Prospect Update

It is midseason, time to see how my Top 50 Prospects are doing.

I'll just put the updates in bold, so we can see my thoughts from last year.

1. Jameson Tallion. Taillon has plus pitches already. Not potential, but already. High 90’s, great curve. Slider. Knows a change up, but that is probably the pitch that will get the most work. Staff Ace, almost sure fire all star. Just needs to avoid arm problems. West Virginia will be worth seeing play baseball next year. Maybe a hotter ticket than the Pirates.
Nothing but good news here. He is having a good showing in his first full season. Some tiredness, but that is to be expected.
2. Rudy Owens – why Rudy Owens so high? Well,7.5 K/9 and more importantly 1.4 BB/9. That is the best of all pitching prospects in the system. Also 47% ground ball rate is good. And he did it all at AA. No lower competition in these numbers.
Oh my. What has happened. Owens has been lit up. Walks surprisingly up, strike outs down. He did strike out 8 in his last outing, so maybe that is a good sign, but he will be dropping.
3. Stetson Allie. The only question with this guy is if he can be a starter. I see no reason why not. He can reach 100 mph, and I think his control on those pitches will come. His other stuff is already good, and that makes him a potential staff ace.
His control is not good, but that is improvable. That is why he started a level below Taillon. Still he has the ability to strike out the side. Looks good.
4. Sterling Marte. Marte was poised for a promotion before the injury to his hand. He suffered a rehab set back to lose more time, but still came back with the same level of good hitting (.333 AVG and .877 OPS), and good fielding. I think Marte has answered any questions about being able to compete at the higher levels. Still could develop some power, and thus looks to be a future starting outfielder for the Pirates. Can play any position in the outfield.
Has not missed a beat. Probably will be getting a call up to AAA soon.
5. Tony Sanchez. A real shame that he got hit in the face and missed so much time. He gets beaned a lot. His defense is good. His bat continues to be better than had hoped for (.314 AVG and .870 OPS). He hits more line drives than I thought. About a 25% clip. I am starting to be a believer in Sanchez. However, he is not a world changing prospect. I think he is over rated by those who put him in the top two or three.
Started off well in AA, but has regressed. No power right now, but he was not really a power hitter when we drafted him. Some questions about his defense have arisen and that is bad. Disappointing year so far, but on the good side, no ill affects from his injuries.
6. Jeff Locke. 8.5 K/9 and a 1.5 BB/9 along with 43% ground ball rate is great. Throw in the promotion in the middle of the year to AA without missing a beat, and I am a believer. I think Locke is a key move by Hunington in the unofficial project 2012. By 2012 the Pirates will have a new pitching staff, and Locke will be a part of it.
Just an awful year for Jeff. He has not taken a step forward and is not looking to get a promotion soon. He has been very hittable.
7. Chase D’Arnaud. A rough year for his average, but he got better as the year went on. Part of the reason he has dropped a little. Still, he hits lots of doubles (32), which is a good thing. Power potential. Probably will have to play second at the big leagues. He is only 23.
He has played okay in the majors. Was hitting very well in AAA. He was asked to play 3B in the majors and did so-so. His time at short has shown that he is probably not a major league short stop. Still, his speed is scary and his hitting looks like it will be decent in the majors.
8. Colton Cain – why Cain this high? He is 19 and has an 8.35 k/9 and a 1.06 WHIP. That is really good. Sure he walked three guys for every 9 innings, but that is something that should improve with age. I am ready for him to get a shot at a full season. Seems early injury troubles did not slow him down.
Expect Colton to move up the list. He has been great. He has admitted to some tiredness, but so far he is a top prospect and projects well.
9. Zack Von Rosenburg. He does not have the K’s Cain has, but much better control. Only a 1.94 BB/9 and a 44% ground ball rate to boot. He might start next year at A+, especially since one has to think Allie and Taillon are going to start at West Virginia (A). If he stays at WV can you imagine the starting rotation (Taillon, Allie, ZVR, and Cain). Wow.
He has gotten hammered and is giving up as many homers as walks. So he is clearly leaving the ball up. However, the walks are low and he is still getting decent strike out numbers. The leaving the ball up is fixable.
10. Andrew Lambo. What a steal the Pirates got here. An outfielder who is still very young and hitting great. Signs of power at the AA level. Might even be higher, but a history of substance abuse has me worried. The next suspension would break his career. Hope the Pirates can find a place for this guy in their line up.
He had to be demoted after not being able to handle AAA pitching. Bad sign, bad news.
11. Jordy Mercer. I am not sure why everyone over looks Jordy. Better defense than Chase, and higher average this year as well (.279). High double count, and history of good RBI production. About a 20% line drive rate. Add to that the fact that he can play 3B, 2B, and SS, and you have a highly valued prospect.
Mercer has lowered his strike out rate, re-discovered power, and still is a good defender. He had a little bit of a slow start to AAA, but is showing power there too.
12. Luis Heredia. The hype is there, but I cannot put him above some of the guys that are producing at AA level. I hope he lives up to it, but before this 16 year old throws a professional pitch, I cannot put him in the top 10. But over 90 MPH as a 16 year old is great news for the Pirates. Expect to see him GCL next year.
Okay, he can pitch. He will be in the top 10 now that he has thrown his first professional pitches. The kid has velocity and is doing better than you would think at the GCL as a 16 year old.
13. Bryan Morris. Okay Morris had a good year, but I am not sold. He has more bad ones than good ones and he should have dominated A+ at his age considering it was not his first time in it. Most people have him in the top 10. I hope that his new mechanics have made him that much better, but he has a history of attitude problems as well. He needs more than one good year to jump up to the top 10. If he does it next year at AAA, then the Pirates have just won the Jason Bay trade.
Morris did not keep up his resurgence. He is now a bullpen guy, but doing okay from the pen. He could be a part of the pen next year, maybe even in September call ups if they elevate him to AAA soon.
14. Nick Kingham. Okay, here is where I put him. Projects as at least a 3rd starter. Maybe higher. His first taste of pitching at Rookie league looked good. Strikeouts, no runs, multiple innings. He should be in the top 15 of the Pirates Prospects.
A little inconsistent, but you can see the promise. He had one dominating start and a few other okay and one rocky. Still, Kingham looks good.
15. Brock Holt. Holt was on fire before his injury. Plus, this was all done at the A+ level. I did not expect him to jump to that level this year, but he showed he was up for he challenge. .354 AVG and .848 OPS in just about 200 ABs. I like Holt. Hope he comes back from the knee okay.
The knee is okay. AA has not slowed Holt down. He is hitting at a near .300 clip. He too might see AAA by the end of the year.
16. Daniel Moskos. I know that this might be high for him, but I think his stats were pretty good. He killed at AA, but struggled a little in AAA. Still 8.8 K/9 is good, and real good for a closer. Sure his walks were too high, but part of that was his struggle at AAA. He has the stuff to be a closer. Remember that this is his first year in the pen in the minors. Not a bad first year.
Moskos has made the majors, but will probably return to AAA when Biemel is healthy. He was great in AAA and not bad in the big leagues. He will start off on the roster next year and will be called back up in September for sure.
17. Mel Rojas Jr. Next year will be the year to see how good this kid can be. He has swoons right now, but it is the longest year of his career when you add in the full college season, so some of that should be expected. I want to see this guy over a full professional season. He has all the tools. Only 19.
Rojas started very slowly and still has swoons. But some power potential and great speed.
18. Victor Black – this guy is still good. He had 4.2 innings this year, but still struck out 8 guys. He was hurt in training camp, got hurt again quick. Some of his bad stats are surely related to that injury. He misses an important year, but don’t forget this guy. At worst a very hard throwing closer.
Black is pitching out of the pen to help protect his arm. Probably will be a pen guy in the future. He is doing excellent out of the pen. I hope to see him promoted to High A soon. His age demands it.
19. Nathan Adcock. 7 K/9 and 49% ground ball rate. Looks good to me. He did this at A+, which makes me ranking him higher than some similar pitchers in the system like Miller, Lorin, and Irwin. Can he do it again next year at a higher level? I sure hope so.
Doing well . . . FOR THE ROYALS!!!
20. Josh Harrison – again he had a real disappointing year last year. I want to see him do it again before I really get excited about him. He was weak after the trade last year, but this year is a different story. I expect him in AAA next year. If he could play short stop rather than just 3B and 2B, it would raise his value.
The man is tearing up the majors with a .280 AVG. However, his defense is not starting material and he cannot take a walk to save his life. Good utility back up for years to come.
21. John Bowker. Some power at the AAA level. I like him. But not a lot because he has not been able to show the same stuff at the majors. I think it says good things about the Pirate farm system that he is outside of the top 20. He is out of options, so he has to be a back up at the majors this year. I think his power would follow him to the majors if he got the time, but there in lies the real problem.
He has potential, but has never really been given a long period of time to show it. He hits better than Overbay and can play 1B, but he will not get a shot. Doing well in AAA, but his time with the club is gone. Prospect status ought to be gone too. He has had lots of ABs in the majors now. Was DFAed and no one claimed him. That says it all.
22. Michael Dubee – good year and at AAA. It will be interesting to see if he makes the 40 man roster. He was formerly a highly regarded guy. He may have earned that back this year.
Bullpen arm is all he can ever be. Not keeping pace with last year.
23. Quintin Miller. Some injuries slowed him this year. 5.5 K/9 is low, but he gives up a very small number of homers, and a 50% ground ball rate makes me think he has the potential to be a reliable back end starter.
Miller needed to gain ground this year and more treaded water. Could be a prospect we throw in a trade package.
24. Eric Avila. I like this kid. .277 Avg is good, but look at his power potential. He had 7 HRs and 14 doubles in rookie ball. Had good power numbers last year in Dominican too. Still young so this ought to increase.
He has completely folded. He will drop off the prospect list for sure.
25. Brett Lorin. An injury plagued year makes it hard to place him. Nothing above A ball, so that hurts his ranking too. 8 K/9 is solid. He could be good.
I would have liked to see more progress, but this last half season will be important for him.
26. Tyler Waldron. Not sure if he is going to be able to stay a starter, but has convinced me to give him a shot. So his low end is hard throwing bullpen guy. I’ll take it.
Waldron has had mixed results. He has had an injury, but seems to be back and okay. Nothing to worry you here yet, but nothing to make you think he is not a bullpen prospect either.
27. Justin Wilson. Almost 8 K/9, but also near 4 BB/9. 50% ground ball rate makes up for it a little. 22 and in AA. He has to control his walks. But if he can get that under control, he can pitch at the big league level.
He has made the leap to AAA and is doing better there than Owens. Who would have thought?
28. Robbie Grossman – yes this is a big fall in my rankings for Robbie. He did move up in competition, but he continues to swoon in the middle of the season. He was awful in May and June, but has hit .275 in July and August. His inability to hit on the road is a problem. Lots of walks, but tons of strikeouts. That did decrease some this year. Still young, but he is getting passed by with the other great prospects coming into the Pirate system.
Grossmann is lowering his strikeout total. Gaining credibility as a leadoff hitter, but will probably never be a centerfield and has no real power. An Alex Presley type maybe.
29. Matt Curry. He hit well in State College. He could use more power since he is playing first base, but right now is the best first base prospect in the system.
The best season for a prospect so far. He dominated A ball and jumped all the way to AA. He has not dominated there, but is coming out of a little mini-slump. Power is still there, so he looks good.
30. Jared Lakind. I know, I know. This one is mostly hype. But he has potential on the mound or at the plate. That makes him worthy of this list.
Maybe the worst start ever for a prospect in Rookie League, but he has since hit multiple homers and is raising his average. I think he will be fine by year's end.
31. Brooks Pounders – this guy has a 6.34 K/9 and a 2.5 BB/9 at the age of 19. Still he gives up one homer per 9 innings. That lowers him.
A pretty good year mostly from the pen for Pounders. One wonders if the transition is permanent. He is raising his stock.
32. Nathan Baker. A decent strike out rate at 6.4 K/9. A 2.2 BB/9 is okay, but it was in A and A+ competition, so he is not going to be as high as say Justin Wilson who is the same age. 44% ground ball rate is not bad.
He is doing okay. Could be another prospect traded at the deadline.
33. Trent Stevenson. I have to say I am little disappointed in Stevenson. He was drafted last year with the rest of the young guns, but Stevenson is older than they are. I was hoping he would show that age at these low levels with strong performances. So might be graded low because of my disappointment.
Still disappointing me.
34. Philip Irwin. Age keeps him down. 23 ought to be good in A ball. Still a 8.3 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9 is nice. 48% groundball looks real good. He should move up in the system. Next year in High A ought to be very telling. UPDATE: Promoted to a A+ at the end of the season. Too late to factor into ranking.
Irwin dominated A+ this year, but should have as a 24 year old. He is getting his feet wet in AA which is big. Age wise he ought to be there or above. How he does the rest of the year is vital for his future.
35. Zack Dodson. 6.5 K/9 is not so bad for this 20 year old in A-. I had higher hopes. His walks are also too high. But he does not give up the long ball and is a 92-93 MPH guy. I still think he has potential to be a back end starter.
Just coming back from an injury. He will probably be moving up this list.
36. Drew Maggi. This might be a little low for Drew. He has not had a lot of big league at bats. His defense ought to be up to snuff, but I am more worried than the Pirates about his offense. Still, if he finds a decent bat, this guy could be a starting short stop for the Pirates. His ranking should show I am skeptical of starting abilities for him.
Another amazingly poor start. But he has been on fire lately. The kid can play Defense and hit A ball pitching. I am ready to see him rise a level.
37. Alex Presley. This guy had a great year. But he will be left off the 40 man roster again and it is hard to argue against it. Log jam at his position, and without real power (12 HRs), he does not have a great case despite the excellent year.
Okay, I underrated him. I thought he was a one year wonder. I was wrong. He will be off the list because I do not think goes back to AAA. Wow.
38. Evan Chambers. A bit of a disappointing year for Evan. Good power projection with 20 doubles and 13 HRs, but a .240 AVG is a killer especially with the high outfield talent in the Pirate system. It is not too late for him to come on and rise in these rankings.
He has had a melt down at A+. Not good.
39. Justin Howard. No power numbers hurt this kid. First base is a power position. Still cannot ignore his .341 AVG. It will be easier to place Howard after he sees some tough competition. Rookie league was clearly to low for him, but other guys stand above him. Maybe next year at WV would make the difference.
Can hit, but lacks power. A powerless first baseman is not going to rise too high in this ranking.
40. Jarek Cunningham. I am not as high on this guy as some. Great power numbers with 32 doubles and 12 HRs, but his average is far too low. Only musters a .763 OPS. Not sure he can stay as a shortstop defensively either.
Starting to come around a little, but still needs to finish well to keep prospect status going forward.
41. Donald Veal. Yes, I dropped him because of his injury mostly. Plus 4 BB/9 is way to high for a guy in AAA with a taste of the majors previously. A bad sign for his future in my opinion.
Is recovering from surgery and still in his rehab stint. He might could help the Pirates pen, but I don't think he has long term value anymore.
42. Michael Crotta. A great year for Michael. I don’t think his stats support him being a starter. Not enough velocity. But, this guy might be a plug in the bullpen. A long relief guy capable of making an emergency spot start.
He was a plug in the pen. I expect he will be called back up in September.
43. Tony Watson. He missed some time last year because of an injury. This is a good comback year. His age is going to hurt him. I still could see him making the bullpen one day. 8.6 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9. That could do the trick in the pen.
I wish he were better at the major league level against lefties, but he is still decent. He won't return to AAA.
44. Diego Moreno. A strike out machine. 15 k/9 with only 1.5 BB/9 and a .70 WHIP. Look out bullpen this guy is a shoe in. Why not higher? Well, AA proved a bit much for him. I need to see success at that level for this 24 year old guy.
Time will tell on him. Time will tell. I have a bad feeling he will not make it to the pros.
45. Adalbeto Santos. Nice year, but where is he going to play defensively? He is small and already displaced in the infield and taking some outfield starts. If his bat stays good, he could be a good prospect, but he has yet to face pitching that includes a lot more than fastball location.
Just does not have a position. He still hits okay, but is not going to find a spot to play. Probably will fall off of this list.
46. Tim Alderson. He is 21 so I won’t throw him under the bus yet. But this kid’s psyche looks ruined. Biggest disappointment in the minor league system.
He is thriving in the pen. He has his curve back and gets results, but is in AA still. He is only 22 so it might be early to erase him from the list, but he is nothing to be excited for. Clearly not worth Freddy Sanchez.
47. Calvin Anderson. I thought he would be higher, but he collapsed in July. Never recovered.
Collapse continues. Won't make the next list.
48. Matt Hague. Not enough power for first base. 25 and at AA. Still hit enough to make this list.
Hague is still hitting. If he had some power he would be in the majors. Still might make the team as a lot of people are clamoring for it. Probably moves up the list.
49. Junior Sosa. A 20 year old who hit above .300 most of the year (.296 on August 28). Not showing power potential, but was 20 out of 26 in stolen base attempts. Some one to keep your eye on as he progresses through the system. Should gain a better eye with more experience.
Did not make the State College club. Not good.
50. Zachary Foster. I still like this kid. He is 23 in A ball, but he struck out 41 in 57 innings. Still 20 walks is a bit bad. And you cannot rank bullpen guys all that high. 5 saves and 2 holds. Finished 20 games.
His age makes him no longer a prospect. With new draft picks clearly he will fall off this board.

Here are the other people I listed.
Some people who are not on this list, but still could find their way on are Aaron Pribonic (strike out rate way too low), Brandon Crompton (This kid came in a pitched really well in his limited pro time but want to see more of him before I get too excited), Quincy Latimore (nice power, but his average is uninspiring), Gorkys Hernandez (this kid is running out of time), Kyle McPherson (great year, but is it for real?), Erik Fryer (good stats at catcher but 25 and in A+ lowers that some), Exicardo Cayonez (high potential, needs plate discipline), Jared Hughes (walk rate is too high. Strike out rate is okay at 6 K/9, but homer rate is a bit elevated. For a guy with 55% ground ball rate it is worrisome so many left the yard), Vincent Payne (drafted this year and had decent beginning), Jeremy Farrel (.868 OPS), Aaron Baker (18 HRs), and Kevin Decker (okay probably not, but he is a Southern Conference man, and I will give him homer attention!).
McPherson is on the 40 man and I didn't have him in the top 50. I still don't understand that move, but he is living up to it so far. Promoted to AA and doing okay. Baker is hitting for power still, but was skipped by Curry. Crompton will make the next list as he has been lights out after a slow start. Cayonez is justifying my leaving him off the 50 Prospects list. Demoted back to State College.