I hope everyone is enjoying this offseason as a lot has been going on.
The main focus of the front office has apparently been the pitching. The rotation appears to be shaping up as AJ Burrnett, Wandy Rodriguiz, Fransico Lirano, James McDonald, and Jeff Karstens. That is a decent rotation with some potential for failure in Lirano and McDonald. However, this year the Pirates have an abundance of talent to replace any slackers. The AAA rotation seems to be Jeff Locke, Kyle McPherson, Gerrit Cole, and Phil Irwin. All of whom I like a lot. Don't forget Charlie Morton should be back midseason.
The bullpen has undergone a transformation with it now officially being the Jason Grilli era. He is going to have Mark Melancon as his set up man, and Vin Mazzaro as a long man. I have my concerns there, but in the pen he was not a disaster like he was as a starter in Kansas City. Tony Watson is the lefty, and Chris Leroux is out of options, so I would imagine he will make the opening day roster. I will be awaiting the arrival of Vic Black, who will probably be the closer in AAA, but I like his future.
The Pirates did fix the catcher slot, at least defensively with Russell Martin. We have to wait and see if his offense disappears and there is some reason to think it will. The Pirates did add some other guys to help out the bench, but how all of that fits is a big question mark. For example, I am super excited about the addition of Clint Robinson. Yet, where does Clint fit. He has an option, but the Jones/Sanchez platoon at first is good, so no room for Clint on the bench, and he has nothing left to prove after being very good in Omaha. Another question is what to do with the crowded infield back up slot. Assuming Barmes is the opening day short stop, that leaves the Pirates with Josh Harrison, Chase D'Arnaud, and Jordy Mercer as back ups. Harrison is a spark plug that can play second and short, and he puts the ball in play, however, he never ever walks. Chase is fast and is a more natural short than Harrison, but does not hit as well as Harrison. Jordy is the best defensive option, and the Pirates like that as he sat the bench and only did defense for many games last year. He can play any of the infield slots without a problem, and he has the most power potential in the group, but has not been given a shot to see consistent balls at the big league level to see if he is going to be able to put the ball in play at all.
The outfield is just as crowded. Marte and McCutchen are sure fire starters. This time last year I would have said Tabata was as well, but he was awful last year. Awful. The Pirates went out and acquired Jerry Sands who is a right hand hitting outfielder just like Tabata. And at the Trade Deadline last year they picked up a left hand outfielder in Travis Snider. This puts speedy lefty Alex Presley in doubt. It seems the Pirates will probably platoon a corner outfield spot, but which righty and which lefty? It seems unlikely that they would carry a fifth outfielder since Garret Jones can play outfield too, and so can Harrison in an emergency.
It will be a more interesting spring training than usual. Looking forward to it getting started.
Friday, January 25, 2013
Saturday, December 1, 2012
Roster moves and Karstens!!!!
The Pirates have started to assemble their 2013 roster. The two big moves to think about are Russel Martin behind the plate and letting go of Jeff Karstens.
First, Martin. I guess I am okay with this, but I probably would not have done it. I think they paid him in the 8 million range, and that is too high for an aging vet who is a good game caller, limited hitter with pop, and only so-so at throwing out runners. He will undoubtedly be an upgrade so it is hard to get upset, but the Pirates are where catchers go to die, and this is just the next victim in my mind. Snyder and Barajas both could not find power in PNC, and I worry about Martin. But the Pirates were desperate, and so how can you blame them.
Second, Karstens was not tendered a contract. I will make no secret of the fact that I have long been a huge Jeff Karstens fan. I thought he was the best of the group when we traded for him, even better than Ohlendorf and Pitch-n-Cutch, and so far I have been right. He is not a great stats guy, and he cannot go deep in games, but he gives you a chance every night. I think that makes him a perfect 5th starter. Let's be honest, you cannot have 5 aces. Karstens is a great back end starter, and he went deeper into games this year. And if your manager knows Karstens is going to hit a wall in the 6th, then your bullpen can be ready and take him out. Now, for Karstans not to be a drain on the pen you need an ace who can give you innings, and they have that now with Burnett. Morton was tendered a contract, and he has always been weak in my mind. Now he has the stuff that Karstens never did, but Morton as the great strikeout pitcher did not work, and now he pitches to contact, and he had one good year with that. This year he was much worse, and I am not sure you can bet on him returning to 2011 stats. Plus, about the time Morton is recovering, you are going to be looking to bring up Cole. So, I would have non-tendered Morton, or at least tendered them both.
But to be fair, let us look at what the Pirates might have been doing. Many rumors abound about getting rid of Hanrahan in a trade. Much of this speculation is founded upon the idea of re-signing Grilli and turning him into a closer. Grilli was amazing this year, but I am worried he will fold as a closer, but why not try it. He is going to be a closer somewhere, and there is no way he resigns with us unless we make him the closer. Saving the 3.8 million from Karstens might could be used to pay Grilli. If that is the plan, then maybe this is worth it. This might also signal a strong trust in the Pirate youngsters such as Locke and McPherson and even Cole. They did trade for Vin Mazzarro, but if he is going to be taking Karsten's place, then I am sick to my stomach and the Pirates are going to have another losing season. If Mazzarro is bullpen depth, then I am okay.
Which brings me to one last point, I am a huge fan of Clint Robinson. He was simply blocked by a former top prospect in baseball in Eric Hosmer and perhaps one of the top 10 players in baseball right now in Billy Butler. Robinson can hit for average and has shown power. His defense is fine, and the man can take a walk which will be nice to see for a change. I hope they do not bury him in AAA, but I expect he will start the season there.
Overall an active Pirate organization is a good sign. We are not talking about Rule 5 draft choices and that means the Pirates are really in contention.
First, Martin. I guess I am okay with this, but I probably would not have done it. I think they paid him in the 8 million range, and that is too high for an aging vet who is a good game caller, limited hitter with pop, and only so-so at throwing out runners. He will undoubtedly be an upgrade so it is hard to get upset, but the Pirates are where catchers go to die, and this is just the next victim in my mind. Snyder and Barajas both could not find power in PNC, and I worry about Martin. But the Pirates were desperate, and so how can you blame them.
Second, Karstens was not tendered a contract. I will make no secret of the fact that I have long been a huge Jeff Karstens fan. I thought he was the best of the group when we traded for him, even better than Ohlendorf and Pitch-n-Cutch, and so far I have been right. He is not a great stats guy, and he cannot go deep in games, but he gives you a chance every night. I think that makes him a perfect 5th starter. Let's be honest, you cannot have 5 aces. Karstens is a great back end starter, and he went deeper into games this year. And if your manager knows Karstens is going to hit a wall in the 6th, then your bullpen can be ready and take him out. Now, for Karstans not to be a drain on the pen you need an ace who can give you innings, and they have that now with Burnett. Morton was tendered a contract, and he has always been weak in my mind. Now he has the stuff that Karstens never did, but Morton as the great strikeout pitcher did not work, and now he pitches to contact, and he had one good year with that. This year he was much worse, and I am not sure you can bet on him returning to 2011 stats. Plus, about the time Morton is recovering, you are going to be looking to bring up Cole. So, I would have non-tendered Morton, or at least tendered them both.
But to be fair, let us look at what the Pirates might have been doing. Many rumors abound about getting rid of Hanrahan in a trade. Much of this speculation is founded upon the idea of re-signing Grilli and turning him into a closer. Grilli was amazing this year, but I am worried he will fold as a closer, but why not try it. He is going to be a closer somewhere, and there is no way he resigns with us unless we make him the closer. Saving the 3.8 million from Karstens might could be used to pay Grilli. If that is the plan, then maybe this is worth it. This might also signal a strong trust in the Pirate youngsters such as Locke and McPherson and even Cole. They did trade for Vin Mazzarro, but if he is going to be taking Karsten's place, then I am sick to my stomach and the Pirates are going to have another losing season. If Mazzarro is bullpen depth, then I am okay.
Which brings me to one last point, I am a huge fan of Clint Robinson. He was simply blocked by a former top prospect in baseball in Eric Hosmer and perhaps one of the top 10 players in baseball right now in Billy Butler. Robinson can hit for average and has shown power. His defense is fine, and the man can take a walk which will be nice to see for a change. I hope they do not bury him in AAA, but I expect he will start the season there.
Overall an active Pirate organization is a good sign. We are not talking about Rule 5 draft choices and that means the Pirates are really in contention.
Saturday, November 24, 2012
40 Man Roster
The Pirates have fixed their 40 Man roster, and it is not a very surprising year. This year I don't think the Pirates will lose anyone in the Rule 5 Draft, although it looks like they could choose someone as the roster is only at 39. If they can't get a free agent, they may take a chance. And they have to make some decisions on tendering offers yet. If they choose not to keep someone like Resop (which would be okay with me) or Karstens (which would upset me), then there are more spots for more signings.
The Pirates added Tony Sanchez and Ramon Cabrera. Both are catchers but only Sanchez has real chance of making a contribution. Cabrera is a sign of our lack of depth at catcher. If we do sign a catcher, he could be dropped from the 40 man without much worry.
They added Vic Black, who is going to be a late inning bullpen guy and maybe one day a closer. I like Black, and I think we see him this year in Pittsburgh. One of the reasons Resop is expendable. They also added Hunter Strickland. This is just the Pirates liking velocity and hoping.
The Pirates added Phil Irwin, who forced them to do it. He is a low 90's pitcher who has done nothing but win at every level. He was their only pitcher when he was at West Virginia, but all assumed he would wash out at Bradenton, a hitters park. He didn't. This past year he showed he could win at AA, and in fact seems to be getting more strikeouts. Irwin would have been taken, so he has to be protected. I am excited to see him at AAA this year.
Those left off are in little danger of going anywhere with one exception. First, this is the end of Jarek Cunningham. He was highly thought of by many people, but was never any good. He had power, but baseball is about a lot more than power, like being able to hit.
The one who could get taken is Kyle Kaminska. He was part of the Gabby Sanchez trade and saw some time with the Pirates. They tried him out in the AFL, but apparently were not pleased enough to give him a slot. He did well in the AFL, but not really anywhere else. We will see if a team takes a runner on Kyle and hides him in the bullpen.
It should also be noted that this is the end of the line for Tim Alderson. He was not added. I don't think he will get picked, but it is basically the Pirates giving up on him. Starter, bullpen, fix his delivery, and whatever else was held out as hope is all gone. Alderson is a bust, and stands as clearly the worst trade the Pirates have made in some time. Just awful.
Winter Meetings are on the horizon. Free agents here we come.
The Pirates added Tony Sanchez and Ramon Cabrera. Both are catchers but only Sanchez has real chance of making a contribution. Cabrera is a sign of our lack of depth at catcher. If we do sign a catcher, he could be dropped from the 40 man without much worry.
They added Vic Black, who is going to be a late inning bullpen guy and maybe one day a closer. I like Black, and I think we see him this year in Pittsburgh. One of the reasons Resop is expendable. They also added Hunter Strickland. This is just the Pirates liking velocity and hoping.
The Pirates added Phil Irwin, who forced them to do it. He is a low 90's pitcher who has done nothing but win at every level. He was their only pitcher when he was at West Virginia, but all assumed he would wash out at Bradenton, a hitters park. He didn't. This past year he showed he could win at AA, and in fact seems to be getting more strikeouts. Irwin would have been taken, so he has to be protected. I am excited to see him at AAA this year.
Those left off are in little danger of going anywhere with one exception. First, this is the end of Jarek Cunningham. He was highly thought of by many people, but was never any good. He had power, but baseball is about a lot more than power, like being able to hit.
The one who could get taken is Kyle Kaminska. He was part of the Gabby Sanchez trade and saw some time with the Pirates. They tried him out in the AFL, but apparently were not pleased enough to give him a slot. He did well in the AFL, but not really anywhere else. We will see if a team takes a runner on Kyle and hides him in the bullpen.
It should also be noted that this is the end of the line for Tim Alderson. He was not added. I don't think he will get picked, but it is basically the Pirates giving up on him. Starter, bullpen, fix his delivery, and whatever else was held out as hope is all gone. Alderson is a bust, and stands as clearly the worst trade the Pirates have made in some time. Just awful.
Winter Meetings are on the horizon. Free agents here we come.
Friday, October 12, 2012
Next Year
We are going to start going through the top prospects in the system, but until the Arizona Fall League makes things a little clear for us, we should think about the Pirates next year.
The Pirates will probably not re-sign Correia, Qualls, or Barajas. I would like to hope they keep Grilli, but he may leave for bigger money elsewhere. I think they will non-tender Resop if they can resign Grilli, but if they don't think they can, they keep Resop. But Charlie Morton is a non-tender guy. Other than that, I think they have to tender everyone. Karstens, they need. Sanchez could go, but he is probably worth the price, and they are short at 1B. Walker, McDonald, and Hanrahan are clear cut tenders. So is Garret Jones.
That leaves a hole at catcher, some holes in the pen, and a fifth starter.
Frankly, I don't think Tony Sanchez is ready for starting in the majors. This is a place the Pirates focus on during the off season. They need a catcher who can throw some one out, or at least make them think twice. Hitting would not hurt here either.
I don't think the Pirates will be able to sign anyone worth while as a starter. If they can great, he moves into the rotation, but if not I think the Pirates are comfortable with Kyle McPherson. Jeff Locke will start off in Triple A unless he has a great training camp. The bullpen can get a few signees.
The real question is the bench. There is a bit of a glut for the corner outfield spot, and a bunch of utility infielders to choose from. In the outfield you have Travis Snyder, Jose Tabata, and Alex Presley assuming that one corner spot goes to Starling Marte. As the utility infield you have Jordy Mercer, Josh Harrison, Chase D'Arnaud, and Brock Holt.
So my predictions for next year's line up are:
Catcher: Free Agent and McHenry as the back up.
First Base: Garret Jones and Gaby Sanchez
Second Base: Neil Walker
Short Stop: Clint Barmes (yes, he will be back)
Third Base: Pedro Alvarez
Outfield: Andrew McCutchen, Starling Marte, and Jose Tabata
Bench: (McHenry and Sanchez as stated) Jordy Mercer (because he is the best defensively and can play all three infield positions), Travis Snyder (he is left handed with more power than Presley. I would even expect a possible platoon with Tabata), and then Josh Harrison.
I think Harrison will make it because he is a Hurdle type guy. Harrison plays with energy, and he puts the ball in play. No walks, but contact. He has shown he can do it more than d'Arnaud, and Brock Holt has more options left than either of those guys. Holt's defense is limited to second base, and that position is locked in. Harrison could play third as well as second.
Frankly, I would be happier if they traded Barmes, and started Mercer with d'Arnaud then making the team, but they won't do it. Mercer has never been given a consistent shot at hitting major league pitching. I think he could do as well as Barmes.
Rotation: Burnett, Wandy Rodriguiz, McDonald, Karstens, and McPherson (Cole will join in July replacing whoever is failing of the last three)
Bullpen: Hanrahan, Resop, Jared Hughes, Justin Wilson, Free Agent, Free Agent, Victor Black.
Now I am a little out there on this one. Black is clearly part of the future, and I think he becomes the new Grilli this year. However, they may slow play Black in AAA. Either way, I think the bullpen is almost completely reconstructed. Bryan Morris was bad down the stretch this year, and he is not going to break camp with the team. Chris Leroux is a possibility, but not a great one. Tony Watson has done it in the past, but he may sit in AAA if they sign a good lefty Free Agent. Also, Daniel McCutchen is not going to survive the winter, as I bet they cut him from the 40 man. The Bullpen was not that good this year, and I think the Pirates will rebuild it with free agents as they often do. Expect some camp invites and out right signings to create a real bullpen competition. And remember Resop may not come back, so this is wide open.
The Pirates will probably not re-sign Correia, Qualls, or Barajas. I would like to hope they keep Grilli, but he may leave for bigger money elsewhere. I think they will non-tender Resop if they can resign Grilli, but if they don't think they can, they keep Resop. But Charlie Morton is a non-tender guy. Other than that, I think they have to tender everyone. Karstens, they need. Sanchez could go, but he is probably worth the price, and they are short at 1B. Walker, McDonald, and Hanrahan are clear cut tenders. So is Garret Jones.
That leaves a hole at catcher, some holes in the pen, and a fifth starter.
Frankly, I don't think Tony Sanchez is ready for starting in the majors. This is a place the Pirates focus on during the off season. They need a catcher who can throw some one out, or at least make them think twice. Hitting would not hurt here either.
I don't think the Pirates will be able to sign anyone worth while as a starter. If they can great, he moves into the rotation, but if not I think the Pirates are comfortable with Kyle McPherson. Jeff Locke will start off in Triple A unless he has a great training camp. The bullpen can get a few signees.
The real question is the bench. There is a bit of a glut for the corner outfield spot, and a bunch of utility infielders to choose from. In the outfield you have Travis Snyder, Jose Tabata, and Alex Presley assuming that one corner spot goes to Starling Marte. As the utility infield you have Jordy Mercer, Josh Harrison, Chase D'Arnaud, and Brock Holt.
So my predictions for next year's line up are:
Catcher: Free Agent and McHenry as the back up.
First Base: Garret Jones and Gaby Sanchez
Second Base: Neil Walker
Short Stop: Clint Barmes (yes, he will be back)
Third Base: Pedro Alvarez
Outfield: Andrew McCutchen, Starling Marte, and Jose Tabata
Bench: (McHenry and Sanchez as stated) Jordy Mercer (because he is the best defensively and can play all three infield positions), Travis Snyder (he is left handed with more power than Presley. I would even expect a possible platoon with Tabata), and then Josh Harrison.
I think Harrison will make it because he is a Hurdle type guy. Harrison plays with energy, and he puts the ball in play. No walks, but contact. He has shown he can do it more than d'Arnaud, and Brock Holt has more options left than either of those guys. Holt's defense is limited to second base, and that position is locked in. Harrison could play third as well as second.
Frankly, I would be happier if they traded Barmes, and started Mercer with d'Arnaud then making the team, but they won't do it. Mercer has never been given a consistent shot at hitting major league pitching. I think he could do as well as Barmes.
Rotation: Burnett, Wandy Rodriguiz, McDonald, Karstens, and McPherson (Cole will join in July replacing whoever is failing of the last three)
Bullpen: Hanrahan, Resop, Jared Hughes, Justin Wilson, Free Agent, Free Agent, Victor Black.
Now I am a little out there on this one. Black is clearly part of the future, and I think he becomes the new Grilli this year. However, they may slow play Black in AAA. Either way, I think the bullpen is almost completely reconstructed. Bryan Morris was bad down the stretch this year, and he is not going to break camp with the team. Chris Leroux is a possibility, but not a great one. Tony Watson has done it in the past, but he may sit in AAA if they sign a good lefty Free Agent. Also, Daniel McCutchen is not going to survive the winter, as I bet they cut him from the 40 man. The Bullpen was not that good this year, and I think the Pirates will rebuild it with free agents as they often do. Expect some camp invites and out right signings to create a real bullpen competition. And remember Resop may not come back, so this is wide open.
Friday, September 21, 2012
Neal's Draft Class - Should we fire Neal
Now let me be clear up front. I think it would be a mistake not to retain Neal Hunington. I think the clear improvement in the on field product at basically every level is reason enough. I think the vast improvement in the Latin American presence is reason enough. But recently a lot of criticism has arisen over his drafts. The good people at Bucs Dugout for example make a case for why the draft classes of NH are not good. I want to take my own look at the class of 08-12 to see if Neal's drafts are as bad as some think.
We should begin by looking at 1st round picks because that is where every team has a shot at an impact player. Neal changed the thinking of the Front Office and has gone for the big name, usually. In 08 it was Pedro Alvarez. He may have been rushed, but he appears to be the impact player now. In 09 it was Tony Sanchez, which we will come back to as Tony is still in the minors. In 10 it was Taillon, who still appears to be on track as an ace. In 11 it was Gerrit Cole, who is another ace. In 12 it was Mark Appell, who did not sign. So, we see three of the five NH did what he should and has helped the franchise. Appell's case is interesting since he did not sign, but it is under the new system. The Pirates did everything they could without being punished by MLB, and Appel just would not sign. And they get a comp pick at #9 overall next year, so it makes trying to sign Appel a good gamble. Appel was the best talent on the board. In 09 the draft class was weak, and NH had a strategy to sign lots of HS arms later in the draft and so he saved some money. In the end, Sanchez will still be a starting catcher for the Pirates, perhaps as soon as next year. I would stop short of saying he is an impact player, but he will be a starter, so it is hard to classify it as a failure pick. And for the record only three All Stars have come out of that draft, one of which is Strassborg, who was already gone by the Pirates 4th pick. The other two are Aaron Crow, as a bullpen arm, and Mike Trout, who was a high school bat at the time. Just to show the Pirates were not alone in that mess, the second overall pick was Dustin Ackley who hit .232 this year for the Mariners. Third overall pick Donavan Tate played in High A ball this year. Mike Minor and Mike Leake are good pitchers the Pirates might could have gotten, but not a big whiff.
Let us now look at this strategy of signing younger players with big bonuses to see if has worked out.
In 08 we signed 8 guys to bonuses over 100,000. Jordy Mercer, Chase d'Arnaud, and Justin Wilson appear poised to make contributions the Pirates and have already played for them. Robbie Grossman was traded in the Wandy deal, so he was clearly good enough to aid the team as a trade piece. Can't hold that against him. Benji Gonzales, Wes Freeman, Quinton Miller, and Jeremy Farell appear to be organizational guys only. So NH hit 50%.
In 09 there were there were 12 late round big bonus guys. Brock Holt is already on the team and looks very good at the plate. Others who appear ready or on track to help the Pirates include only Victor Black. Black may even break camp with the Pirates and looks like a future closer. However before throwing out the rest of this class, we need to note that Colton Cain was part of the Wandy trade, and Brooks Pounders was traded for Navarro this past off season. Both those guys then need to count as good picks. In addition, it is still to early to give up on Dodson and Von Rosenberg. ZVR showed improvement and Dodson had a good year in the past before an injury. Next year is make or break for both. That makes the success rate at a possible 50% again, but will probably be a little lower if ZVR and Dodson do not pan out.
2010 was a major year where the Pirates signed Stetson Allie to a big multimillion dollar deal. He has since been removed as a pitcher and put in the field. No matter what happens in my opinion that is a big whiff. At least let him try to be a closer. That is the biggest mistake made by NH, but I hardly think it is worth burying him over. Let us also remember that Brandon Crumpton still looks like a back of the rotation possibility, Tyler Waldron looks like a bullpen contributor. Nick Kingham also looks like a middle to back of the rotation guy. So three decent picks who are all on pace. Mel Rojas Jr. and Drew Maggi are not tearing it up with the bats, but neither looks overmatched at this point either. Both could show a little more plate discipline, but they are still on track as potential MLB guys . Ryan Hafner followed up his good last season with an absolute disaster this year. Still, he was always a project and it is too early to give up on him. Jared Lakind is probably too early to give up on either, but he and Sadler look like misses. So here you have 3 good picks, 3 misses (including a big one), and 3 maybes.
In 2011 the Pirates took 11 more big bonus guys. And it is too early to rule any of these guys out and it should be noted that the Pirates likely knew this was the last year they could do the bonus game, so why not throw a lot of money around. They did, so maybe we ought to be a little easy on them for going for broke the last year one could. Josh Bell is the highlight of this group, and he was doing great before a knee injury ended the season for him. While Dickerson (3rd round pick) was disappointing, but not awful, the Pirates look pretty good in this group. Candon Myles hit .279 and has speed. Colten Brewer had an up and down year but is striking out 6.5 per 9 innings. Tyler Glasnow was at 10 K/9. Jake Burnette struggled, but was pitching at Low A, which ought to be remembered. The same is true of Jason Creasy. They are still interesting prospects. Clay Holmes also pitched at Low A, and frankly was pretty good winning 5. Walks are a bit high, but that is to be expected. I think Holmes may make the jump to West Virginia this next year. Taylor Lewis was okay, and Dan Gamache was good and shows utility infield kind of defense. The only one that looks to be shaping up as a miss is Jordan Cooper who is throwing out the bullpen and giving up lots of long balls (almost 3 per 9 innings).
2012 is way to early to read, but the number of big bonuses is now really kind of set at 10 thanks to the new CBA. The Pirates look like they got a real winner in Wyatt Mathewson who tore up Rookie league along with Max Moroff. Interestingly Moroff walked more than he struck out. Eric Wood did well there too. Barrett Barnes looked good in Low A. Sandfort struggled a bit in 8 appearances, but that is to be expected. Adrian Sampson was striking out 9 per 9 innings with a nice 2.82 ERA. And John Kuchno only threw 5 innings.
And remember this does not say anything about late round finds that are turning out well and signed for under $100,000 like Matt Curry and Phil Irwin, both of whom look like the have at least limited MLB roles in their future.
It is possible that the draft strategy of Neal Hunington is only going to be right 50% of the time. Still, is that a bad failure rate? The big miss of Allie has many questioning the decisions. Even if you think that this is an unacceptable draft philosophy it is all moot now. MLB got rid of that possibility in the CBA with the hard slotting system. Now Neal cannot do it anymore. So, I think the draft should not be a reason to fire NH. And I think it is a possibility that the Pirates are going to end up with a lot of good players from the last two drafts under the old system (10 and 11). I think you can see that Neal grew in his drafts. In 09 he threw money at young projectable pitchers. He still did a lot of that in 10 and 11, but also moved on to get good position players. Players like Josh Bell, Candon Myles, and Max Moroff are exciting additions and less likely to flop big as some high school pitching arms. The growth of the Pirates in the draft has me excited for drafts, which was never true under the old regime. Let us not forget how bad it was when we drafted Daniel Moskos and Bryan Bullington. Those days are gone. Let us rejoice and be glad in it.
We should begin by looking at 1st round picks because that is where every team has a shot at an impact player. Neal changed the thinking of the Front Office and has gone for the big name, usually. In 08 it was Pedro Alvarez. He may have been rushed, but he appears to be the impact player now. In 09 it was Tony Sanchez, which we will come back to as Tony is still in the minors. In 10 it was Taillon, who still appears to be on track as an ace. In 11 it was Gerrit Cole, who is another ace. In 12 it was Mark Appell, who did not sign. So, we see three of the five NH did what he should and has helped the franchise. Appell's case is interesting since he did not sign, but it is under the new system. The Pirates did everything they could without being punished by MLB, and Appel just would not sign. And they get a comp pick at #9 overall next year, so it makes trying to sign Appel a good gamble. Appel was the best talent on the board. In 09 the draft class was weak, and NH had a strategy to sign lots of HS arms later in the draft and so he saved some money. In the end, Sanchez will still be a starting catcher for the Pirates, perhaps as soon as next year. I would stop short of saying he is an impact player, but he will be a starter, so it is hard to classify it as a failure pick. And for the record only three All Stars have come out of that draft, one of which is Strassborg, who was already gone by the Pirates 4th pick. The other two are Aaron Crow, as a bullpen arm, and Mike Trout, who was a high school bat at the time. Just to show the Pirates were not alone in that mess, the second overall pick was Dustin Ackley who hit .232 this year for the Mariners. Third overall pick Donavan Tate played in High A ball this year. Mike Minor and Mike Leake are good pitchers the Pirates might could have gotten, but not a big whiff.
Let us now look at this strategy of signing younger players with big bonuses to see if has worked out.
In 08 we signed 8 guys to bonuses over 100,000. Jordy Mercer, Chase d'Arnaud, and Justin Wilson appear poised to make contributions the Pirates and have already played for them. Robbie Grossman was traded in the Wandy deal, so he was clearly good enough to aid the team as a trade piece. Can't hold that against him. Benji Gonzales, Wes Freeman, Quinton Miller, and Jeremy Farell appear to be organizational guys only. So NH hit 50%.
In 09 there were there were 12 late round big bonus guys. Brock Holt is already on the team and looks very good at the plate. Others who appear ready or on track to help the Pirates include only Victor Black. Black may even break camp with the Pirates and looks like a future closer. However before throwing out the rest of this class, we need to note that Colton Cain was part of the Wandy trade, and Brooks Pounders was traded for Navarro this past off season. Both those guys then need to count as good picks. In addition, it is still to early to give up on Dodson and Von Rosenberg. ZVR showed improvement and Dodson had a good year in the past before an injury. Next year is make or break for both. That makes the success rate at a possible 50% again, but will probably be a little lower if ZVR and Dodson do not pan out.
2010 was a major year where the Pirates signed Stetson Allie to a big multimillion dollar deal. He has since been removed as a pitcher and put in the field. No matter what happens in my opinion that is a big whiff. At least let him try to be a closer. That is the biggest mistake made by NH, but I hardly think it is worth burying him over. Let us also remember that Brandon Crumpton still looks like a back of the rotation possibility, Tyler Waldron looks like a bullpen contributor. Nick Kingham also looks like a middle to back of the rotation guy. So three decent picks who are all on pace. Mel Rojas Jr. and Drew Maggi are not tearing it up with the bats, but neither looks overmatched at this point either. Both could show a little more plate discipline, but they are still on track as potential MLB guys . Ryan Hafner followed up his good last season with an absolute disaster this year. Still, he was always a project and it is too early to give up on him. Jared Lakind is probably too early to give up on either, but he and Sadler look like misses. So here you have 3 good picks, 3 misses (including a big one), and 3 maybes.
In 2011 the Pirates took 11 more big bonus guys. And it is too early to rule any of these guys out and it should be noted that the Pirates likely knew this was the last year they could do the bonus game, so why not throw a lot of money around. They did, so maybe we ought to be a little easy on them for going for broke the last year one could. Josh Bell is the highlight of this group, and he was doing great before a knee injury ended the season for him. While Dickerson (3rd round pick) was disappointing, but not awful, the Pirates look pretty good in this group. Candon Myles hit .279 and has speed. Colten Brewer had an up and down year but is striking out 6.5 per 9 innings. Tyler Glasnow was at 10 K/9. Jake Burnette struggled, but was pitching at Low A, which ought to be remembered. The same is true of Jason Creasy. They are still interesting prospects. Clay Holmes also pitched at Low A, and frankly was pretty good winning 5. Walks are a bit high, but that is to be expected. I think Holmes may make the jump to West Virginia this next year. Taylor Lewis was okay, and Dan Gamache was good and shows utility infield kind of defense. The only one that looks to be shaping up as a miss is Jordan Cooper who is throwing out the bullpen and giving up lots of long balls (almost 3 per 9 innings).
2012 is way to early to read, but the number of big bonuses is now really kind of set at 10 thanks to the new CBA. The Pirates look like they got a real winner in Wyatt Mathewson who tore up Rookie league along with Max Moroff. Interestingly Moroff walked more than he struck out. Eric Wood did well there too. Barrett Barnes looked good in Low A. Sandfort struggled a bit in 8 appearances, but that is to be expected. Adrian Sampson was striking out 9 per 9 innings with a nice 2.82 ERA. And John Kuchno only threw 5 innings.
And remember this does not say anything about late round finds that are turning out well and signed for under $100,000 like Matt Curry and Phil Irwin, both of whom look like the have at least limited MLB roles in their future.
It is possible that the draft strategy of Neal Hunington is only going to be right 50% of the time. Still, is that a bad failure rate? The big miss of Allie has many questioning the decisions. Even if you think that this is an unacceptable draft philosophy it is all moot now. MLB got rid of that possibility in the CBA with the hard slotting system. Now Neal cannot do it anymore. So, I think the draft should not be a reason to fire NH. And I think it is a possibility that the Pirates are going to end up with a lot of good players from the last two drafts under the old system (10 and 11). I think you can see that Neal grew in his drafts. In 09 he threw money at young projectable pitchers. He still did a lot of that in 10 and 11, but also moved on to get good position players. Players like Josh Bell, Candon Myles, and Max Moroff are exciting additions and less likely to flop big as some high school pitching arms. The growth of the Pirates in the draft has me excited for drafts, which was never true under the old regime. Let us not forget how bad it was when we drafted Daniel Moskos and Bryan Bullington. Those days are gone. Let us rejoice and be glad in it.
Friday, September 14, 2012
Why 2 Wild Cards is a bad idea
The Pirates are one game over .500 now, and probably will finish the season well under. But the Pirates still have a chance to make the playoffs as they are only 3 games out (if the Cards lose tonight and they are down 4 in the 8th).
This is a prime example of why the two wild card teams is a bad idea. Right now no one in the NL wants that final wild card spot. The hottest team is the Brewers who are tied with the Pirates, and also lost tonight now that the post season is a real possibility. For any of these teams to play post season ball will be an embarrassment.
What is worse is how two wild cards is ruining what would be an amazing division chase in the AL East. Baltimore is tied for the lead with the Yanks, and the Rays are just 2 out. Can you imagine the drama if only the winner of the division moved on? These games where they have been playing head to head would come close to beating out the beginning of the NFL. Would this be a huge collapse for the Yanks? It would be panic time in the Bronx. Instead both Baltimore and the Yanks are in playoff position and the only story is if the Rays can come back to overtake one of them. Worse yet, with a second wild card the Rays could also make the playoffs if the A's falter at all. Three teams from one division could all make the playoffs. A potentially historic division race rendered pointless. Thanks MLB. Thanks for nothing.
This is a prime example of why the two wild card teams is a bad idea. Right now no one in the NL wants that final wild card spot. The hottest team is the Brewers who are tied with the Pirates, and also lost tonight now that the post season is a real possibility. For any of these teams to play post season ball will be an embarrassment.
What is worse is how two wild cards is ruining what would be an amazing division chase in the AL East. Baltimore is tied for the lead with the Yanks, and the Rays are just 2 out. Can you imagine the drama if only the winner of the division moved on? These games where they have been playing head to head would come close to beating out the beginning of the NFL. Would this be a huge collapse for the Yanks? It would be panic time in the Bronx. Instead both Baltimore and the Yanks are in playoff position and the only story is if the Rays can come back to overtake one of them. Worse yet, with a second wild card the Rays could also make the playoffs if the A's falter at all. Three teams from one division could all make the playoffs. A potentially historic division race rendered pointless. Thanks MLB. Thanks for nothing.
Friday, September 7, 2012
What the Pirates still need . . .
While it is entirely possible that the Pirates make the playoffs this year, they are clearly a team lacking something. They are not playoff ready. What exactly is it?
I have a slightly different view than many. I think the Pirates are pretty set at the positions. Sure you could upgrade a few, and probably for a World Series run, one of the weak positions needs to be upgraded. The weak positions are: catcher, short stop, and corner outfield. However, corner outfield was a bit of problem this year because of the unexpected regression of Jose Tabata. And with Sterling Marte coming up, I think the corner outfield position is going to be fine. I think with only a weak short stop who can play defense, and a catcher who is at least a power threat from time to time, the Pirates are fine offensively.
The problem is with pitching. And it is not with the bullpen. The Pirates have bullpen depth in AAA including Morris, Wilson, and soon Victor Black. Plus, the front office has a track record of adding the right free agent pieces there. It is starting pitching that is the problem.
Let me start with James McDonald. Everyone has him penciled in next year as a key piece of the rotation, but I think he is a liability. McDonald had a good first half and has struggled lately. Sounds a lot like Charlie Morton last year. Morton has been on the DL, but if you remember was not so good at the beginning of this year. The problem with the Pirates staff is that they are depending on people who have a one good year, or a good half a year. Other than Burnett, who is aging, the Pirates do not have a dependable front line starter. In Jeff Karstens they have a dependable back of the rotation guy. He is not going to overpower any teams, but will keep you in most games. Wandy Rodreguiz was a great trade acquisition because of this very reason. He has been the guy on the Astros, which means he is probably a 3 man. So the Pirates have three guys in their rotation for next year. McDonald will not duplicate his early success, and will end up hurting the team as he has at the end of the year. Correia is more effective.
The hope for next year is not Cole, who has yet to show his stuff in AAA. He may be up mid year at the earliest, but he should not be counted on as a front line guy. Jeff Locke could be ready. They need him to turn out to be a good pitcher since they traded away Rudy Owens. Kyle McPhearson also has the high K rate and a speedy fastball, but he was injured most of this year, so expect him to repeat AAA. The load then is squarely on the shoulders of Locke. That is not really a recipe for a good run next year. Hopefully the Pirates will be able to compete again, but it could be another disappointing season next year.
The Pirates need to set their sights on 2014. That year should be a full year of a now fairly experienced Gerrit Cole, a second year for Locke, and the year Taillon arrives mid season. Add that to Wandy, Burnett, and maybe McPhearson, and the Pirate rotation starts to look like a top of the line rotation. That is when I expect to make the deep run into the playoffs and World Series.
Of course the Pirates could surprise me with a Free Agent signing that addresses the problem, but it is going to be a tough market to do that. I think they feel they addressed it as best they could with Wandy. The future is very bright for the Pirates, but unless the Cards collapse, this year is not the year.
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