, not the end of the season. It should be noted as well that some of these are close enough to be interchangable. I also think that at about prospect 37 one can see that the rankings are more hope than projection. A lot of those lower guys may never come close to the majors. Some though are hopeful risers through the rankings.

Prospect Rankings:
1. Jameson Tallion. Taillon has plus pitches already. Not potential, but already. High 90’s, great curve. Slider. Knows a change up, but that is probably the pitch that will get the most work. Staff Ace, almost sure fire all star. Just needs to avoid arm problems. West Virginia will be worth seeing play baseball next year. Maybe a hotter ticket than the Pirates.
2. Rudy Owens – why Rudy Owens so high? Well,7.5 K/9 and more importantly 1.4 BB/9. That is the best of all pitching prospects in the system. Also 47% ground ball rate is good. And he did it all at AA. No lower competition in these numbers.
3. Stetson Allie. The only question with this guy is if he can be a starter. I see no reason why not. He can reach 100 mph, and I think his control on those pitches will come. His other stuff is already good, and that makes him a potential staff ace.
4. Sterling Marte. Marte was poised for a promotion before the injury to his hand. He suffered a rehab set back to lose more time, but still came back with the same level of good hitting (.333 AVG and .877 OPS), and good fielding. I think Marte has answered any questions about being able to compete at the higher levels. Still could develop some power, and thus looks to be a future starting outfielder for the Pirates. Can play any position in the outfield.
5. Tony Sanchez. A real shame that he got hit in the face and missed so much time. He gets beaned a lot. His defense is good. His bat continues to be better than had hoped for (.314 AVG and .870 OPS). He hits more line drives than I thought. About a 25% clip. I am starting to be a believer in Sanchez. However, he is not a world changing prospect. I think he is over rated by those who put him in the top two or three.
6. Jeff Locke. 8.5 K/9 and a 1.5 BB/9 along with 43% ground ball rate is great. Throw in the promotion in the middle of the year to AA without missing a beat, and I am a believer. I think Locke is a key move by Hunington in the unofficial project 2012. By 2012 the Pirates will have a new pitching staff, and Locke will be a part of it.
7. Chase D’Arnaud. A rough year for his average, but he got better as the year went on. Part of the reason he has dropped a little. Still, he hits lots of doubles (32), which is a good thing. Power potential. Probably will have to play second at the big leagues. He is only 23.
8. Colton Cain – why Cain this high? He is 19 and has an 8.35 k/9 and a 1.06 WHIP. That is really good. Sure he walked three guys for every 9 innings, but that is something that should improve with age. I am ready for him to get a shot at a full season. Seems early injury troubles did not slow him down.
9. Zack Von Rosenburg. He does not have the K’s Cain has, but much better control. Only a 1.94 BB/9 and a 44% ground ball rate to boot. He might start next year at A+, especially since one has to think Allie and Taillon are going to start at West Virginia (A). If he stays at WV can you imagine the starting rotation (Taillon, Allie, ZVR, and Cain). Wow.
10. Andrew Lambo. What a steal the Pirates got here. An outfielder who is still very young and hitting great. Signs of power at the AA level. Might even be higher, but a history of substance abuse has me worried. The next suspension would break his career. Hope the Pirates can find a place for this guy in their line up.
11. Jordy Mercer. I am not sure why everyone over looks Jordy. Better defense than Chase, and higher average this year as well (.279). High double count, and history of good RBI production. About a 20% line drive rate. Add to that the fact that he can play 3B, 2B, and SS, and you have a highly valued prospect.
12. Luis Heredia. The hype is there, but I cannot put him above some of the guys that are producing at AA level. I hope he lives up to it, but before this 16 year old throws a professional pitch, I cannot put him in the top 10. But over 90 MPH as a 16 year old is great news for the Pirates. Expect to see him GCL next year.
13. Bryan Morris. Okay Morris had a good year, but I am not sold. He has more bad ones than good ones and he should have dominated A+ at his age considering it was not his first time in it. Most people have him in the top 10. I hope that his new mechanics have made him that much better, but he has a history of attitude problems as well. He needs more than one good year to jump up to the top 10. If he does it next year at AAA, then the Pirates have just won the Jason Bay trade.
14. Nick Kingham. Okay, here is where I put him. Projects as at least a 3rd starter. Maybe higher. His first taste of pitching at Rookie league looked good. Strikeouts, no runs, multiple innings. He should be in the top 15 of the Pirates Prospects.
15. Brock Holt. Holt was on fire before his injury. Plus, this was all done at the A+ level. I did not expect him to jump to that level this year, but he showed he was up for he challenge. .354 AVG and .848 OPS in just about 200 ABs. I like Holt. Hope he comes back from the knee okay.
16. Daniel Moskos. I know that this might be high for him, but I think his stats were pretty good. He killed at AA, but struggled a little in AAA. Still 8.8 K/9 is good, and real good for a closer. Sure his walks were too high, but part of that was his struggle at AAA. He has the stuff to be a closer. Remember that this is his first year in the pen in the minors. Not a bad first year.
17. Mel Rojas Jr. Next year will be the year to see how good this kid can be. He has swoons right now, but it is the longest year of his career when you add in the full college season, so some of that should be expected. I want to see this guy over a full professional season. He has all the tools. Only 19.
18. Victor Black – this guy is still good. He had 4.2 innings this year, but still struck out 8 guys. He was hurt in training camp, got hurt again quick. Some of his bad stats are surely related to that injury. He misses an important year, but don’t forget this guy. At worst a very hard throwing closer.
19. Nathan Adcock. 7 K/9 and 49% ground ball rate. Looks good to me. He did this at A+, which makes me ranking him higher than some similar pitchers in the system like Miller, Lorin, and Irwin. Can he do it again next year at a higher level? I sure hope so.
20. Josh Harrison – again he had a real disappointing year last year. I want to see him do it again before I really get excited about him. He was weak after the trade last year, but this year is a different story. I expect him in AAA next year. If he could play short stop rather than just 3B and 2B, it would raise his value.
21. John Bowker. Some power at the AAA level. I like him. But not a lot because he has not been able to show the same stuff at the majors. I think it says good things about the Pirate farm system that he is outside of the top 20. He is out of options, so he has to be a back up at the majors this year. I think his power would follow him to the majors if he got the time, but there in lies the real problem.
22. Michael Dubee – good year and at AAA. It will be interesting to see if he makes the 40 man roster. He was formerly a highly regarded guy. He may have earned that back this year.
23. Quintin Miller. Some injuries slowed him this year. 5.5 K/9 is low, but he gives up a very small number of homers, and a 50% ground ball rate makes me think he has the potential to be a reliable back end starter.
24. Eric Avila. I like this kid. .277 Avg is good, but look at his power potential. He had 7 HRs and 14 doubles in rookie ball. Had good power numbers last year in Dominican too. Still young so this ought to increase.
25. Brett Lorin. An injury plagued year makes it hard to place him. Nothing above A ball, so that hurts his ranking too. 8 K/9 is solid. He could be good.
26. Tyler Waldron. Not sure if he is going to be able to stay a starter, but has convinced me to give him a shot. So his low end is hard throwing bullpen guy. I’ll take it.
27. Justin Wilson. Almost 8 K/9, but also near 4 BB/9. 50% ground ball rate makes up for it a little. 22 and in AA. He has to control his walks. But if he can get that under control, he can pitch at the big league level.
28. Robbie Grossman – yes this is a big fall in my rankings for Robbie. He did move up in competition, but he continues to swoon in the middle of the season. He was awful in May and June, but has hit .275 in July and August. His inability to hit on the road is a problem. Lots of walks, but tons of strikeouts. That did decrease some this year. Still young, but he is getting passed by with the other great prospects coming into the Pirate system.
29. Matt Curry. He hit well in State College. He could use more power since he is playing first base, but right now is the best first base prospect in the system.
30. Jared Lakind. I know, I know. This one is mostly hype. But he has potential on the mound or at the plate. That makes him worthy of this list.
31. Brooks Pounders – this guy has a 6.34 K/9 and a 2.5 BB/9 at the age of 19. Still he gives up one homer per 9 innings. That lowers him.
32. Nathan Baker. A decent strike out rate at 6.4 K/9. A 2.2 BB/9 is okay, but it was in A and A+ competition, so he is not going to be as high as say Justin Wilson who is the same age. 44% ground ball rate is not bad.
33. Trent Stevenson. I have to say I am little disappointed in Stevenson. He was drafted last year with the rest of the young guns, but Stevenson is older than they are. I was hoping he would show that age at these low levels with strong performances. So might be graded low because of my disappointment.
34. Philip Irwin. Age keeps him down. 23 ought to be good in A ball. Still a 8.3 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9 is nice. 48% groundball looks real good. He should move up in the system. Next year in High A ought to be very telling. UPDATE: Promoted to a A+ at the end of the season. Too late to factor into ranking.
35. Zack Dodson. 6.5 K/9 is not so bad for this 20 year old in A-. I had higher hopes. His walks are also too high. But he does not give up the long ball and is a 92-93 MPH guy. I still think he has potential to be a back end starter.
36. Drew Maggi. This might be a little low for Drew. He has not had a lot of big league at bats. His defense ought to be up to snuff, but I am more worried than the Pirates about his offense. Still, if he finds a decent bat, this guy could be a starting short stop for the Pirates. His ranking should show I am skeptical of starting abilities for him.
37. Alex Presley. This guy had a great year. But he will be left off the 40 man roster again and it is hard to argue against it. Log jam at his position, and without real power (12 HRs), he does not have a great case despite the excellent year.
38. Evan Chambers. A bit of a disappointing year for Evan. Good power projection with 20 doubles and 13 HRs, but a .240 AVG is a killer especially with the high outfield talent in the Pirate system. It is not too late for him to come on and rise in these rankings.
39. Justin Howard. No power numbers hurt this kid. First base is a power position. Still cannot ignore his .341 AVG. It will be easier to place Howard after he sees some tough competition. Rookie league was clearly to low for him, but other guys stand above him. Maybe next year at WV would make the difference.
40. Jarek Cunningham. I am not as high on this guy as some. Great power numbers with 32 doubles and 12 HRs, but his average is far too low. Only musters a .763 OPS. Not sure he can stay as a shortstop defensively either.
41. Donald Veal. Yes, I dropped him because of his injury mostly. Plus 4 BB/9 is way to high for a guy in AAA with a taste of the majors previously. A bad sign for his future in my opinion.
42. Michael Crotta. A great year for Michael. I don’t think his stats support him being a starter. Not enough velocity. But, this guy might be a plug in the bullpen. A long relief guy capable of making an emergency spot start.
43. Tony Watson. He missed some time last year because of an injury. This is a good comback year. His age is going to hurt him. I still could see him making the bullpen one day. 8.6 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9. That could do the trick in the pen.
44. Diego Moreno. A strike out machine. 15 k/9 with only 1.5 BB/9 and a .70 WHIP. Look out bullpen this guy is a shoe in. Why not higher? Well, AA proved a bit much for him. I need to see success at that level for this 24 year old guy.
45. Adalbeto Santos. Nice year, but where is he going to play defensively? He is small and already displaced in the infield and taking some outfield starts. If his bat stays good, he could be a good prospect, but he has yet to face pitching that includes a lot more than fastball location.
46. Tim Alderson. He is 21 so I won’t throw him under the bus yet. But this kid’s psyche looks ruined. Biggest disappointment in the minor league system.
47. Calvin Anderson. I thought he would be higher, but he collapsed in July. Never recovered.
48. Matt Hague. Not enough power for first base. 25 and at AA. Still hit enough to make this list.
49. Junior Sosa. A 20 year old who hit above .300 most of the year (.296 on August 28). Not showing power potential, but was 20 out of 26 in stolen base attempts. Some one to keep your eye on as he progresses through the system. Should gain a better eye with more experience.
50. Zachary Foster. I still like this kid. He is 23 in A ball, but he struck out 41 in 57 innings. Still 20 walks is a bit bad. And you cannot rank bullpen guys all that high. 5 saves and 2 holds. Finished 20 games.


Some people who are not on this list, but still could find their way on are Aaron Pribonic (strike out rate way too low), Brandon Crompton (This kid came in a pitched really well in his limited pro time but want to see more of him before I get too excited), Quincy Latimore (nice power, but his average is uninspiring), Gorkys Hernandez (this kid is running out of time), Kyle McPherson (great year, but is it for real?), Erik Fryer (good stats at catcher but 25 and in A+ lowers that some), Exicardo Cayonez (high potential, needs plate discipline), Jared Hughes (walk rate is too high. Strike out rate is okay at 6 K/9, but homer rate is a bit elevated. For a guy with 55% ground ball rate it is worrisome so many left the yard), Vincent Payne (drafted this year and had decent beginning), Jeremy Farrel (.868 OPS), Aaron Baker (18 HRs), and Kevin Decker (okay probably not, but he is a Southern Conference man, and I will give him homer attention!).

All in all you can see the Pirates are loaded on pitchers and short on hitters. Still the Pirates look much better this year in the minors than last year. A rash of injuries stopped a few guys from really filling up the stat sheet. I also think we are beginning to see the impact of the Pirates investing in Latin America. The signing of Heredia, the continued improvement of Marte, and good years for Avila and Sosa make the Pirates a deeper organization.

Nick Kingham

So, a lot of fun speculation about the order of prospects in the Pirates system has been going on since the draft. Most of it has been about where to place Allie and the recently signed Heredia. Appropriate questions of course, but I think the better question is where to place Nick Kingham. Kingham has a very high upside. He has 3rd starter written on him right now, and he is only 17. He could very well pick up more MPH on his fastball. That would raise his status even more. So where Nick Kingham fits to me is a very interesting question. The beginning of the answer to that question started last night.

Kingham pitched two innings allowing three hits, but no runs, and two strikeouts. Not a bad debut. Of course he was not the only debut. A couple of other draft guys are seeing action now at the GCL level who might also make an impact for the Pirates one day. Lakind and Grovat played the field. Neither got a hit. Brandon Crompton pitched well in his first start (2nd appearance), and has yet to give up a run. So a good start for the other top 10 draftee. Where these guys fit in the picture is awful interesting. Looking forward to seeing them more.

Not good (13-26)

The Pirates are clearly not ready for prime time with the sweep by the Cards. Not much to say on that front. Tabata continues to be great, McCutchen is McCutchen, and Alvarez got a hit. Other than that, nothing good.

So let us go to the minors for some good news. State College followed up a great outing yesterday by Zack Von Rosenberg with a win. It was a 7-6 come back win. Zack Dodson was only so-so in his four innings. No walks three strike outs but 6 runs 5 of which were earned. Trent Stevenson continues to look really good as he went three innings with only one hit a walk and mutliple strike outs. Mel Rojas went hitless, but he is donig pretty well.

Altoona won off of the efforts of Hector Gimenez. How this guy fits into the future of the Pirates is interesting. They just got another catcher in the trade with Arizona, and Sanchez is coming, but Gimenez is looking rather good right now.

Indy lost big. They are not a good team with all of their talent raided by the majors. Charlie Morton started and only gave up one earned run, but showed the same problems he always has: unable to work when the going is tough. He gave up two more unearned runs, and he walked six. That is not good. The loss came when Daniel Moskos struggled again. He has really fallen off at Triple A. His ERA is above 9. I hope he gets it together because next year's pen might need him.

The Maurders were rained out.

That is why Malholm is the ace (9-17)

Sometimes Paul Malholm shows you why he has front of the rotation potential. He out dueled Roy Oswalt tonight for a complete game three hitter. He can do this from time to time, but he is unable to put it together consistently enough to be a true ace, but on this team he is the ace.

It was also another hit parade with multiple hits for most of the team. Walker is on a tear. Jones ended the drought of innings without a multi-run homerun. That was good to see. Milledge continues to impress. Alvarez got his hit, and low and behold Cedano had four hits. No kidding. Big win for the Pirates. We did still have some base running mistakes. Milledge was nailed going home on a play he had no business trying to make. Carols Lee in shallow left field nailed him after taking two extra steps and double clutching. The Catcher had plenty of time to get it and make a clean tag. The game was still in the second inning.

McCutchen did come out of the game after making a nice diving catch. He was favoring his throwing arm and X-rays showed no fratures and it is simply a strained AC joint, which is a shoulder strain. He will probably miss tomorrow's game, but will not miss significant time.

In other news Mel Rojas Jr., went 1 for 4 in his debut with a run scored at State College. They got the win. Jarek Cunningham homered in the 12th and then Kyle Morgan singled home Aaron Baker to add another run that West Virgina ended up needing. Still they hung on for the win. The other teams not so good. Altoona was unable to pull off another 10 run 9th inning, which they would have needed to get the win. Last night's 18-15 come from behind miracle win was followed up by a 4-13 loss. It was not really Justin Wilson's fault who pitched well enough. The 8 run 8th inning came on Cory Hamman's watch. D'Arnaud had an RBI double and Jordy Mercer had a base hit and scored a run and Josh Harrison had a hit as well.

Jordy Mercer - a prospect?

Pirates lost again. 4-3. Good news is that Alvarez and Tabata had multiple hits each. Enough about that, I want to address some discussion about Jordy Mercer and whether or not he is a prospect.

My answer is: Of course he is, and I think he might actually be a good one.

First, let us not forget Jordy was selected right there with D'Arnaud, and in fact was put in a higher minor league system to begin last year letting you know who the Pirates thought better at the beginning of last year.

But, let us just look at the stats. We will just use the two others mentioned: Chase D'arnaud and Jarek Cunningham. Remember as we look at this Cunningham is in Low A ball, so he is facing considerably weaker pitching.

Cunningham hit .318 in Rookie League in 08 with an impressive .892 OPS. This year he is hitting .266 with a .745 OPS. He had an awful May which lowered his stats a lot. He has only walked 20 times and struck out 70, so that is not very good plate discipline. He has 6 HRs and 24 doubles.

Chase D'Arnaud hit .286 in State College, and even better an overall .293 last year in A ball. But this year he is hitting only .243 with an OPS of .686 down from .852. D'Arnaud has only 2 HRs, but 23 doubles this year.

Jordy Mercer hit .250 his first year spread over State College and Hickory. He hit .255 last year in High A with an OPS of .713. This year he is hitting .272 with an OPS of 697. Mercer has 3 HRs and 19 doubles.

But we need to go a little deeper. Take a look again.

Cunningham is hitting .284 with nobody on, .242 with runners on, and even less, .232, with runners in scoring position. Thus, he has 30 RBIs this year and a total minor league career of 55.

D'Arnaud is hitting .211 with nobody on, .293 with runners on, and .321 with runners in scoring position. D'arnaud then has 31 RBIs this year and a two year total of 88.

Now Jordy Mercer is hitting .205 with no one on, .345 with runners on, and .316 with runners in scoring position. Giving Mercer 42 RBIs this year and a two year total of 125.

Prospects ought to hit better with runners on because pitchers have to pitch to you. Cunningham gets worse, and is facing worse pitching. His strike out total is to high, and walks too low.

Add to that the fact that Mercer is far and away the best fielder, and D'arnaud is so error prone it could keep him off the field.

Jordy Mercer is a prospect. I think D'arnaud might still project a little better, but I think that Mercer is a legit prospect.

That stinks! (7-14)

The Pirates absolutely blew a game today. McCutchen had two hits (1 a homer), two RBIs, and a run scored. Tabata had two hits and a run scored. Walker had a hit, Jones had a hit, Alvarez had a hit and an RBI. Milledge had two hits (1 a homer), a run, and an RBI. Even Cedano had a hit and a run scored. Paul Malholm had a quality start by going 7 strong. The Pirates are up by two going into the 8th inning. The Pirates have to win those games.

Hanrahan gave up a run, and "Doh"tel made an appearance and the game was tied. Then even Evan Meek failed, and the Brewers took one that should have been ours.

Just to make matters worse, every Pirate minor league team lost tonight as well with the possible exception of the Dominican Summer League Pirates who have yet to play as of the writting of this post. Von Rosenburg took the loss for State College, although he only allowed one run in 5 innings and struck out 4 and only walked one. Cain gave up two runs in 4 innings, struck out 5 and walked 2. So, if we are looking for good news there were some nice performaces by prospects, just no wins.

Minor League Look In

With an off day it seems good to take a minute and look at the Minor Leagues.

Indy is almost a waste of our time. All the talent is in the majors. Pearce, Karstens, Alvarez, Walker, Tabata, Lincoln, and some others from the pen are all up in the bigs. A prime example of their struggles is the double header they just played getting shut out in both. They have some cast off major leaguers that we will probably see in call up time like Morton (doing awful), Eveland (lost tonight), and Aki (getting better), but the real people to watch are yet to arrive with the exception of Daniel Moskos. He is pitching just as well so far in AAA. He looks real good.

Altoona is the home of the stars of the next wave to arrive late next year. While Tim Alderson is having a so-so year, Rudy Owens has been great. Jordy Mercer and Harrison have been excellent at the plate. Chase D'Arnaud is struggling with his average, he still is second in the whole league in doubles. The man hits for extra bases. A very good sign. Gorkys is not doing so well. Hovering at .250 is not good enough.

Bradenton also featured the Next Next Wave, but sadly they are all hurt. Sanchez, Kratz, Holt, and others have all hit the DL. That left Robbie Grossman, but he is not hitting any more. He strikes out a lot, but does draw the walk. So too early to give up on such a young kid, but not exactly a leap forward for him. Jeff Locke, however, is amazing. He needs a promotion. As does Nathan Adcock. The pitching of these two guys keeps Bradenton a place to watch.

West Virginia are not a great team. Hopefully some people will join them out of State College. Evan Chambers is a possible prospect. He is not tearing it up. Even my man Zachary Foster is struggling there. All around a bad year. This is the worst spot right now for the Pirates. A surprise in WV is David Rubenstein, 11th round in 08. He is hitting .328 with an .829 OPS. He is hitting over .300 off both righties and lefties and hitting almost .400 away from home. Maybe there is something to this guy.

State College is full of pitching prospects, but not many with the stick. Von Rosenberg is here, but not dominating. Trent Stephenson is doing just okay. Zachary Dodson might be doing the best. He got a no decision with 5 strikeouts in 4 innings on the 4th. These guys are going to be fine, but for the Spikes to win they need unbelievable pitching. They are not getting it. Some of this year's guys are here. Kevin Decker is pitching okay here. Tyler Waldron looked good in one of his starts here. And right now Alberto Santos (22nd round pick) is hitting .358 with a 1.021 OPS.

GCL is a pretty poor looking group right now as well. Colton Cain is pitching down here and did good once, but struggled his next time out. He did strike out five in 3.2 on the 3rd of this month. So he is looking pretty good. The rest of the team is really a lot of non-drafted signees. Some look good, but it is a bit early to tell. Eric Avilia is hitting .333, Kevin Mort is hitting .292. Joey Schonfield is struggling (last year's 10th round guy). He is the everyday catcher, but he needs to be hitting better.

That is a quick look at the minors. I will try to get run down of draftees signed soon.

Pirates rolling and Miller back. (6-10)

The Pirates are undefeated in July and Quentin Miller is back and pitched 2 perfect innings with one strike out for GCL Pirates, Marte will start on Saturday in GCL and Walker will start in the bigs on Sat. More importantly Lincoln, McCutchen, and Ohlendorf all got their first wins this year. Since this will be the nucleus of next year's staff, this is great news. All pitched great and went deep into the game.

The Pirates acheived the series victory over the hated Phils when McCutchen pitched 5.1 of great baseball and Meek killed any hope of a comeback as the Phils were shut out. Dotel got a save. Tonight Ohlendorf went 7 shut out innings, and Hanrahan and Dotel pitched a perfect 8 and 9. The two runs for the Pirates were by McCutchen and Doumit, and they were unearned.

The back end of the Pirate bull pen is solid. Meek, Hanrahan, and Dotel are excellent. In fact, trade rumors are floating for Dotel, especially with the Marlins who know we are interested in at least John Raynor. Still, I hope we get more than that in return. I do expect Dotel to go. Javier Lopez has been a fairly solid guy, especially good when they put him as an exclusive lefty-lefty guy. Since the bullpen market this year is slow, he may go as well.

Prospect Watch

It has been a while since I did a good look at the next wave of prospects. I won't be focusing on Alex Pressley who went 5 for 6 and had the cycle last night.

Altoona has the next wave of people who will be arriving. Daniel Moskos was just promoted to AAA, so he is well on his way to joining the Pirates. Rudy Owens is the next big thing, and he is putting together a year that shows it. Owens pitched last night (got the win), and threw good. Four hits in five innings with 4 strikeouts, and only one earned run. His ERA is 2.74 and his record is 7-3. The other big names to watch are D'Arnaud who is still struggling. He is hitting .238, but does get a lot of extra basehits. Jordy Mercer is continuing to be an RBI producer (37) and is getting his hitting stroke back (.262). Of note he is playing 2B now and has played every infield position but 1B. Harrison (3B) may also be a prospect and he is doing better than last year. A .314 AVG and ability to play muliple infield positions makes him look good. Tim Alderson is struggling a bit. 48 strikeouts is not so good, and those have come in bunches. He is not winning like he did in the past (6-4). I think Alderson can be a back end starter, but I am losing hope for him being a great major league pitcher.

Bradenton's prospects are almost all gone. Sterling Marte is out with an injury. Brock Holt is out with an injury. Tony Sanchez is hurt. All were doing excellent. Robbie Grossman is hitting poorly (.210) with two many strikeouts. His glove is still solid, and it is too early to write this kid off. Owen Latimore is hitting .274 with some power and he may be a prospect. In the end, most of the stars are now pitchers. Nathan Adcock and Jeff Locke are doing well. Both deserve a promotion with WHIP's of 1.11 and 1.13. Aaron Pribonic has struggled, but shows signs of promise and Brian Leach is doing what he needs, but is not dominating.

It is a little early for the State College Spikes, but some reasons to be excited. Chase Lyles a very late draft pick from Northwestern is hitting great at almost .350. Adalberto Santos (in only 7 games) is showing real potential as well with a .919 OPS. Jhonathon Rhamos has an amazing 0.17 WHIP after two apperances (6 innings) and a 6 to 1 K to BB ratio. Brooks Pounders has a 0.78 WHIP and after nine innings has yet to walk a batter. Last year's draft picks of Von Rosenberg, Dodson, and Fuesser are all struggling a bit. Dodson has more walks than strike outs, Fuesser has a 7 to 4 ration, and Von Rossenberg is giving up a lot of hits, but has shown great control so far. This year's picks Decker and Waldron (4th round pick) are adjusting to the game. Both have 1.54 WHIPs and they have a 1 to 1 ratio of walks to strikes.

It is too early for Rookie league stuff, but I think there is a lot to get excited about.