So now it is a bit different . . . McCutchen Trade

Okay.  Everything has changed from my last post.  Gerrit Cole’s trade was not bad when the team was still structured with McCutchen.  I thought they could still compete with the new third basemen in Moran and some reasonable expectations of improvement, along with the now better pen and the depth at starting pitcher. 

But without McCutchen, it looks worse.  McCutchen’s return was another pen piece and Bryan Reynolds a decent hitting, no power, outfield prospect.  Not exactly world beating, but outfield depth is a bit of an issue for the Pirate farm system.  Reynolds was #5 in the Giants system, but won’t be in the Pirates. 

Now everything has to break their way for them to make the playoffs including injuries to the other guys’ best players.  Marte has to hit well and with power, Bell has to hit more, Polanco has to live up to expectation, rookie pitchers need to win lots of games, and Moran has to be all we want and then some.  So, better to dump people now.  Harrison is asking to be traded, and if I could get an actual person back for him, I would do it.  Judging from the value of the other two guys a warm body would be a nice return for Harrison.  He was a nice piece in a lineup where he was not the main hitter.  He brought energy, a solid bat, and okay defense at second.  But without McCutchen, his value is less to the Pirates.  He is now a solid bat in a lineup that lacks a consistent threat and power.  The Pirates have a glut in the system of middle infield, so move him now so we can start sorting the Moroff, Newman, Kramer, Tucker situation out and get people at bats. 

I would have been okay with trading Cervelli this off season, but not now.  Ironically, I think his value to the Pirates increased.  With younger arms in the rotation and the pen, an experienced catcher is more valuable.  He is not really blocking any break out catching prospects, so keep him and let him work with the young staff plus mentor Elias Diaz as his back up. 

I suppose the opening day outfield will now be Marte in center with Polanco and Osuna at the corners with Fraiser doing his thing bouncing around.  If all goes well in the minors, we should see Meadows, but with his history he needs to show he belongs now.  Reynolds is there in case Meadows does not pan out. 

The other part of this trade is the return of international signing money.  The Pirates put this in the trade, they had better use it.  I heard they were scouting the top catching prospect, with the extra money and what they have not spent, they need to make a bigger signing.  That would put that player as sort of a return for McCutchen.  But just hoarding signing money is not really of use.  They got extra cash, time to use it. 

It is possible that some of these bullpen guys from these last two trades get turned around at the trade deadline.  Bullpen guys seem to have a bit of increased demand at that time.  That might help some of this look better, but I am not sure the Pirates are thinking that way. 

I do think the Pirates are still not very far off.  This is not a taking it down to the foundations kind of rebuild.  The Pirates still have some good prospects and real talent on the roster.  But, this year going to be hard to watch.

Filling holes is not wrong

Gerrit Cole is gone, and I will miss him.  It would have been nice to have stock piled sure thing prospects, but that apparently was not possible.  Even in all the rumors with the Astros and Yankees top prospects were always off limits.  So, one can assume this is as good as a Cole trade gets.  Obviously the trade will be decided on three factors.

1.       How well these major league ready players turn out to be this year and next.

2.       How well Cole pitches this year and next.

3.       How well our talent pool of pitchers turns out to be this year and next.

Overall, I am happier that the Pirates appear to be trying to make a playoff push this year.  I am still of the opinion they are not that far away.  I think there is good reason to expect more from Marte this year, not to mention growth from Josh Bell.  Add that to a renewed McCutchen, and the Pirates have a real chance to compete if the pitching holds.  But it was absolutely necessary to upgrade 3B and the pen, which this trade does.

Moran was the 9^th overall prospect in the Astros system, so he has acknowledged potential.  And even if he lacks the power, he will have a better average than Freese.  This will help the team.  Feliz is a solid strikeout reliever who has some walk issues.  He is not going to be counted on to be the closer, so he should have little problem finding real usage in the Pirates pen. 

Musgrove is the biggest question mark for me.  He has about the same amount of starts as appearances from the pen, and I think he is better off in the pen.  I hope they don’t just hand him a staring job as the Pirates have loads of starter talent that I think eclipses Musgrove such as Glasnow, Brault, and Kingham.  Freeing up Cole’s spot is better for one of them and using Musgrove where he has been more effective, in the pen. 

The deal also gives us one prospect, Martin, who does not really jump off the page, but does still look like he could play in the big leagues.  It is good to have a prospect in this package. 

The second component is Cole himself, who has been less than ace worthy in his last two years.  If he finds that dominance that we always thought he had and has shown glimpses of, then this trade is not enough.  If he just continues to pitch as he has, which will make him a good starter on the Astros, but not a great one, then perhaps this deal looks good in hindsight.  Cole has questions marks.  The bigger question is whether or not the Pirates have anyone who can answer the questions better than Cole did.

That is the third major part for me.  Brault, Glasnow, and Kingham could all take a step forward and be this year’s Chad Kuhl or Trevor Williams.  I am assuming Kingham probably starts the year in the minors, but there was only one spot really for Brault or Glasnow in Pittsburgh before the trade, now there maybe two. 

Look at this potential pitching combo.

Rotation: Taillon, Nova, Kuhl, Williams, Glasnow

Bullpen: Rivero, Kontos, Hudson, Feliz, Neverauskas(or Santana), Brault, and Musgrove

This is a pretty good looking pitching line up.  Strikeouts should flow freely.  If Glasnow can get it together, then this could be a playoff type pitching staff with real depth.  If Hudson continues to struggle, AAA will have the loser of the Neverauskas/Santana race ready to step in.  Clay Holmes would be available if a long reliever is needed.  As a ground ball guy, he could be a help, but is a bit like Musgrove.  And Kingham would be there if a starter went down or failed as would Brault and Musgrove.  Although in this set up Brault is the second lefty in the pen. 

Add to this a team that includes an upgraded 3B, probable improvement in Marte and Bell (and perhaps Polanco), and has kept McCutchen.  I think this is a team that could compete for the wild card, and perhaps the division title as the Cubs pitching currently stands as borderline ugly. 

If they do make the playoffs this year, the trade has to be seen as a success.  

Were we buyers or sellers? Trading deadline review

So the confusing trade deadline has come and gone.  Time to start dissecting. 

Melancon probably had to go.  And the Pirates got a decent return in my opinion.  Felipe Rivero throws hard, without control problems, is left handed, and has five years of control.  Add in a young A ball pitcher who also appears to have strike out potential with no real control problems, and it probably makes sense.  The Pirates did draft Taylor in 2012 so it is not the first time the Pirates have shown interest.  Call it a good trade. 

The Pirates got Ivan Nova for a player to be named later.  Nova is just a rental and probably won’t be a big name going back to the Yanks in return.  As long as that is true this is a good trade.  The Pirates need a starter and Nova fits the bill.  Not great but a reasonable trade. 

The Pirates returned Jon Niese and got Antonio Bastardo back.  Both guys are doing worse this year than last, but I have a ton more confidence in Bastardo than Niese, especially coming out of the pen.  This means horrible things for the Walker trade, but forgetting Walker this trade is great.  It is a good one for the Pirates who need late inning help not long inning hope. 

The Liriano, Ramirez, McGuire trade for Drew Hutchison is a baffler.  Liriano was awful this year.  I guess Hutchison would be better, but he has not exactly set the world on fire.  He is a great deal cheaper.  Harold Ramirez is a good talent, but admittedly blocked a great deal in Pittsburgh.  Many have him in the top 10 (I think he is just outside, but whatever).  Yet, he is still behind Polanco, Marte, and McCutchen.  And even when he is ranked in the top 10 prospects he is behind Meadows.  The Pirates also have Willy Garcia, who is not doing great this year, but I list him to show the Pirates have  quite a bit of depth in the outfield in the minors.  Remember also that the Pirates have tried Hansen, and Osuna in the outfield too.  I could live with this trade if that was all it did.  Somehow this includes Reese McGuire.  Now McGuire only hits about .250, but his defense is great.  The Pirates did re-sign Stewart and Cervelli, but this trade means they have a great deal of confidence in Elias Diaz.  Hutchinson is not worth McGuire too.  This is a bad trade for the Pirates. 

Now that said, I think the Pirates have given themselves a great improvement for next year.  The bullpen next year now has Watson, Hughes, Bastardo, and Rivero.  I think Caminero might be back and the Pirates have enough talent to fill the long man position without any trouble.  They have saved some money with the Liriano trade to go and get a decent name to fill in that extra hole to make a great bullpen.  McGuire was a not going to be on next year’s team so that hit will come later and neither was Ramirez.  They don’t have to go to arbitration with Hutchison, but can if they think it helps.  They have also opened a spot up for these young guns to go grab. 

I think the best part of the deal is that it should save people like Glasnow and Brault.  They would struggle a bit at the majors.  Now they can go back to Indy and develop as they need to do.  Glasnow can work on that change rather than try to help the Pirates win a pennant and be ready for next year.  Brault can too. 

The Pirates are not dead in the water for this year now either.  They have an improved pen with Rivero and Bastardo.  They have an improved rotation with Cole, Taillon, Nova, and Hutchison.  The fifth spot can be up for grabs, but I would prefer to see the returning  Chad Kuhl take the slot.  Although I suspect we see Vogelsong a bit.  Either way, it seems better without Liriano and with Nova.  Time will tell how bad the Liriano weirdness turns out to be for the Pirates, but the other trades look good to me.

Buyers or Sellers?

The reasons for being a buyer are pretty simple. 

#1 You have a shot at the playoffs.  The Pirates have been fairly injured all year and Cutch has been awful, yet the Pirates are only a couple of games out of the final playoff spot.  Adding the needed pieces (mostly pitching) ought to push you over the top.

#2 You have a deep farm system.  This is always an important consideration when looking to be a buyer.  Do you have the pieces to lose?  And right now the answer may actually be yes.  Do the Pirates really need Adam Frazier, Max Moroff, and Alen Hansen?  What about Chad Kuhl, Brault, Kingham, and Williams?  Not to mention Clay Holmes in AA.  Even the wave after that already includes Hinz and Keller.  And let us not forget that we have Kramer, Tucker, and Newman all bunched together and Hayes right behind occupying third further narrowing that group.  The farm system could survive a trade or two.

The reasons for being a seller (or at least not a buyer). 

#1 You have no real shot this year.  The Pirates have an easy schedule down the stretch, some head to head with the Cardinals, and have been pretty even so far with the Mets.  It is reasonable to assume that they can be jumped if the right trades are made.  And the Marlins are playing above their heads, the last wild card spot is a real possibility.  But, that gets you a one game playoff on the road against Kershaw.  Yikes.  If you win that you get the Cubs with the new improved bullpen.  I am not sure the Pirate are cut out to win a five game set against them.  If they did they would get either Bumgardner and the Giants or Strassborg and Harper with the Nats.  Both seem to have better rotations and star players playing like star players.  That is just to get to the World Series.  Not a likely scenario at this point.

#2 You are about to lose Mark Melancon for nothing.  The Pirates are not going to resign him, and he will probably be overpaid.  But the Pirates could trade him now and get something in return.  Maybe a prospect for the pen in a year or a guy who might compete for a 5^th rotation spot next year.  Maybe even a catcher to push Diaz.  He will be overvalued right now at the deadline.  This is an opportunity to get a little something to help next year. 

#3 There are too many needs to make the Pirates great again.  The Pirates need another arm in the pen to make a run.  While Watson and Hughes are regaining form, another solid late inning arm is necessary.  Four late inning guys and a ground ball guy ought to be good enough for a playoff push, but they need one more arm to get to that spot.  It doesn’t have to be a closer, but a good hard throwing strike out guy.  But what the Pirates really need is a starting pitcher.  Right now they have Cole and that is it.  Lirano is not going anywhere, but he needs to be pushed down in importance.  Let us assume for a moment that he is getting it together and Taillon is reliable into the post-season.  You don’t want to have to go with Glasnow and Kuhl or Locke and Niese as the back end for the playoffs.  And you don’t want any of them this year pitching in the playoffs.  So, assuming one of those four can hold down a fifth slot we need a guy to take the fourth slot to pitch in the playoffs.  It would actually be better if you can get a #2 or 3 guy to make the Pirates competitive.  The price for a Chris Archer or a Julio Teheran would be astronomical.  You are talking losing a Bell or Meadows plus someone like Brault plus something else (or two). 

#4 The market stinks.  We already mentioned the high priced names with control left like Teheran that will cost top 5 prospects and then some.  Even if the Pirates are just looking for a rental it will still cost a top tier prospect plus a lower minor leaguer, and the return will be bad.  That is just the market this year because there is no one.  None.  It is an ugly starting pitching market.  Seriously James Shields is the big name rental.  Oakland’s Rich Hill might be the best idea, but he just went on the DL.  And Rich Hill is not exactly a world beater that is going to change your team from pretender into contender. 

#5 Help will be here next year.  The Pirates, thanks to some bad injuries last year, are just in a weird year where their internal help is too far off.  Glasnow is not really ready.  Kingham went down.  Kuchno imploded, and it is just a stretch to bring up some bullpen arms.  Think about next year.  The starting rotation can be Cole, Lirano, Taillon, and now Kuhl.  All have experience and ready to go.  By mid June you could bring up Glasnow and Kingham or a Brault and have a good solid rotation.  Your bullpen can have Watson as the closer, Hughes, Locke (or not whatever), and a whole bunch of new guys.  You can sign a guy if you need it or bring back Schlegul.  You could have Durapau by mid season (who is dominating AA right now), and you could convert Frank Duncan to the pen to start the season.  Maybe even a September call up of Luis Heredia, who is destroying High A in the pen.  Add to that Josh Bell’s power bat, and the Pirates are a lot better next year than this year. 

All in all it is pretty clear I want to be a seller.  I think you have to get something for Melancon while you can, and frankly I might trade some others if I could.  I like Jaso and I think he has a place on next year’s team, but maybe now is the time to let Bell do what he can do and get something in return.  Maybe Matt Joyce is as good as it is going to get right now.  I don’t really shop those guys, but I listen if someone came a calling. 
That being said, I also would not be upset if the Pirates just ride it out.  Keep what you have and let Melancon walk at the end of the year.  That way you are not giving up, and you might slip into the playoffs anyway. 

I suspect that the Pirates will make a real low level deal for a bullpen arm.  Maybe a Jeremy Jeffress or a David Hernandez or Andrew Bailey, but nothing too much. 

Trade Deadline moves examined

It is time to examine how the Pirates did during the trading deadline. 

The Pirates came into the deadline with a load of prospects, and needs in the bullpen, first base, and a need for more power.  The late injury to Jordy Mercer also made a need for depth on that side of the infield as well.

 

Ultimately no matter what happens the rest of the way the Pirates did great because they kept all their prospects giving up a very small amount for all the return.  This is a win for a small market club. 

 

They quickly addressed the left side of the infield with Armaris Ramirez, which makes a feel good story, and it cost us a long shot bullpen candidate.  He has experience, a little power left, and can still play third.  You trust him much more than Brent Morrell or Pedro Florimon at the plate, so this is good.  Great move in fact because he can be a bench upgrade when Harrison and Mercer get back.

The long shot trade was Michael Morse for Jose Tabata.  Tabata has no place on the Pirates, has no more upside to explore, and is only a little cheaper than Morse.  Morse has more power than Tabata, can play first, which the Pirates need, but is declining rapidly.  In the end this is two teams switching expensive pieces that are failures.  Each piece fits the other team better and you hope the scenery change gives them a slight boost. 

The one that cost us the most is Joakim Soria.  Soria has closed, is still a late inning guy who can throw hard and get strikeouts.  Now this one cost us Jacoby Jones, who is loved by some.  I have always been a bit skeptical of Jones.  However, he has shown steady power.  He is playing short right now, but remember he was outfield once too.  This does give him some flexibility for the Tigers.  He strikes out a lot.  I think the emergence of Kang made Jones really pretty expendable.  Now we have a solid bat who can play third and short better than Jones.  While Jones is younger and might end up with more power, Kang gives you the ability to let him go and wait for Tucker at short or even some of the talent emerging on the AA roster right now.  You have to give up someone with potential and upside to get a gun like Soria.  This was pretty mild, and Soria really helps the bullpen.  In fact, I think this was the most important piece for the Pirates to get.  So, this is a good deal.

J.A. Happ was kind of a throw on at the last minute with Burnett going to the DL.  This cost us Adrian Sampson.  Now Sampson has a major league career ahead of him for sure.  He can be a fourth line starter, probably will be a fifth starter, and at worst is a bullpen guy.  I like Sampson, and I think the Pirates should have brought him up in September.  But trading him for renting Happ was needed.  Sampson was going to be hard pressed in a stacked Pirates future rotation of Cole, Taillon, Glasnow, Kingham, and the last spot for Locke, Crumpton,  or Angel Sanchez to name a few and we still have Morton under control for a while.  Is Happ better than Worley?  Probably a little.  Lord willing you don’t need Happ much.  Is Happ better than Sampson?  Not in the long run, but you don’t want your season in the hands of a AAA call up right now.  Happ is at least a known commodity.  Hard to criticize this deal with the Burnett injury, but hard to like it too.

 

The Pirates also got for cash Joe Blanton.  The same Joe Blanton who baffled them so bad in Kansas City for 3.1 out of the bullpen.  Blanton too has playoff experience and gives them a legit long man rather than Worley.  He is not going to tear it up, but is upgrading the bullpen.

Let us also not forget about the Travis Ishikawa waiver pick up.  It costs nothing but a little cash.  I like Ishikawa.  He too can play first or the outfield.  He has World Series experience and is a real professional hitter.  He knows how to work counts, use the whole field, and hit in situations.  This is a bench upgrade for nothing, and it makes the Pirates better. 

So the Pirates shored up the left side of the infield and seriously upgraded their bullpen for basically one future strike out prone major leaguer.  They also got a little extra power and a good pinch hitter losing only the pointless Jose Tabata and increasing the payroll a bit.  They also picked up a stop gap fifth starter for a future fifth starter, but if Brunett is able to come back this year and Kingham and Crumpton come back next year it won’t hurt long term.  They also sent Worley to the minors for a slightly better, but more experienced and consistent long man.  Again probably taking on some extra payroll. 

They did not really make 1B any better, but they did what they could and did not lose much over it.  This is a big win for the Trade deadline.  I love it. 

Alen Hanson vs. Dilson Herrera

Well, it is time to face the facts.  Dilson Herrera is better than Alen Hanson and it may not even be close.  Dilson Herrera has made the majors and is now going to be facing Pirate pitching. 

I always thought Herrera was better than Hanson.  When the trade was Hanson was on a higher minor league level and still playing short.  Now Herrera has past Hanson, although one could argue that the Mets need may have played a role and Hanson is not needed right now in Pittsburgh.  However, Herrera was hitting .370 in AAA and Hanson's OBP is not that high (.318).  Hanson has two errors already this year and there is little reason to think moving to second is going to make his defense acceptable.

The problem with Hanson has never been his ability.  I do think Herrera was underrated in that area ever since he put together a massive hitting streak in the DSL, but Hanson can hit.  The problem is mental and that is always worse than someone who has a more physical hole in his game.  I don't think Herrera has ever been sat down by his team.  Hanson has it happen quite a bit.  His error in the field were not a player trying to play short stop that did not have the tools, the errors were on the routine plays.  Baseball is mostly routine plays.  Baseball is doing the ordinary stuff really well.  Hanson seems prone to throwing fits, not running out ground balls, and not having his head in the game.

We lost that trade with the Mets.  Vic Black and Herrera are going to be key pieces in the Mets trip to the playoffs this year.  We got what we needed in the short term, but this is why I never like trading for short term rental players.

Looks like the Pirates just lost in 10.  Ugh.   

Winning the Right Way

The Pirates appear to be in line to make the playoffs after tonight's 1-0 win over the Braves.  After how bad the Pirates were early this season and their season long inability to sweep teams, I never thought they were going to make the playoffs.  Yet, the Pirates are going to do it.  And they did it without trading for anyone. 

The Tigers traded big as did the A's.  The Angels did it, and the traditional way of thinking is that you have to upgrade your team to make the stretch run.  The Pirates have upgraded without trades, but it is still an upgrade.  Well their was the one early season trade to rid them of Grilli, but that was arguably not a good trade.

The Pirates relied on their farm system to upgrade them rather than deplete the farm system for rental players as the Royals did last year.  The knew that Gregory Polanco was coming, but after an initial help, he really fell off the radar and was later demoted.  But his help was there for an important stretch.  They trusted Jeff Locke and Brandon Crumpton could get the job done in the rotation and they did just fine.  And let us not overlook the trade right before the season to acquire Vance Worley for cash.  Worley sat in AAA for the year and came ready to pitch, and he has done so. 

The masterful use of the waiver wire is what the Pirates excelled at this year.  When the Pirates had trouble with Alvarez, they were able to use the wire to grab Brent Morel.  Now that does not sound like much, but Morel could defend 3B and plugged the emergency back up role just fine while Harrison took over the hot corner.  When they needed to replace Barmes as the emergency back up short stop, they did that over the wire too.  No panic, just use the waiver wire to get what you need.  No need to trade for a SS or a 3B, just waiver wire.  Even better appears to be the use of the wire to pick up LaFrombose, a lefty specialist.  Now this was done near the end of the year, but could pay dividends in the playoffs.  He will be available to add to the team if extra left handers are needed. 

Now the real gem is of course Holdzkom.  Holdzkom was found by the scouts in independent ball, and is now a legitimate late innings pitcher.  Take tonight for example.  He pitched the 8th in a 1 run game during the stretch run for the playoffs.  There is little doubt that Holdzkom becomes the the 7th inning man for the playoffs.  And he will be back for the next year strengthening the bullpen, which was a clear weakness early in the season.  Holdzkom will simply take Stolmy Pimentel's place who the Pirates successfully hid all year on the roster.  Not often are playoff contenders able to hid guys who have no options left on the roster all year if they are not actually contributors.  

The Pirates nice stretch by the Pirates is proof that the trade deadline is a bit overrated.  Teams often ought to trust their roster and trust their farm system. 

If anything the contrast between the A's and the Pirates ought to be stark.  One made a blockbuster trade that moved a starting player and some minor leaguers for a front line starting pitcher for the rest of the season, and the Pirates absorbed criticism and stood pat.  The A's are limping down the stretch and have gone from the best team in the majors before the all star break to barely making the playoffs.  The Pirates went from third in their division and behind several teams to in the playoffs and challenging for the top wild card spot, and while they are going to come up a little short on the NL central title, they gave it a run.

This was an impressive display from the Pirates this year, especially their front office.   

Who to trade?

It is starting to look more and more like the Pirates are going to be buyers at the trading deadline rather than sellers.  I still think the playoffs is a long shot, and it would be better to be sellers, but it would not sit well with most of the fan base.

So the question becomes what prospects do we have to watch go away for this long shot hope?

I would start off by saying that Glasnow, Kingham, Meadows, McGuire, and Bell should all be off the table.  Kingham is ready for primetime, and could be a nice addition to the 2015 rotation, and the other guys are the foundation of the Pirates dynasty.  Taillon should be off the table too, but with his injury it is unlikely anyone would want to trade for him.

This means I would be willing to part with anyone else given the right return.  I would actually be ecstatic if we got a good player in return for Alen Hanson, but I have always been low him, much lower than most.  I would have done anything to keep Dilson Herrera last year and trade Hanson, but it is too late now.  Herrera hit over .300 in High A this year and has recently received his promotion to AA where he is hitting a cool .340.  Herrera may not have been able to stay at short, but neither can Hanson.  The fact that Herrera went in a trade makes me think that some of the other teams do not value Hanson as highly either.

Luis Heredia is someone who I would like to keep, but if he brings the right return, then he goes.   I still really like his potential remembering that he is not yet 20, but you can't just trade away people you don't think are going to be any good.  And so perhaps now is also the time to offer up Adrian Sampson.  He is having a break out season, and might bring back some interest.  A lot of our other young interesting pitchers are hurt (like Clay Holmes and Duke Welker), so not many other names pop out as good trade bait.  That is unless you count Casey Sadler and Brandon Crumpton.  Crumpton specifically has shown he can do this at the major league level, and it would stink to lose him, but he should not be off limits.  Maybe he brings back a piece.

I am not sure who would be a good trade piece as a hitter.  Elias Diaz, AA catcher, could be a possibility.  Maybe Mel Rojas too.  Both guys would probably need to be added to the 40 man this year, and trading them now might free up the crunch.  Gift Ngope has some potential with the bat, maybe he gets put in a deal.  Barrett Barnes is just coming back off injury, but he could be a young prospect worth shopping around.  The Pirates are fairly loaded in the outfield anyway.  Keon Broxton probably won't bring much, but maybe he could be packaged to bring back something.

If you could package Broxton, Sadler, and Hanson it might bring back a piece worth having.  But overall, I hope the Pirates do not go crazy.  The odds are long at this point, and the Pirates have not had great success in the trade deadline deal.  It is usually a bad deal for the buyers.  I would prefer staying the course and letting next year take its course.  I just think the Pirates are low in too many places (SS, 1B, starting pitching) for deadline deals to make a difference.

A Dissenting View on the Trades

So, I have been so nervous that I can barely think much less write blogs.

However, the trading deadline and the trades that have taken place afterward have me a little upset.  Now, I am not all that bothered by either trade in isolation, but I worry about a front office view of relievers that is not realistic when you combine the two trades.

I understand why Byrd and Buck were acquired.  We needed another outfield even with a healthy Marte.  An upgrade of the backup catcher is not bad either.  But I am a big fan of Dilsen Herrera, and have a higher view of him than I do Alan Hansen, whose defense is just awful, and I think Herrera has power potential.  But hey, I guess you give up some stuff sometimes.  I really like Victor Black too.  I had them both in the top 10 prospects.  Black is a hard throwing possible closer.  He along with Welker both showed they could pitch at the major league level and both have future closer possibilities.

Now, Morneau is old, but has playoff experience and is probably an upgrade over Jones.  And I don't mind handing over Alex Presley because in the end Presley does not have a place in Pittsburgh.  With the emergence of Lambo, the off season addition of Jerry Sands, and the arrival next year of Polanco, there really is no place left for Alex at all.  And I can understand that cash or a PTBNL is required to finish it up.  But who?  It should have been a nobody.  Instead, it is now rumored to be Duke Welker.  This makes the deal unacceptable.

First, four future pieces when the Pirates are going to make the playoffs anyway is suspect since the return is all rentals.  Minor complaint.

Second, The Pirates just traded away the best two relievers in the organization.  The two guys who could be future closers will now be future late inning guys with other teams.  I worry that this represents an organizational mindset that relievers really can be found anywhere.  I am not sure that is realistic.  Yes, the Pirates have had some great success with Hanrahan, Grilli, Melanchon, and even back further with DJ Carrasco.  But let us not forget the whiffs with the likes of Chad Qualls.

The truly great relievers are usually homegrown and stay with a team for a long time.  See the now retiring Marino Rivera or Lee Smith.  The traveling closer is a hit and miss thing.  Ask the Red Sox about Hanrahan or the Nationals.  We have had some great success, but it is pretty arrogant to think we can always just find a reclamation project and make it work.  Eventually the percentages will swing back against us.  A homegrown closer from your own minor league system is not a bad thing and frankly a cheaper option.  Trading both Welker and Black is a big mistake.  Who is the best reliever left in the system now?  Tyler Waldron?

I get trading one of them.  We needed the Byrd and Buck trade.  But surely there was another way to complete the Morneau trade.  Next year Welker or Black could have stepped in to learn under Grilli and then stepped into the closer role after Grilli is done.  I hope that this dumping of our great relievers does not come back to haunt us in a few years.  I want long term success not just a division title this year.  

Trade deadline deal

A lot happened in the week, I was gone. The Pirates split a 4 game set with Atlanta and lost game 1 (and now game 2) with the Phils. We did get cheated by the Umps that cost us a game. We really need to end this on an up note with a big win tomorrow.

To that end, Derrick Lee is now a Pittsburgh Pirate. We traded away Aaron Baker to get him. That is a great deal. Baker was probably below Matt Hague coming into the season. Hague has had a great year and Baker only so-so. He has power, and was hot a couple of times, but still strikes out a lot. Matt Curry clearly jumped him in Curry's first full season. Not just on the prospect list, but actually jumped over the High A league where he was to play AA ball. Curry has done well there too, so that pushes Baker to 3rd on the prospect list. The Pirates 3rd round choice of Alex Dickerson, who is learning first base in State College, drops Baker to 4th on the prospect list. One assumes Dickerson will improve on the defense. This means the Pirates traded away the 4th best first basemen for an upgrade right now at the major league level. I will take it.

Add in the fact that everyone thinks Alvarez will end up at first, and the fact that Justin Howard hits for nice average behind Baker, and really this is a great deal because the Pirates are not giving up anything.

As for the debate about whether Derrick Lee at this point in his career is better than Overbay, I think he is. Overbay has not hit well, and is lacking power. Even if Lee only hits for the same average, he has a bigger power threat than Overbay. The defense is probably the same, as Overbay has not been as good as year's past. Plus, just the morale boast of the Pirates front office trading to get pieces is important. That should be a shot in the arm for the whole team.

Trade Deadline rating

Bucs Dugout has a nice round up of the trading deadline deals. But I want to add a few thoughts anyway.

First, I think Neal Huntington is a genius. He pulled off a few trades that I thought were impossible. He got some talent (not a lot), but opened up room for next year. He also addressed a real need that Pirates had now at catcher.

Now, let me list the trades in the order from worst to first in my opinion.

3. Octavio Dotel (“Doh”tel) was traded to the Diamondbacks for James McDonald, a starting pitcher, and Andrew Lambo, an outfield. McDonald was thought of highly at one point, but even the Pirates have him starting out in the bullpen. The Pirates have a poor starting rotation, and he can’t crack it? That make me worry. Lambo is a solid prospect. He looks like he could take Gorkys Hernadez’s place as a possible outfielder of the future. But, I am not such a big fan of Lambo on the principle of him getting caught using steroids. What is the clean Lambo going to look like? I don’t know. Add in the fact that Dotel is the best player we traded away, and you have the worst trade. It is a “C”, but nothing more.

2. Javier Lopez to the Giants for Joe Martinez, a starting pitcher and John Bowker, an outfielder. This is a solid deal. Lopez has been a great lefty for us this year. And now he brings in two prospects. Martinez is so-so. Right now it is a good thing to load up on AAA pitching and see what we need. Martinez fits that bill. But who I really like is Bowker. Bowker was the PCL player of the year last year. I will take that in a heart beat. He has not really been given a shot at the majors, and I think he ought to get a call up in September. I like this guy. Probably worth Lopez by himself. This deal is a B.

1. D.J. Carrasco, Bobby Crosby, and Ryan Church for Chris Snyder, a catcher, Pedro Ciriaco, a shortstop, and 3 million bucks. This deal shows how great Neal really is. He dumped Church. He just successfully traded away a guy hitting under .200 and a salary of a free agent. He added to that a veteran short stop who hits .230 and a reliever having a great year, especially against righties but will play the market this off season. How he traded Church and Crosby is beyond me. This is as amazing as trading away Bixler. A once crowded outfield now looks better. A spot is opened for Argentis Diaz and the Pirates get money. But even more than that the Pirates get a catcher who has major league experience and can throw out runners. Doumit is just horrible at defense, and Jarmillo cannot throw anyone out either. Kratz has shown the ability to do that, but Snyder will cement the defensive part of this. Snyder is a better hitter than he is showing this year, but he is not great. This is just filling in until Sanchez reaches the majors. Still, Snyder has a year of control after this year as well, so it is not a renting situation. This really frees the Pirates up to try and deal Doumit. Hopefully Jarmillo will head back to AAA. This was an amazing dump of players for the Pirates. And it showed that Neal is not going to let the a major league team suffer like he did last year when he traded away all the left handed pitching in the pen. A giant hole exists in the major league catcher slot. The hole is now at least patched over with something. Add in a AAA shortstop in Pedro Ciriaco, another position where the Pirates have a hole, and I think the trade is great. I give this an A-.

Trade Deadline Expectations

The Pirates are always active at the trade deadline, and despite the GM's comments this year will probably not be any different. First let us look at why.

Pedro Alvarez is ready to play. Yet, there is no room for him on the 25 man roster. The Pirates (for some unknown reason) want Charlie Morton in the majors and starting. The Pirates also need to get Pearce back on the 25 man roster, again no place for him.

Second, the options to clear room. The Pirates ideally would love to get rid of the extra outfielders they now have. Tabata, Jones, and McCutchen are their starters. They have three back ups: Milledge, Young, and Church. Young is the one who is playing the best and is very young, althoug hI think that many would say Milledge has the highest upside. Church is the best defender of the group. One would think Church would be the person the Pirates are marketing, and they may indeed take offers for Milledge. They are both more proven than Young. Buster Onley thinks that the number of quality outfielders available this year is low. If DeJesus is not traded by the Royals, then the market is even worse. So, the Pirates may be able to get rid of one of these guys. Preferably two, but I doubt that would happen. Church would not cause any eyebrows to raise. He was never a long term part of this team. Milledge would cause some to complain about last year's trade to get him, and Young has shown himself to be good and the Pirates have gone through a lot of pains to keep him. But in the end I think Young is more marketable than Milledge. If the Pirates can trade two of them, then their problems go away. Alvarez has room as does Pearce. Morton can be found by just getting rid of one of the relievers like Carrasco or even Karstens.

However, I am not sure that two outfielders can be moved especially with them playing so pathetic. So, I think Zack Duke is still likely to be traded by the end of the year. Duke would be a solid left handed starter that could fill out the back end of a rotation. The problem is that I think a lot of pitchers are going to be on a the market so the Pirates are going to have to accept a lot less than Duke is probably worth. Some rumors have not only Roy Oswalt, Cliff Lee, and Fausto Carmona on the market, but the entire Padres pitching staff. This will make a Zack Duke deal tough to accomplish.

Whatever happens, it needs to start happening soon because the Pirates need Alvarez now.

Bixler traded

Brian Bixler was traded to the Cleveland Indians. He was moved to make room on the 40-man for newly signed Donnelly. In return for Bixler the Pirates get a 22 year old infielder, Jesus Brito, who played in Rookie and Single A last year with a .350 and higher average.

Bixler was getting better. He hit .227 in the majors this year and his defense showed that it was major league calibur. Both vast improvements over earlier stretches in the majors. But Bixler was 27 and had no hope of making the team. This might give him a path to actually play this year, so I hope it works out for him. But this is nothing but good news. There is no downside to this trade, and if Brito pans out to be even a back up this is a great move.

Littlefield's Trades

It is time to continue the examination of the Dave Littlefield era by looking at his trading record. This seems perfect after the recent Chavez for Iwamura deal made by the new management.

In short, this was what killed the Pirates. His inability to draft real talent destroyed the Pirates future, but his trades killed their present. He also failed to add in more stock to the Pirate farm system with his trades, which is just unforgivable. Littlefield had the benefit of pretending to help the team in Pittsburgh, so at least he was fairly up front about not stock piling players for the future, but really, he just saved lots of money and made Pittsburgh look bad.

The worst trade made is easily the Armaris Ramirez deal. That deal the power hitting third base man along with crafty centerfielder Kenny Lofton, who was having a good year, were traded to the Cubs for some money, Jose Hernandez (who was already old as dirt), Matt Burback the pitcher who was immediately dropped and lost on waivers, and Bobby Hill, who ineptly played second base for a year. This disastrous trade was nothing more than a joke. An attempt to dump money, but not even a good attempt to get anything in return. Hill played at second only because he was traded for and not because he deserved it further ruining the Pirates. This is doubly insulting because this was a division foe. More should be extorted from division rivals.

Not far behind this embarrassing deal is the trading away of Jason Schmidt. Schmidt proved to be a great pitcher with the Giants and he was good with the Pirates. He regularly won double digit games and usually had a winning record. For this young talent (and John Vander Wal) the Pirates received Ryan Vogelsong and Armondo Rios. Vogelsong did take up space in the bullpen, but was never anything approaching good. Rios pitched the next season for the Pirates in the pen before being released. His career was soon over. Schmidt of course went on to great things.

Another fan favorite sent packing by Littlefield for nothing was Jason Kendall. Jason did bring in two guys, both old and not worth much. Mark Redman and Arthur Rhodes. Redman started but was never really good, and was way past his prime. Rhodes never really even made his presence felt with the Pirates. Both were over the hill. And while Kendall himself was no spring chicken, he could have brought something better than this.

Sean Casey needs to be mentioned in the group of the worst trades made by Littlefield as well. Casey was a native and thus extremely popular. He was a big name free agent signing and was producing. He hit a big .296 for the Pirates when Littlefield pulled the trigged and traded him to Detroit. Detroit gave in return Brian Rogers, who with his two partial years of appearing out of the Pirate bullpen just came in under an ERA of 10. When the Pirates released him, he re-signed with Detroit.

Those are just the trades of massively popular players. This does not even cover the horrible deals for lesser players like Raja Davis for Matt Morris, who had to retire he was so bad or Chris Young, a pitching prospect, for Matt Herges, relief pitcher who was traded for in December and then released by Spring Training. Herges has since pitched in the majors for the Rockies and Indians. You just can’t trade people away for nothing. You have to get prospects. Littlefield failed in that.

Even the trades that it is hard to blame Littlefield for are really failures. Mike Gonzales, Pirate closer and All-Star, was traded for Adam LaRoche and a prospect. The prospect bombed as did LaRoche. Gonzales is consistent still, but injury prone. On paper that looked good, so in fairness one cannot be upset. Also the Brian Giles for Jason Bay and Oliver Perez actually turned out good for both teams. Giles helped the Padres make a run and Bay was popular and successful in Pittsburgh and Perez was okay. However, in that deal Littlefield wanted Xavier Nady rather than Bay. Showing that Littlefield was not thinking about the future, and the deal would have been a bust with Nady.

Littlefield does deserve credit for bringing Freddy Sanchez for Jeff Suppan. That deal was a clear win from the very beginning for the Pirates.

In the end, Littlefield further destroyed the Pirates in three ways. One, he did not fill the system with talent from other ball clubs. He traded his top talent and got no talent in return. He basically helped other teams clear dead weight off of their 40 man rosters. Add this to the inability to make good drafts and it is a recipe for a long term slide with no easy fixes. Two, he killed any hopes of immediate success (ironically in the name of immediate success) by getting rid of young talent like Ramirez, Schmidt and others. This destroyed the teams hope of building around anyone in particular. Three, he probably hurt ticket sales by trading popular players for nothing. No hope was given to the Pirate faithful despite losing players like Ramirez. No hope was provided when they traded away Jason Schmidt, consistent 10 game winner. No hope was provided when they traded away Sean Casey, the local boy. The fans had no choice but to see this moves for what they were: dumping salary and sheer incompetence.

Second base hole is now plugged

The Pirates have done it again and pulled off a miracle trade. Well, at the very least this should silence the critics that think that Pirates are never playing for this year.

Akinori Iwamura, a second baseman for the Tampa Rays, was acquired for Jesse Chavez, the right handed bullpen guy. While Iwamura is now the highest paid Pirate and Chavez would be under the Pirates control for a longer time, the trade is great. Chavez is a slightly above average middle relief guy. He was not a closer, and did not appear to be able to handle set up work. The Pirates have lots of guys who can do that. Even if it means a slight drop off in the bullpen the gaping hole at Secondbase was more pressing. Iwamura fills that hole. His careers .281 batting average is 20 points higher than Dwelven Young, who was also not a natural second baseman.

Interestingly Huntington said that this returned Dwelven to a bench role. That I guess rules out Young returning to the outfield where a corner position is still open if the move Jones to first base. This trade also gives the Pirates a few more trading options. One would think with Young on the roster along with Iwamura that Andy LaRoche’s possible move to second base is no more. That means by mid-season he will be a trading piece. Or Neil Walker could be a trading piece. Also it makes Brandon Moss a possible trade option as Young is a natural outfielder. The bench spot Young occupies just might be Moss’s 4th outfielder spot.

No matter how you look at this trade, the Pirates are fixing problems with their major league roster. They have already addressed the lefty in the pen, and now the hole at second not to mention upgraded a weak offense. And we have not even gotten to the winter meetings.