Cards keep us in it, but it is all about the Reds

As the year winds down, it is almost impossible for the Pirates not to make the playoffs.  And I do have to pinch myself when I say that.  However, our bats have deserted us a bit at the end of this year and it cost us against San Diego.  We lost two winnable games and dropped out of first.  The good news is we found the bats today and St. Louis finally lost a close game to the Rockies.  We are a game out and that is doable.

However, the Reds are all that matter.  The Pirates need to get that first round bye or avoid the play in game, however you want to look at it.  But thanks to this series it is more in the hands of the Cards than us.  What the Pirates have to do is avoid dropping below the Reds so they can host that playoff game.  We have a head to head series coming up and it is very important.  VERY IMPORTANT.  All eyes will be watching one of the last real races in the majors.

I do think a word needs to be said about Gerrit Cole.  These last few weeks he has been everything you dreamed he would be when he was drafted.  He pitched us out of the slump that finally got the winning record.  He pitched great the next outing too.  And today he set a career high with 12 K's, breaking another slump of 3 games.  Cole may be the ace now.  He is pitching like it.  This is great news for the future of the Pirates.

So too is the news about Fall Ball.  Jameson Taillon will be pitching for the Scorpions (I think that is who we are associated with).  Taillon did well at Triple A and if he can do will in a very hitter friendly environment, he is not long for the minors next year.  I am just as excited about Phil Irwin going out to Arizona.  Irwin has been a winner at every level and made it to the majors this year only to get hurt.  This means he is back and ready to pitch.  Getting him a few innings is what he needs.  He will be on the outside looking in next year thanks to this injury, but I do believe Irwin has the ability to be a 5th starter in the majors, and a good one.  It is good to see him back.

A Dissenting View on the Trades

So, I have been so nervous that I can barely think much less write blogs.

However, the trading deadline and the trades that have taken place afterward have me a little upset.  Now, I am not all that bothered by either trade in isolation, but I worry about a front office view of relievers that is not realistic when you combine the two trades.

I understand why Byrd and Buck were acquired.  We needed another outfield even with a healthy Marte.  An upgrade of the backup catcher is not bad either.  But I am a big fan of Dilsen Herrera, and have a higher view of him than I do Alan Hansen, whose defense is just awful, and I think Herrera has power potential.  But hey, I guess you give up some stuff sometimes.  I really like Victor Black too.  I had them both in the top 10 prospects.  Black is a hard throwing possible closer.  He along with Welker both showed they could pitch at the major league level and both have future closer possibilities.

Now, Morneau is old, but has playoff experience and is probably an upgrade over Jones.  And I don't mind handing over Alex Presley because in the end Presley does not have a place in Pittsburgh.  With the emergence of Lambo, the off season addition of Jerry Sands, and the arrival next year of Polanco, there really is no place left for Alex at all.  And I can understand that cash or a PTBNL is required to finish it up.  But who?  It should have been a nobody.  Instead, it is now rumored to be Duke Welker.  This makes the deal unacceptable.

First, four future pieces when the Pirates are going to make the playoffs anyway is suspect since the return is all rentals.  Minor complaint.

Second, The Pirates just traded away the best two relievers in the organization.  The two guys who could be future closers will now be future late inning guys with other teams.  I worry that this represents an organizational mindset that relievers really can be found anywhere.  I am not sure that is realistic.  Yes, the Pirates have had some great success with Hanrahan, Grilli, Melanchon, and even back further with DJ Carrasco.  But let us not forget the whiffs with the likes of Chad Qualls.

The truly great relievers are usually homegrown and stay with a team for a long time.  See the now retiring Marino Rivera or Lee Smith.  The traveling closer is a hit and miss thing.  Ask the Red Sox about Hanrahan or the Nationals.  We have had some great success, but it is pretty arrogant to think we can always just find a reclamation project and make it work.  Eventually the percentages will swing back against us.  A homegrown closer from your own minor league system is not a bad thing and frankly a cheaper option.  Trading both Welker and Black is a big mistake.  Who is the best reliever left in the system now?  Tyler Waldron?

I get trading one of them.  We needed the Byrd and Buck trade.  But surely there was another way to complete the Morneau trade.  Next year Welker or Black could have stepped in to learn under Grilli and then stepped into the closer role after Grilli is done.  I hope that this dumping of our great relievers does not come back to haunt us in a few years.  I want long term success not just a division title this year.  

Trade Deadline

The Pirates are now a half game behind the St. Louis Cardinals.  They are playing two more games here in this stretch, but the real question is whether or not these two teams will look the same by the time this series ends.  The trade deadline looms, and both teams are probably going to make some moves.

The Cards are clearly going to move some pieces and have been attached to a lot of players in rumors.  However, the Pirates have seemingly been rebuffed.  They were interested in Alex Rios from the White Sox, but the Sox want multiple top prospects plus another.  It appears Rios will be a White Sox for the rest of the year.  The Marlins have been just as negative if not more so on trading Stanton.  These are the two most consistent names I have seen connected to the Pirates.  You read the occasional long shot connection to someone like Cliff Lee, but that is not going to happen.  Jimmy Rollins basically said he was not going to wave his no trade clause, so that rules him out.  I do not think that any trade is going to happen this year.

In the end, I think that this is best.  We have some great prospects that I would rather see as Pirates than playing for someone else.  Gregory Polanco for example is one that teams would be asking for and inquiring on.  He is the future in the outfield, I don't think that the Pirates need to leverage the future right now.  We seem likely to make the playoffs, but I honestly don't think we are going to be able to make a run at the World Series.  And no matter who we add, I don't see any of that changing.

The trade deadline is an over rated thing.  Sure, we have a holes at first base (left hand hitting), short stop, and one corner outfielder.  It would be great to upgrade, but trade deadline deals have just a big a history of not working out as they do of putting people over the top.  We did make some good trades two years ago, and they all fell through.  The team got worse, when the talent actually got better.

If the Pirates were to make a minor move for someone like Justin Morneau, I would be okay.  He would take a prospect like a Matt Curry, which is not destroying future plans.  He would be a one year rental, but then that is all we need.  Mid level prospect for aging vet for one year.  Anything more than that, and I will be back in panic mode.

Short Season Ball

The Reds just split a series with us.  And while it was probably better to win the series at home, 2-2 is not too bad.  On to the Angels.  But today is about the excitement of short season ball.  Allow me to speak about who I am watching closely.

In Jamestown it I am watching Harold Ramirez.  He got a huge bonus a few years ago and looks to be a guy who can play.  Had a good year last year, and so the jump in competition is going to be revealing.

Elvis Escobar is also looking good as another outfielder.  Jamestown should not have problem with outfields spots with two legit prospects on the team.

Others are excited about Jin-De-Jhang.  I don't know a lot about him, but he has hype and two early homers, so he will get a watch.

Colten Brewer is still a pitcher I am looking forward to see.  He needs to stay healthy, but I think he still has rotation potential.

More guys will come to this team as more sign from the draft.

The GCL Pirates are even more interesting.  Here we get to see a lot of the high schoolers who signed this year and some who will still be signing.

Other than this year's stock I am hoping to see a good turn out from Candon Myles in the outfield.  He has a high upside.

Catcher looks stacked as I am sure everyone is going to be watching Reece McGuire, but I will also be hoping to see a good amount of Danny Arribas, a Dutchman who has some good international experience, and he is very young.  Able to play other positions, so it will be interesting to see if they let him in other places to get him some extra at bats.  He did play in the DSL last year and hit over .300.

Pitching should be interesting.  Jonathan Sandfort had some control issues here last year, but only was in 8 games.  Hayden Hurst is one to keep an eye upon as well as he makes his debut.  Hopefully more signings will lead to more people ending up here as well.

Either way, it looks a like a great day for the Pirates, both now and in the future.

Comparing Royals and Pirates Draft Thinking

Comparing the Royals and Pirates

I live in Kansas City Royal territory, so I am always flooded with Royals news.  I also find it interesting to compare the Pirates and Royals because they are both in a similar small market boat.  

This year's draft by the Royals should draw immediate comparisons between the KC front office and the Pirate front office.  

Take a look at what the Royals did this year in the draft.  This is a very different approach than the Pirates who took the number 5 and 10 prospects on MLB's top 100 with the 9 and 14th pick.  This was in part thanks to the Royals taking Hunter Dozier 8th.  

The thinking of the Kansas City front office was Dozier would be a cheap sign, which he was as he has already signed under slot by about a million bucks.  This is to help them sign their 34th pick Sean Manaea.  Manaea is a big talent who underperformed this year, so their is some risk in this pick.  If they don't sign him, they don't get compensation.  If they had drafted Manaea first, they would have been compensated if they failed to sign, and whether or not Dozier would have been there at 34 is a debatable point.  Of course if his underperformance is the norm and his summer league the aberration, then this pick is a complete disaster no matter what.

But look at the rest of the Royal draft.  Not a lot of high schoolers and not a lot of people that even had draft reports on MLB.com.  I counted 10 with reports and two more that had videos.  The Pirates this year had 13 with reports and 1 more with a video.  Only one of the Pirates first 10 round picks did not have either a report or video.  They also picked 5 High Schoolers in the first 10 rounds and no college seniors.  The Royals took 4 college seniors in the first 10 rounds and only two high schoolers.  The majority of the High Schoolers taken by the Royals are past round 25 where they are not going to sign.  They seem to be betting on signing Manaea because they do not have high school talent out of the top 10 rounds.  If Manaea does not take the deal where are they going to throw the extra money?  

The more interesting comparison is with the Pirates last year.  The Pirates last year used a pick to draft a tough to sign guy in Mark Appel.  They also tried to save some money in the first 10 rounds with picks like Crumlich, Wood, and even Barrett Barnes who was still about the talent level of the pick.  

But the Pirates seemed to have a back up plan.  They drafted high upside high schoolers Walker Buehler, Maxwell Moroff, and Hayden Hurst in the 14th, 16th, and 17th rounds.  And when Appel refused to sign they were able to pick up Moroff and Hurst.  AND they got to have the 9th pick this year, which turned out to be Austin Meadows.  

The problem with the Royals is not that they went and tried to sign the 13th overall prospect who is considered a hard sign.  The problem is that they don't seem to have a back up plan for it.  If they fail, they do not get a comp pick, and they do not seem to have high upside high schoolers to throw the extra money to in order to get them to sign.  Instead they pick the 46th overall talent who will have to move to third, and may have to move to second eventually.  They continually passed on talents that might have signed if you had an extra million or so laying around from the attempt to sign Manaea.  For example Ryan Boldt is committed to Nebraska, and he went undrafted until round 22 despite being the 39th best prospect.  Boldt could have been drafted in round 14-17 (as the Pirates did last year), and then on top of the max $100,000 they Royals could have added at least a 1 million, and judging from some of the names in their top 10 rounds, probably at least 1 million more.  Boldt might have gone for that.  Isn't it at least worth a try?  

It seems to be a different thinking about drafting than the Pirates, and one that makes me glad we have the front office that we have.  

I think we can all say, "I am glad we are not the Royals."

2013 Draft Round 1

Okay, so following a successful Pirates team is proving more stressful than I imagined.  I am not sure I am able to cheer on a team that is close to the playoffs, but might well miss them.

But today is a day of looking forward, and it turned out to be a much better day than I had hoped.

Almost all of the mock drafts had the Pirates taking high schooler Reese McGuire with the 9th pick and then getting usually Hunter Renfroe for the 14th or D.J. Peterson or Dominic Smith.  But, when the draft picks started falling into place the Pirates were given the opportunity to pick Austin Meadows, a high school 5 tool outfielder.  Almost all predictions had him going before the 9th pick.  So, the Pirates snatched him up as they had been rumored to want another good outfielder.

Meadows is young and will be a bit of a work in progress, so don't expect massive numbers in short season ball.  But he is highly athletic and has been highly successful so far.  We got a guy that everyone thought would be gone, and was almost universally rated higher than McGuire, so it is reason to be excited.

The best news is that then McGuire was still around at 14, so the Pirates took him then.  It seemed obvious the Pirates thought McGuire a top 10 talent, as all mock drafts had the Pirates taking the high school catcher.  His defense is apparently great and his bat will need the work, but not in the same way that Sanchez needed work.  Expect more from this kid.

With the Pirates clearly wanting McGuire and still getting him 5 picks later than they had planed and thus getting an even greater talent at 9, this was a highly successful Day 1 to the draft.  And there is one more bit of great news.  Mark Appel went #1 to the Astros.  He will not get the amount of money he could have if he had been willing to let the Astros draft him last year, but that is not the great news.  The great news is that many had thought the Astros would pass on Mark again and that would have meant he fell to the Cubs, who would have taken him.  Now Appel will pitch in the American League and never have to cross the Pirates, and especially not have to cross in division every year.  That too is good news.

More tomorrow on the next section of the draft.

Raising Expectations

The Pirates not only came through their important 10 game homestead with flying colors, but then took 3 of 4 from the hated Phils in Philly.  We have won 10 of the last 13 and are leading in the suspended game.  This is great news for the Pirates.

It is made even better by the fact that Andrew McCutchen is in a bit of an unnoticed slump.  McCutchen is hitting only .235 and has a lower walk rate right now than in years past.  Although he has a lower strike out rate as well, his BABIP is a measly .250.  This gives one reason to hope that Andrew will break out in a big way.  But the important thing is the Pirates are winning without him hitting.  Add in the fact that Neil Walker is not hitting that well either, and we see that the Pirates may have actually found an offense.

In years past Neil Walker going down ended the offense as people were able to pitch around McCutchen.  Now we have a lead off hitter in Marte who is playing great.  We have a platoon that appears to be working at first and in right.  We have Pedro who hits homers and nothing else.  We have a catcher who is a power threat and that is enough to give our decent starting pitching and our great bullpen wins.

Let's hope that the platoon continues to work as that still is the place that concerns me.  Better pitchers are on the way as Morton is looking good, and Lirano is stretching out.  Both are an improvement over Sanchez.