The Post Gazette has an article giving 10 ways to make the Pirates better in 2010. I have a fundamental disagreement with the writer, Dejan Kovacevic. I believe Dejan’s view is stuck in a previous era of baseball.
First, let me say what I agree with. I agree with 8 through 2. There is nothing to complain about with those points. They are good and with the exception of promoting Alvarez and Lincoln, not controversial. I agree with the sentiment of number 9, but not his thinking. The Pirates have to stick with Jones, and by all accounts they are going to do just that. Yet, I think he should believe the denials of the Pirates about the reasoning for their constant moving around of Jones from 1B to OF. They may have indeed wanted to see more of Moss and Pierce. Those guys will be competing next year for jobs. Jones will not. But also the platooning also gave the Pirates the best chance to win day in and day out. Moss hit about .240 against mostly righties. Can you imagine how bad he would have been if he had to face lefties? Pierce hit about .210. It would have been worse if he had been in there against lefties. It really was the best for the Pirates this year. Sad, I know, but probably true.
What I really disagree with is point number 1 and 10 which are linked. Focus on Pittsburgh and spend. This is not how great teams are built. It used to be. You went out and paid a handsome price and you were set as a contender for years. Not anymore. Let us just look at history to prove my point.
Let us just start with 1996. The Yankees ascension to dominance. Their first championship did include a lot of journeymen, but it was based upon Jeter and Williams along with Andy Pettitte and Mariano Rivera. All were in house Yankees. Because it was so Free Agent built they did not return in 1997. That was the year the Florida Marlins bought the World Series with their Free Agents including Bonilla. The Marlins disbanded and that was that for them. It used to be Free Agents could get you a title, but something changed.
1998 saw the Yankees return to the top by adding Jorge Posada from their own organization. Hideki Irabu did help the pitching and should be considered an in house product since it is not really the same thing as Free Agency or trading. It was in 1999 that they added Roger Clemens. They won again, but their overall record plunged 16 games. In 2000 they bolstered by Free Agents again adding David Justice and Deany Neagle, and they won again. Their record also dropped another 11 games. In 2001 they added Mike Mussian, a major Free Agent. Their record did increase by 8 games, but they also added Alfonso Soriano from their own minor league system. They lost to the Arizona Diamondbacks who were led by two great pitchers neither of whom originated in Arizona. So 2001 saw the Diamondbacks pay for a title, but the epic collapse of that team shows that such victories are of a short duration. The Yankees continued to add free agents and they continued to fail. Jason Giambi and A-Rod are prime examples.
2002 had the Angles win led by almost all home grown guys. Troy Glaus, Darin Erstad, and Benjy Molina were all Angle prospects. 2003 was the Flordia Marlins that did get Free Agent Ivan Rodreguiz and much credit has been given to this because he did play well in the playoffs. But that Marlin team was homegrown. Luis Castillo, Juan Pierre, Brad Penny, Dontrelle Willis, and Josh Beckett were home grown Marlins. Derrick Lee and Mike Lowell had each played less than 50 games with another team when they were aquired by the Marlins in various trades. Those trades for minor leaguers that Dejan seems to hate so much.
The Boston Red Sox of 2004 were powered by steroids. But also led by Jason Varitek and Nomar Garciparra who were homegrown (until Nomar was traded). They Ortiz who was probably the real power of the team was acquired in a team building trade that Dejan detests from Minnesota. Add in a few more homegrown guys like Youkilis, Papelbon, and Dice-K and the Red Sox win again in 07. The White Sox broke the curse next with pitching including Buehrle, Garland, and Contreras – all homegrown. As were Joe Crede and Juan Uribe. The next year they were favored to repeat because they went out and signed a big name Free Agent in Jim Thome. They finished third in their own division. 2006 saw the culmination of the St. Louis Cardinals rebuilding efforts which centered on Albert Pujols. The Cardinals had ridden that homegrown horse as well as Jason Marquis and Matt Morris to a World Series loss in 04. They had lost in the NLCS after adding homegrown Yadlir Molina to the mix. Anthony Reyes and Adam Wainwright helped push the Cardinals over the top. The Philies won last year with homegrown guys like Cole Hamels, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, and Jimmie Rollins. They signed big name free agents in the off season and traded for Cliff Lee mid season and it looks bad for them right now.
The point is this: you must build an organization before you can win the World Series.
The Pirates cannot afford to neglect their minor league system as it is still in bad shape. It is no longer humiliating, but that is no reason to abandon the effort now. The Pirates have great pitching prospects, but outside of Alvarez and Tabata there are no bats on the horizon. You have to go down to Single A to get hitting prospects. That is a bad thing. Long term success is the goal, not a one time trip and then a complete collapse. The Pirates did it in the 90s with a solid minor league system. That is the way back to the top.
Thursday, October 8, 2009
Wednesday, October 7, 2009
Top 25 Prospects
A wonderful post by Charlie at Bucs Dugout ranking the top prospects in the Pirates system. It has inspired me to do the same. I will have some disagreement with Charlie’s rankings. One difference will be I will not rank players draft, but who have yet to play in the Pirate system. Zach Von Rosenburg’s one inning is not enough to get him ranked either. I will also avoid ranking those in the Foreign Rookie Leagues. Although it is worth mentioning Jonathan Barrios was invited to the Develomental League by the Pirates. I suppose that might make him the best prospect of the foreign rookie leagues.
1. Pedro Alvarez (3B). There is really no debate here. Alvarez had a wonderful first year by any standards. He got better as he moved up in competition. His OPS in AA was over 1. That is pretty good. He has continued to do well for Team USA showing great power. He needs to work on his glove and continued improvement in plate discipline.
2. Jose Tabata (OF). He is improving every year. He slumped at the end of this year, but he still pulled a GPA (Gross Production Average) of .262 (the scale is similar to that of regular .AVG). Not great, but not a disaster.
3. Brad Lincoln (P). Lincoln had a great year and a year without injury, which might be more important. A 1.196 WHIP for the year while getting over 7 strikeouts per 9 innings. Waling under 1 per 9 innings and giving up .7 homeruns every 9 innings. That is good stuff. I think it might be time to see what Brad does in the majors.
4. Rudy Owens (P). This guy had a year that is hard to believe. Owens had a WHIP of .944 for the year. That is amazing. He averaged 8.2 strikeouts per 9 innings and had a Strikeout to walk ratio of 6.65. He also performed well in the playoffs.
5. Chase D’Arnaud (SS). He had a .292 GPA and did not see a drop off when going up a level in the minors. His defense needs some more work, but he showed great promise this year even adding some power as the year went on.
6. Tim Alderson (P). There is something about Tim Alderson. It is hard to explain. His WHIP is 1.282 which is pretty good, but he does not strike out a lot of guys. Yet, he wins games. He wins games. You would like to see him give up less hits, but he wins. He wins at every level. He has three minor league season under his belt spaning from Rookie ball to AA. He has only lost 7 games in three years. You have to like that.
7. Starling Marte (OF). Marte is still raw, but the Pirates seem to really like this kid. He seemed to handle the promotions well. The Pirates have a general rule not to promote anyone more than once a season, but Marte was promoted twice. His .274 GPA is good for a first year kid and a .802 OPS is also good. I list him so high because he is only 20.
8. Robbie Grossman (OF). Grossman slumped in the second half of the year, and only finished with a GPA of .257. Add to this his 164 strikeouts and one might be worried, but that is to be expected from a 19 year old as is the second half slump. His fielding percentage is excellent, and he stole 35 bases not to mention his On Base Percentage of .373. He is a good looking prospect with some places to work. But the upside is there.
9. Daniel McCutchen (P). McCutchen is another guy who does not wow you with his stats, but competes game in and game out. He won 13 games for Indianapolis, and that in itself is saying something. His WHIP is 1.220, but he does not strike out enough batters. Still he pitched rather well in his short stint with the majors, and I am interested to see what that does for his confidence.
10. Tony Sanchez (C). Sanchez could be a major steal. His .318 GPA is outstanding. A .949 OPS is great for a catcher. All of that and his defense is his real strength. Still he did struggle a bit when he moved up to Lychburg (High A) at the end of the season, but 10 At-Bats is hardly a good sample. This 21 year old is a prize in the system. I might have him a little low, but one year should not cause us to go over the moon. Yet.
11. Brett Lorin (P). I think that this guy could have the goods to make the Jack Wilson deal worth it all by himself. He had a 1.049 WHIP for the year. That is great. A 2.20 ERA is also impressive. He gives up too many walks, but he is still young. We will see how he does as he moves up in competition, but I like him right now.
12. Jordy Mercer (SS). It is far too early to give up on Jordy Mercer. He did have a less than stellar year with a .713 OPS, but he was put at High A in his first year of professional baseball. That is an adjustment from college. His 10 homeruns and 83 RBIs give reason to hope that good things are still to come from this middle infielder.
13. Brooks Pounders (P). It is still early on this one too. He needs to watch his walks, but that is to be expected from a 18 year old. What is impressive is only one homerun over 23.2 innings and 99 batters. In a draft class full of great pitching he looks good.
14. Aaron Pribonic (P). He is still a bit wild, but a 1.115 WHIP is good. He did not give up many long balls either, which is encouraging. About .4 every 9 innings. He is 22 so he needs to continue to be good as he moves up, but I think he earned a spot on Lynchburg for this upcoming year. He is one to watch. He came over in the Jack Wilson deal.
15. Zachary Foster (P). I know that this one might be a stretch, but Foster had a 1.000 WHIP. That is good. But since he is not a starter nor is he being used as one than other criteria should be used. He allowed one homerun in 29 innings which is what you want in the bullpen. He struck out almost a person an inning, and walked a little over half that many. He only allowed four earned runs and five total. He did convert one save, which I think was his only opportunity. That is the beginning of a good bullpen resume.
16. Justin Wilson (P). Another draft pick put right into High A baseball at Lynchburg. He struggled greatly out of the gate just like Jordy Mercer. Yet, he finished well, and thus, I think Wilson will be fine. His over all line with a 1.491 WHIP is not that good, but the fact he got better as the year went on is a great sign.
17. Trent Stevenson (P). Only 15 innings, so this is another stretch. Still a .867 WHIP in your first 15 innings of professional baseball is nothing to sneeze at.
18. Victor Black (P). Black only pitched 31 innings, but he struck out 33. It is a little early to rank him too high with 1.309 WHIP. Still a lot of hope here.
19. Jeffrey Locke (P). This might be another stretch, but he a quality that is seldom seen. This guy gives up more hits than he has innings pitched. That is awful, but only 5 of those 145 hits were homeruns. A good sign. With that many hits a 4.50 ERA is lower than one would expect. He strikes out a lot of hitters which makes you think if he can learn to command the pitches and fool hitters with them, he might be great.
20. Quinton Miller (P). Miller was another player who improved over the year. His walks are way too high, but that is one thing that pitchers generally improve upon as they work. His are high enough that keeping an eye on the walks might be a good way to gauge his progress. Still this is a 19 year old arm, and it looks loaded with potential.
21. Brian Bixler (IF). This one will probably make some people mad, but Brian Bixler improved this year. A .264 GPA is not all that impressive, and his 26 years of age is high. He will never be the Short Stop of the future for the Pirates, but he can still be a bench player. He played not only short this year, but Secondbase as well as some Centerfield. Learning those positions makes him more valuable. He also was better than years past while playing at the major league level both at the plate and in the field.
22. Ronald Uviedo (P). A respectable 1.236 WHIP makes him an interesting prospect. He did get hurt in the middle of this year, but seemed to come back from it well. A good strikeout pitcher who suffers from the long ball.
23. Neil Walker (3B). A .254 GPA is not so good. His time in the majors was not impressive either. He is a chronic slow starter and should be doing better. However, he is only 23. There is still time, but his spot is going to go to Alvarez. A trade maybe the best thing for him.
24. Jeff Clement (1B/C/OF). His age is one thing that bothers me. 26 is pretty old. He did put up a .283 GPA, which is good, but his defense at first is not that good. He might ought to be higher.
25. Brock Holt (SS). This position was hard to pick. Holt just does beat out Evan Chambers. Chambers had a horrible batting average, but a higher on-base percentage. In the end, Holt’s .274 GPA beat Chambers’s .271. Plus, Holt had 114 total bases. He can learn to take a walk later. Only 31 strikeouts shows that Holt is going to put the bat on the ball when he goes to the plate.
1. Pedro Alvarez (3B). There is really no debate here. Alvarez had a wonderful first year by any standards. He got better as he moved up in competition. His OPS in AA was over 1. That is pretty good. He has continued to do well for Team USA showing great power. He needs to work on his glove and continued improvement in plate discipline.
2. Jose Tabata (OF). He is improving every year. He slumped at the end of this year, but he still pulled a GPA (Gross Production Average) of .262 (the scale is similar to that of regular .AVG). Not great, but not a disaster.
3. Brad Lincoln (P). Lincoln had a great year and a year without injury, which might be more important. A 1.196 WHIP for the year while getting over 7 strikeouts per 9 innings. Waling under 1 per 9 innings and giving up .7 homeruns every 9 innings. That is good stuff. I think it might be time to see what Brad does in the majors.
4. Rudy Owens (P). This guy had a year that is hard to believe. Owens had a WHIP of .944 for the year. That is amazing. He averaged 8.2 strikeouts per 9 innings and had a Strikeout to walk ratio of 6.65. He also performed well in the playoffs.
5. Chase D’Arnaud (SS). He had a .292 GPA and did not see a drop off when going up a level in the minors. His defense needs some more work, but he showed great promise this year even adding some power as the year went on.
6. Tim Alderson (P). There is something about Tim Alderson. It is hard to explain. His WHIP is 1.282 which is pretty good, but he does not strike out a lot of guys. Yet, he wins games. He wins games. You would like to see him give up less hits, but he wins. He wins at every level. He has three minor league season under his belt spaning from Rookie ball to AA. He has only lost 7 games in three years. You have to like that.
7. Starling Marte (OF). Marte is still raw, but the Pirates seem to really like this kid. He seemed to handle the promotions well. The Pirates have a general rule not to promote anyone more than once a season, but Marte was promoted twice. His .274 GPA is good for a first year kid and a .802 OPS is also good. I list him so high because he is only 20.
8. Robbie Grossman (OF). Grossman slumped in the second half of the year, and only finished with a GPA of .257. Add to this his 164 strikeouts and one might be worried, but that is to be expected from a 19 year old as is the second half slump. His fielding percentage is excellent, and he stole 35 bases not to mention his On Base Percentage of .373. He is a good looking prospect with some places to work. But the upside is there.
9. Daniel McCutchen (P). McCutchen is another guy who does not wow you with his stats, but competes game in and game out. He won 13 games for Indianapolis, and that in itself is saying something. His WHIP is 1.220, but he does not strike out enough batters. Still he pitched rather well in his short stint with the majors, and I am interested to see what that does for his confidence.
10. Tony Sanchez (C). Sanchez could be a major steal. His .318 GPA is outstanding. A .949 OPS is great for a catcher. All of that and his defense is his real strength. Still he did struggle a bit when he moved up to Lychburg (High A) at the end of the season, but 10 At-Bats is hardly a good sample. This 21 year old is a prize in the system. I might have him a little low, but one year should not cause us to go over the moon. Yet.
11. Brett Lorin (P). I think that this guy could have the goods to make the Jack Wilson deal worth it all by himself. He had a 1.049 WHIP for the year. That is great. A 2.20 ERA is also impressive. He gives up too many walks, but he is still young. We will see how he does as he moves up in competition, but I like him right now.
12. Jordy Mercer (SS). It is far too early to give up on Jordy Mercer. He did have a less than stellar year with a .713 OPS, but he was put at High A in his first year of professional baseball. That is an adjustment from college. His 10 homeruns and 83 RBIs give reason to hope that good things are still to come from this middle infielder.
13. Brooks Pounders (P). It is still early on this one too. He needs to watch his walks, but that is to be expected from a 18 year old. What is impressive is only one homerun over 23.2 innings and 99 batters. In a draft class full of great pitching he looks good.
14. Aaron Pribonic (P). He is still a bit wild, but a 1.115 WHIP is good. He did not give up many long balls either, which is encouraging. About .4 every 9 innings. He is 22 so he needs to continue to be good as he moves up, but I think he earned a spot on Lynchburg for this upcoming year. He is one to watch. He came over in the Jack Wilson deal.
15. Zachary Foster (P). I know that this one might be a stretch, but Foster had a 1.000 WHIP. That is good. But since he is not a starter nor is he being used as one than other criteria should be used. He allowed one homerun in 29 innings which is what you want in the bullpen. He struck out almost a person an inning, and walked a little over half that many. He only allowed four earned runs and five total. He did convert one save, which I think was his only opportunity. That is the beginning of a good bullpen resume.
16. Justin Wilson (P). Another draft pick put right into High A baseball at Lynchburg. He struggled greatly out of the gate just like Jordy Mercer. Yet, he finished well, and thus, I think Wilson will be fine. His over all line with a 1.491 WHIP is not that good, but the fact he got better as the year went on is a great sign.
17. Trent Stevenson (P). Only 15 innings, so this is another stretch. Still a .867 WHIP in your first 15 innings of professional baseball is nothing to sneeze at.
18. Victor Black (P). Black only pitched 31 innings, but he struck out 33. It is a little early to rank him too high with 1.309 WHIP. Still a lot of hope here.
19. Jeffrey Locke (P). This might be another stretch, but he a quality that is seldom seen. This guy gives up more hits than he has innings pitched. That is awful, but only 5 of those 145 hits were homeruns. A good sign. With that many hits a 4.50 ERA is lower than one would expect. He strikes out a lot of hitters which makes you think if he can learn to command the pitches and fool hitters with them, he might be great.
20. Quinton Miller (P). Miller was another player who improved over the year. His walks are way too high, but that is one thing that pitchers generally improve upon as they work. His are high enough that keeping an eye on the walks might be a good way to gauge his progress. Still this is a 19 year old arm, and it looks loaded with potential.
21. Brian Bixler (IF). This one will probably make some people mad, but Brian Bixler improved this year. A .264 GPA is not all that impressive, and his 26 years of age is high. He will never be the Short Stop of the future for the Pirates, but he can still be a bench player. He played not only short this year, but Secondbase as well as some Centerfield. Learning those positions makes him more valuable. He also was better than years past while playing at the major league level both at the plate and in the field.
22. Ronald Uviedo (P). A respectable 1.236 WHIP makes him an interesting prospect. He did get hurt in the middle of this year, but seemed to come back from it well. A good strikeout pitcher who suffers from the long ball.
23. Neil Walker (3B). A .254 GPA is not so good. His time in the majors was not impressive either. He is a chronic slow starter and should be doing better. However, he is only 23. There is still time, but his spot is going to go to Alvarez. A trade maybe the best thing for him.
24. Jeff Clement (1B/C/OF). His age is one thing that bothers me. 26 is pretty old. He did put up a .283 GPA, which is good, but his defense at first is not that good. He might ought to be higher.
25. Brock Holt (SS). This position was hard to pick. Holt just does beat out Evan Chambers. Chambers had a horrible batting average, but a higher on-base percentage. In the end, Holt’s .274 GPA beat Chambers’s .271. Plus, Holt had 114 total bases. He can learn to take a walk later. Only 31 strikeouts shows that Holt is going to put the bat on the ball when he goes to the plate.
Tuesday, October 6, 2009
Trades: Hope for now, talent for later
I want to get back to the Murray Chass article. He accuses the Pirates of trading in order to dump money rather than build the franchise. That is simple ridiculous. He deals mostly with the Morgan-Burnett deal, which I have already dealt with in another article. What Chass fails to see is the way these trades are operating. Almost every trade has two components to it: hope for the present and talent for the long term. In other words the Pirates would receive an almost ready for big leagues player who has some hope of being good, but far from a sure thing as well as a real talent in the lower minor leagues. Chass wants benefit for right now, but the Pirates are building an organization not just a major league team. The two exceptions to this rule are the aforementioned deal with the Nationals involving Morgan and the Freddy Sanchez deal to the Giants for Double A pitching prospect who even in conservative estimates will be a end of the rotation major league pitcher.
The others are easily seen. First take a look at the Nate McClouth deal. McClouth was sent to the Braves for Charlie Morton, a hope now, but then adding Gorky Hernandez, a talent for the future.
Eric Hinske was traded next for a talent for the future: Casey Erickson a pitcher and Eric Fryer a catcher/outfielder. Hinske had no place with the Pirates. Getting two players for him is a major coup even if the Pirates never play them in the big leagues.
Adam LaRoche was traded for Argenis Diaz is the hope for now, or close to now at least, and Hunter Strickland is the talent for the low minors. LaRoche is a low value so the overall value received may not be that high in this deal.
Ian Snell and Jack Wilson were traded to the Mariners for Ronny Cedeno (who is a place holder) and Jeff Clement is the hope for now. The real meat of the deal was the three minor league pitchers: Pribonic, Lorin, and Adcock. They are the talent for the future. Snell by the way had proved he was not going to make it with the Pirates.
Next was the Cubs deal where Gorzelanny and Grabow were traded for Kevin Hart the hope for now and Jose Ascino and Josh Harrison as the talent for the future. This deal did not draw ire from Chass even though it hurt the Pirates much more than the Milledge deal. Losing Grabow killed the bullpen. But the hope in Hart is higher than most.
The amount of talent the Pirates received this year is amazing. The Pirates really did build an organization this year. The organization is much stronger even if this round of trades weakened the major league Pirates for the rest of the year. Chass needs to admit that there is a clear cut method to the trading madness of the Pittsburgh Front Office.
The others are easily seen. First take a look at the Nate McClouth deal. McClouth was sent to the Braves for Charlie Morton, a hope now, but then adding Gorky Hernandez, a talent for the future.
Eric Hinske was traded next for a talent for the future: Casey Erickson a pitcher and Eric Fryer a catcher/outfielder. Hinske had no place with the Pirates. Getting two players for him is a major coup even if the Pirates never play them in the big leagues.
Adam LaRoche was traded for Argenis Diaz is the hope for now, or close to now at least, and Hunter Strickland is the talent for the low minors. LaRoche is a low value so the overall value received may not be that high in this deal.
Ian Snell and Jack Wilson were traded to the Mariners for Ronny Cedeno (who is a place holder) and Jeff Clement is the hope for now. The real meat of the deal was the three minor league pitchers: Pribonic, Lorin, and Adcock. They are the talent for the future. Snell by the way had proved he was not going to make it with the Pirates.
Next was the Cubs deal where Gorzelanny and Grabow were traded for Kevin Hart the hope for now and Jose Ascino and Josh Harrison as the talent for the future. This deal did not draw ire from Chass even though it hurt the Pirates much more than the Milledge deal. Losing Grabow killed the bullpen. But the hope in Hart is higher than most.
The amount of talent the Pirates received this year is amazing. The Pirates really did build an organization this year. The organization is much stronger even if this round of trades weakened the major league Pirates for the rest of the year. Chass needs to admit that there is a clear cut method to the trading madness of the Pittsburgh Front Office.
Monday, October 5, 2009
Next Year's Outlook
I hate to disagree with Jennifer Langosh, but I do think the outlook for next year is not quite as good. Clearly we have more organizational depth, but the best of the depth is still in Single A. We have a lot of hope, but not all that much certainty for our major league team next year. If every plays like you hope, then we will be good. Realistically though it won’t happen. Jennifer also over sells the depth at starting pitching. The bullpen needs real help. Calling Meek, Hanrahan, and Chavez consistent right handers is justified, but saying they will have possibility of being late inning guys is exactly the problem. If Hanrahan lived up to potential we would have our 8th inning guy. Yet all of these guys have failed to be the late inning guy this year (Meek was hurt down the stretch so he has not really failed yet). Capps needs someone in front of him that is solid. This is where the free agent money ought to go.
I will do my own break down of positions, rotation, and bullpen later. But what is clear, even from Jennifer’s comments, is that the Pirates could be a lot better than they will be because they will keep real improvement in the minors. The Pirates could win the NL Central next year and be very competitive if they were to bring up Alvarez and Tabata. That would upgrade the current roster immeasurably. Alvarez would probably hit better than LaRoche who was just under .260 and be a legitimate power threat, which the Pirates need. Tabata would be an upgrade of about 60 points (assuming a rather low .260 average) over Pierce, who would the one actually replaced by Tabata. Jones at first would open the outfield spot for Tabata. That alone is a major upgrade from the Pirates offense. Add Brad Lincoln into the mix instead of Hart or Morton, both of whom were bad, and the Pirates have upgraded the pitching as well. A free agent lefty in the pen and a healthy Ryan Doumit upgrading his average and power would make a fine and competitive team.
Yet the odds are really high that Tabata, Alvarez, and Lincoln will all be in the minors next year and that rather than getting a good bullpen guy the Pirates will spend money on a needless corner outfielder like they did this year with Eric Heinske.
I still think the Pirates can win the division, but they will need some help now. I think over .500 is likely especially since I do think that you will see Alvarez and Tabata before the year is out. I also think Lincoln will be up once they lose their patience with Hart, Morton, or McCutchen.
I will do my own break down of positions, rotation, and bullpen later. But what is clear, even from Jennifer’s comments, is that the Pirates could be a lot better than they will be because they will keep real improvement in the minors. The Pirates could win the NL Central next year and be very competitive if they were to bring up Alvarez and Tabata. That would upgrade the current roster immeasurably. Alvarez would probably hit better than LaRoche who was just under .260 and be a legitimate power threat, which the Pirates need. Tabata would be an upgrade of about 60 points (assuming a rather low .260 average) over Pierce, who would the one actually replaced by Tabata. Jones at first would open the outfield spot for Tabata. That alone is a major upgrade from the Pirates offense. Add Brad Lincoln into the mix instead of Hart or Morton, both of whom were bad, and the Pirates have upgraded the pitching as well. A free agent lefty in the pen and a healthy Ryan Doumit upgrading his average and power would make a fine and competitive team.
Yet the odds are really high that Tabata, Alvarez, and Lincoln will all be in the minors next year and that rather than getting a good bullpen guy the Pirates will spend money on a needless corner outfielder like they did this year with Eric Heinske.
I still think the Pirates can win the division, but they will need some help now. I think over .500 is likely especially since I do think that you will see Alvarez and Tabata before the year is out. I also think Lincoln will be up once they lose their patience with Hart, Morton, or McCutchen.
Sunday, October 4, 2009
Ending on a Sour Note
The 2009 season is officially over for the Pirates. They lost and were shut out by the Reds. That makes the Pirates 62-99 with one game cancelled that that Pirates were winning. Still if you need bright spots, Andrew McCutchen ended the season with a .286 average and Garrett Jones ended with a .293 average. Two cornerstones for the future. The last game also saw Eric Hacker throw a scoreless inning, which was nice for him. Other than that the last game was a disaster like most of the season.
Now begins the off season of filling holes and trying to make next year as good as it can be while preparing for a 2012 title run.
I will continue blogging in the off season starting by answering the critics of the Pirates.
Now begins the off season of filling holes and trying to make next year as good as it can be while preparing for a 2012 title run.
I will continue blogging in the off season starting by answering the critics of the Pirates.
Friday, October 2, 2009
Congrats
Congratulations are in order for Daniel McCutchen who just got his first career win. He pitched 6 1/3 innings of shut out baseball before giving up a solo homerun. He was then pulled and the bullpen preserved the 3-1 lead for the win. Yes, that means Matt Capps converted a save opportunity. McCutchen may have started shaky in the majors, but he has really shown that he belongs and can win at this level. Three straight quality starts is something that ought to give him confidence going into next year. I hope that McCutchen and Lincoln are up to fill spots four and five in the rotation next year.
Thursday, October 1, 2009
Not So Fast
The Pirates last game versus the Cubs was cancelled on account of rain and will not be made up because the Pirates were winning. We would not want to inflate that record too much.
The Pirates did pull off an impressive double header sweep on Wed. It was the first on the road since 1996.
But before we get too excited we need to remember that Game 1 the Cubs played no one. No Derek Lee. No Amaris Rameriz. So we should not give too much credit to Charlie Morton. Even though this was probably his best outing, he was pitching to a lot of over eager minor leaguers. Morton excels at those guys. The people he cannot get out are the ones who are not swinging at the first pitch, and will wait for Morton to groove an off speed pitch. Also remember in this game that if Milledge does not make a hard slide to disrupt the double play that game is a zero-zero tie after 9. Pierce would have just grounded into an inning ending double play. Then after the Cubs lost their argument the Cubs pitcher was clearly shaken as Jarmillo doubled and Bixler singled to complete a four run innning. That was all the Pirates got.
Game 2 was a much better sign and perhaps Jeff Karstens re-introducing himself into the starter conversation. He won three games in starts this year, and started a fourth that the team won, but Karstens did not go enough innings to get the win. Game 2 was another example of McCutchen as the spark plug. Two hits and one walk equaled two runs. Garret Jones got one walk and he scored that run too. LaRoche got one hit inbetween the big two, and he scored a run as well. Those guys allowed Ryan Doumit to have a great game with four hits and four RBI's and 3 runs since he hit a solo homerun once. The top of the line up has great potential for the Pirates next year.
The Pirates did pull off an impressive double header sweep on Wed. It was the first on the road since 1996.
But before we get too excited we need to remember that Game 1 the Cubs played no one. No Derek Lee. No Amaris Rameriz. So we should not give too much credit to Charlie Morton. Even though this was probably his best outing, he was pitching to a lot of over eager minor leaguers. Morton excels at those guys. The people he cannot get out are the ones who are not swinging at the first pitch, and will wait for Morton to groove an off speed pitch. Also remember in this game that if Milledge does not make a hard slide to disrupt the double play that game is a zero-zero tie after 9. Pierce would have just grounded into an inning ending double play. Then after the Cubs lost their argument the Cubs pitcher was clearly shaken as Jarmillo doubled and Bixler singled to complete a four run innning. That was all the Pirates got.
Game 2 was a much better sign and perhaps Jeff Karstens re-introducing himself into the starter conversation. He won three games in starts this year, and started a fourth that the team won, but Karstens did not go enough innings to get the win. Game 2 was another example of McCutchen as the spark plug. Two hits and one walk equaled two runs. Garret Jones got one walk and he scored that run too. LaRoche got one hit inbetween the big two, and he scored a run as well. Those guys allowed Ryan Doumit to have a great game with four hits and four RBI's and 3 runs since he hit a solo homerun once. The top of the line up has great potential for the Pirates next year.
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