Saturday, July 10, 2010

Jordy Mercer - a prospect?

Pirates lost again. 4-3. Good news is that Alvarez and Tabata had multiple hits each. Enough about that, I want to address some discussion about Jordy Mercer and whether or not he is a prospect.

My answer is: Of course he is, and I think he might actually be a good one.

First, let us not forget Jordy was selected right there with D'Arnaud, and in fact was put in a higher minor league system to begin last year letting you know who the Pirates thought better at the beginning of last year.

But, let us just look at the stats. We will just use the two others mentioned: Chase D'arnaud and Jarek Cunningham. Remember as we look at this Cunningham is in Low A ball, so he is facing considerably weaker pitching.

Cunningham hit .318 in Rookie League in 08 with an impressive .892 OPS. This year he is hitting .266 with a .745 OPS. He had an awful May which lowered his stats a lot. He has only walked 20 times and struck out 70, so that is not very good plate discipline. He has 6 HRs and 24 doubles.

Chase D'Arnaud hit .286 in State College, and even better an overall .293 last year in A ball. But this year he is hitting only .243 with an OPS of .686 down from .852. D'Arnaud has only 2 HRs, but 23 doubles this year.

Jordy Mercer hit .250 his first year spread over State College and Hickory. He hit .255 last year in High A with an OPS of .713. This year he is hitting .272 with an OPS of 697. Mercer has 3 HRs and 19 doubles.

But we need to go a little deeper. Take a look again.

Cunningham is hitting .284 with nobody on, .242 with runners on, and even less, .232, with runners in scoring position. Thus, he has 30 RBIs this year and a total minor league career of 55.

D'Arnaud is hitting .211 with nobody on, .293 with runners on, and .321 with runners in scoring position. D'arnaud then has 31 RBIs this year and a two year total of 88.

Now Jordy Mercer is hitting .205 with no one on, .345 with runners on, and .316 with runners in scoring position. Giving Mercer 42 RBIs this year and a two year total of 125.

Prospects ought to hit better with runners on because pitchers have to pitch to you. Cunningham gets worse, and is facing worse pitching. His strike out total is to high, and walks too low.

Add to that the fact that Mercer is far and away the best fielder, and D'arnaud is so error prone it could keep him off the field.

Jordy Mercer is a prospect. I think D'arnaud might still project a little better, but I think that Mercer is a legit prospect.

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